September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The smell of smoke is very noticeable today here....

That map is quite a bit worse.   

No hint of smoke here this morning... visibility is very good.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That map is quite a bit worse.   

No hint of smoke here this morning... visibility is very good.

Well tangibly it is very noticeable here right now no matter what maps or guidance are saying.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Well tangibly it is very noticeable here right now no matter what maps or guidance are saying.

Oh well...  it will be gone tomorrow.    

Smoke models don't show much for today.   Its just a thin layer.

     

 

[Deweydog]

Could be a phun evening!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Could be a phun evening!

Haven't been paying attention farther south... but it does get active down there later today.

[Doinko]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Haven't been paying attention farther south... but it does get active down there later today.

Do you have the lightning map?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Do you have the lightning map?

Good call... active!  

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Good call... active!  

Thanks! I wasn't really paying attention so I didn't know there would be another chance today. Last Friday morning was a great light show

[Doinko]

NAM has some soaking storms

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

NAM has some soaking storms

 

These could be juicy if we get hit by one. Models have them developing in the vicinity later this evening. September is our big thunderstorm month for whatever reason. 2013 and 2020 had some epic storms. The end of our road washed out in September 2020 when we got 1.79” of rain in about 90 minutes. 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These could be juicy if we get hit by one. Models have them developing in the vicinity later this evening. September is our big thunderstorm month for whatever reason. 2013 and 2020 had some epic storms. The end of our road washed out in September 2020 when we got 1.79” of rain in about 90 minutes. 

Same with 2019. One day that month had 2.17" of rain and 1.88" of that in an hour.

[MossMan]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Haven't been paying attention farther south... but it does get active down there later today.

And the north gets missed once again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, Doinko said:

NAM has some soaking storms

 

Score one for Central Nevada.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Same with 2019. One day that month had 2.17" of rain and 1.88" of that in an hour.

We definitely had some in 2019 too. The event in 2013 took the cake, nearly 4” of rain. A very dry year, but almost 13” in September, a record breaking month.

[Omegaraptor]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Score one for Central Nevada.

Great climate out there!

[T-Town]

RIP Jimmy Buffet.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I was just thinking about this and it’s pretty depressing knowing that almost every summer now we seem to be experiencing our hottest month ever. Definitely a rapid warming and drying trend here that should be very concerning for others to the north as our conditions are often a precursor to what will happen to them. Like when winter weather is scoured out and we warm up first, then it creeps northward.

This doesn’t make any sense. The whole region is warming relative to their climo. It’s not like there’s a line of warming climate that is moving northward through Oregon and hasn’t reached Seattle yet. The warming is fairly uniform regardless of latitude. Look at what western Canada saw this summer.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

And the north gets missed once again. 

now you know what it’s like to sit in 38 degree drizzly mediocrity while members a couple hundred miles away gloat about scoring another Arctic blast! Lol isn’t that funny

[SilverFallsAndrew]

33 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This doesn’t make any sense. The whole region is warming relative to their climo. It’s not like there’s a line of warming climate that is moving northward through Oregon and hasn’t reached Seattle yet. The warming is fairly uniform regardless of latitude. Look at what western Canada saw this summer.

Seattle’s climate now is what Portlands was a few decades ago. 

[Jakewestsalem]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These could be juicy if we get hit by one. Models have them developing in the vicinity later this evening. September is our big thunderstorm month for whatever reason. 2013 and 2020 had some epic storms. The end of our road washed out in September 2020 when we got 1.79” of rain in about 90 minutes. 

This was 2020 after about 35 minutes of rain/hail that turned our house into an island.

It was bad enough that the rats that live along our creek were scrambling throughout the neighborhood

[ShawniganLake]

BC has seen 4.8 million acres burned in wildfires this season.  Prior to 2017 the worst year was 1958 with roughly 2.1 million acres burned. 

[Dave]

Eugene's avg temperature of 72.5 for August probably would have been a bit higher if not for the smoke anomalies. But I suppose the smoke is going to be the norm going forward. And that sucks

 

[T-Town]

51 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This doesn’t make any sense. The whole region is warming relative to their climo. It’s not like there’s a line of warming climate that is moving northward through Oregon and hasn’t reached Seattle yet. The warming is fairly uniform regardless of latitude. Look at what western Canada saw this summer.

Agreed. The dry is more noticeable here than the heat. The dry brings smoke, which I don’t ever recall prior to the last ten years or so. 

[ChristheElohim]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure the GFS is too warm for today... but shows quite the crash by tomorrow.    Then all the models seem to show a slow and steady warm up.   Very little rain in sight now... although the mountains and foothills will get some tomorrow and Monday.

What areas of King/Pierce County would you consider Foothills?

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

What areas of King/Pierce County would you consider Foothills?

Areas east of highway 18 is probably a good defining line. Enumclaw, Black Diamond, Ravensdale, Maple Valley, North Bend, Snoqualmie, Duvall etc.

[ChristheElohim]

7 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Areas east of highway 18 is probably a good defining line. Enumclaw, Black Diamond, Ravensdale, Maple Valley, North Bend, Snoqualmie, Duvall etc.

I've always considered it to be East of this line where overall most these locations are 500ft and over except for some Foothill valleys like Orting, lower Issaquah and I'm sure many other locations East of that line that's under 500ft but have surrounding hills 500ft or higher. Here in Pierce County Graham, Orting, Kapowsin, Eatonville, Bonney Lake etc... Are examples of what I have considered foothills out here 

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

I've always considered it to be East of this line where overall most these locations are 500ft and over except for some Foothill valleys like Orting, lower Issaquah and I'm sure many other locations East of that line that's under 500ft but have surrounding hills 500ft or higher.

Yea makes sense. All of those areas are mostly 500+ feet and gradually rise up till you hit the front range of the Cascades. I was only using Highway 18 as a defining road for reference. 

[ChristheElohim]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea makes sense. All of those areas are mostly 500+ feet and gradually rise up till you hit the front range of the Cascades. I was only using Highway 18 as a defining road for reference. 

Kinda lines up I guess with the EPSL zone from NWS. Not sure what they don't say foothills.

[Cascadia_Wx]

28 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Agreed. The dry is more noticeable here than the heat. The dry brings smoke, which I don’t ever recall prior to the last ten years or so. 

Definitely, that makes sense for places closer to the sound. Some natural AC there, but no way to get around the lengthening dry seasons. The change in climate is definitely a regional/global thing, and it’s kind of impossible to say if one part of the region is getting it worse than others. It’s all relative to climo.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

55 minutes ago, Dave said:

Eugene's avg temperature of 72.5 for August probably would have been a bit higher if not for the smoke anomalies. But I suppose the smoke is going to be the norm going forward. And that sucks

 

Did they beat 1967?

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did they beat 1967?

Yes. I noticed I was incorrect previously. 1967 was the previous record of 72.0. 71.5 from last August was also achieved on 2 occasions.

 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has been trending warmer for tomorrow and now shows mid 70s but still shows a decent marine push tonight... low clouds are more persistent on Monday but does show some afternoon breaks and a little clearing.  

[Dave]

Looks like Portland's all time record warmest month was set in July. 75.4 degrees. They also set their all time record August at 72.5 degrees. Holy shiznit this is getting ridiculous.   

[Front Ranger]

11 hours ago, Dave said:

From the best I can tell, Aug 2023 was Eugene's all time warmest month in terms of avg temperature at 72.5. 2nd place was 71.5 from Aug 2022. I could also be wrong as I've had a couple of drinks.

August 1967 was warmer than August 2022. August 2023 was EUG's warmest month on record, and August 1967 comes in second. July 2015 is third, barely beating out August 2022.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This doesn’t make any sense. The whole region is warming relative to their climo. It’s not like there’s a line of warming climate that is moving northward through Oregon and hasn’t reached Seattle yet. The warming is fairly uniform regardless of latitude. Look at what western Canada saw this summer.

While your point is true, it's also fair to acknowledge that the warmth has been more pronounced further south recently.

EUG has set 8 record warm months since 2014. OLM has seen 4.

[Dave]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

August 1967 was warmer than August 2022. August 2023 was EUG's warmest month on record, and August 1967 comes in second. July 2015 is third, barely beating out August 2022.

Yep. I corrected it a few minutes ago. July 2015 and August 2022 both show 71.5 on ACIS, so I have no idea which one is higher. I'm guessing you are getting your info in a much better method than that. Can you provide me a linky?

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, Dave said:

Looks like Portland's all time record warmest month was set in July. 75.4 degrees. They also set their all time record August at 72.5 degrees. Holy shiznit this is getting ridiculous.   

Not sure where you're getting your stats from...PDX's all-time record warm July is 1985. They did set their record warm August this summer.

If you look at the more rural stations nearby though, the picture is not quite as "ridiculous".

Battle Ground, for example, did not see a record warm August. Theirs is still 1967. They also have not seen a record warm July in recent years. They did see a record warm June in 2021. But all in all, they've seen significantly fewer record warm months than PDX in the last 10 years.

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, Dave said:

Looks like Portland's all time record warmest month was set in July. 75.4 degrees. They also set their all time record August at 72.5 degrees. Holy shiznit this is getting ridiculous.   

Think you’re mixing up the numbers for July and August. But yeah it’s still unsettling. Beats a 1993 crummer redux tho!?!1!!

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Dave said:

Yep. I corrected it a few minutes ago. July 2015 and August 2022 both show 71.5 on ACIS, so I have no idea which one is higher. I'm guessing you are getting your info in a much better method than that. Can you provide me a linky?

Sure: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or6751

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

While your point is true, it's also fair to acknowledge that the warmth has been more pronounced further south recently.

EUG has set 8 record warm months since 2014. OLM has seen 4.

Sure seems that rapid warmth has been…working its way north.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sure seems that rapid warmth has been…working its way north.

How do you explain this year in California then?

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Think you’re mixing up the numbers for July and August. But yeah it’s still unsettling. Beats a 1993 crummer redux tho!?!1!!

Yep. I'm gonna step away from the temp stats for now. I was looking on ACIS and mixed up the months. 

 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Think you’re mixing up the numbers for July and August. But yeah it’s still unsettling. Beats a 1993 crummer redux tho!?!1!!

Someone is lashing out.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

While your point is true, it's also fair to acknowledge that the warmth has been more pronounced further south recently.

EUG has set 8 record warm months since 2014. OLM has seen 4.

 

[TT-SEA]

Sling shot effect with that trough late this week as new trough digs farther west.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

How do you explain this year in California then?

I suppose you guys will be leveling off in your warming and drying rate then?

[Front Ranger]

Speaking of EUG...pretty crazy how they went from an unprecedented run without any real "cool" days (no sub-80s from 7/11-8/26) to now seeing 5 of the last 6 days since that streak ended fail to reach 80 - and two failed to hit 70.

They're supposed to hit 80+ today, but that is looking unlikely. And then there's a good chance they see 3-4 more sub-80 days starting tomorrow.

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

 

I constantly use OLM, and it's a good comparison point for EUG since they're both small airports away from the city, without little to no UHI.

You might want to look up the definition of cherry-picking again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 minutes ago, Dave said:

Yes. I noticed I was incorrect previously. 1967 was the previous record of 72.0. 71.5 from last August was also achieved on 2 occasions.

 

Wow. 

[Dave]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Speaking of EUG...pretty crazy how they went from an unprecedented run without any real "cool" days (no sub-80s from 7/11-8/26) to now seeing 5 of the last 6 days since that streak ended fail to reach 80 - and two failed to hit 70.

They're supposed to hit 80+ today, but that is looking unlikely. And then there's a good chance they see 3-4 more sub-80 days starting tomorrow.

We'll almost certainly see 80 today as the clouds/potential rain hasn't materialized for the most part. Already 77. But yes, the chilly air the last few days has been thoroughly enjoyable.