10/25 - 10/31 Hurricane Norma and a series of storms bring heavy rainfall and possible snow to the central US

[Bryan1117]

With the cold front about to pass through in the next few hours, it looks like I will end up with 0.11" of rain from this system... nothing even close to the widespread 1 to 3" of rain that was forecasted by the models a couple days ago. 

The heavier precipitation/ snow this weekend looks miss to the north as expected, as this pesky Eastern Nebraska dry air bubble just refuses to give way. Congrats to those who got some much needed rainfall... we will get ours at some point too, just might have to wait another few weeks or months LOL.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

In the past 36 hours I have 1.20.  A top 3 wet day  in 2023.  I have 1.37 for this entire  system.  Kudos to @Tom, but sadly the pocket of heavy rain needed to produce real runoff avoided  me. But several  hours of  light to at times moderate  rain.  But as of today every month April to Oct is below avg precip. 2.20  in October  still chance I get more.

[Stormy]

31 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

In the past 36 hours I have 1.20.  A top 3 wet day  in 2023.  I have 1.37 for this entire  system.  Kudos to @Tom, but sadly the pocket of heavy rain needed to produce real runoff avoided  me. But several  hours of  light to at times moderate  rain.  But as of today every month April to Oct is below avg precip. 2.20  in October  still chance I get more.

That's a lot better than what fell here!  I really got screwed from this whole system with one of the lowest amounts in all of se. Ia. Event total from the last few days still only around 0.65" here. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Enjoying what looks to be my last cool low for a few days in Kentucky. Some 60+ degree mornings are forecast here.

Got to 48 this morning after a high of 80 yesterday. At least we have evening cool offs, more so compared to back in September. There are mosquitos flying around at certain hours (and wasps too), though the numbers are decreasing each day. 

I still hear a Lesser Angle-wing katydid at night which is kind of surprising. I thought they were exclusively a Summer insect (to perhaps early Fall, but its later!).

Heard them here in W Detroit the past couple of evenings. Very surprised considering it was sub-freezing Monday morning. I think they were still going in Marshall back in October 2017 but that was so hot a month I remember doing yard work in shorts and sweating like it was summer. More understandable then than now. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[hawkstwelve]

Only 0.26 in the bucket between yesterday and today. The Euro was showing over 2 inches as late as Tuesday's run. It did whittle down over the past few runs but the GFS definitely had the upper hand with it consistently showing below 0.5 inches. Kudos where they're due. 

[Hawkeye]

A little disturbance, out ahead of the front, moved through eastern Iowa early this morning.  I got pretty lucky as two small, but heavy, cells moved over Cedar Rapids.  I picked up a very quick 0.37".  That boosts my weekly total to 1.98".

[bud2380]

GFS hammers Denver.  The Chiefs play in Denver Sunday, should be cold but the snow should be mostly on its way out by game time.  

[Clinton]

Feels pretty raw outside with drizzle and a temp of 45. Looks like I may pick up more decent rainfall with most models showing 1/2 to 1 inch of rain tomorrow night and Sunday maybe some flakes mixing in also.

[hawkstwelve]

Tomorrow's snow is looking less and less likely up here. WPC probabilities of 2 inches or more went from 60-70% to 20-30%. Our chance of an inch still stands at 60-70% but at this rate, I'm not expecting much more than some snow in the air. It's never good to be on the dry northern side of a deformation band. 

On the bright side, today was the first sunny day we've had all week. Super refreshing. It was chilly though, with a brisk north wind contributing to the winter-like temperatures. Topped out at 38 but now only sitting at 30 with a wind chill of 25. Should bottom out in the low 20s tonight. Brrrr. 

[hawkstwelve]

Almost every 00z mesoscale model run so far (NAM, FV3, WRF) has come in much weaker and drier for snowfall tomorrow, across the board. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Forecast yesterday was for 1/2” total. Upped just a little for snowfall. Will all depend where the band this evening sets up. 

[Tom]

This has been a rather impressive 1st Winter Storm of the Season for the northern tier of the U.S.  Keep em' coming!

 

North Dakota did quite well I'd say... 

 

 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Forecast yesterday was for 1/2” total. Upped just a little for snowfall. Will all depend where the band this evening sets up. 

I'm waiting on the 12z HRRR but based on radar returns than are starting to develop down by Wichita and SW Nebraska the 6z did a pretty good job.  I'm excited about more rainfall and what looks like will be my first flakes of the season flying around tomorrow afternoon.  1-3 up your way isn't bad to kick things off, good luck and maybe it will over achieve for ya.

[OKwx2k4]

Steady and heavier rainfall getting underway this morning. Rather different than yesterday's more warm and humid airmass.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Steady and heavier rainfall getting underway this morning. Rather different than yesterday's more warm and humid airmass.

Lots of rain for you this weekend. This storm has me excited thinking about what it may do this winter.

[jaster220]

54 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lots of rain for you this weekend. This storm has me excited thinking about what it may do this winter.

Ended up further south over here. Nice for SOH Valley tho. Enjoy your rainstorm Clinton!

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Ended up further south over here. Nice for SOH Valley tho. Enjoy your rainstorm Clinton!

I will from the inside. Cold rain with temps in the upper 30s.

[Clinton]

I've gotten a 1/2 inch of additional rainfall today with more expected overnight and tomorrow. Once again the I-35 corridor in eastern Kansas into KC looks to be where the higher totals are. Hotspot in the making.

[CentralNebWeather]

My nephew from KC went to the Husker game today. He said it’s the coldest he’s ever been in his life. My daughter also went with friends. They could only make it to the end of the 3rd. It only got to 28 here with a strong wind all day. Nasty. First flakes of the year just started falling. Now in a WWA for 1-3”. Good start to the winter season in October. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Ground is white as the snow continues. 

[gabel23]

Didn’t get much precip but getting the first flakes of the year!

[Stormy]

The only wintry precipitation here was a trace of sleet last evening. It still hasn't reached 32⁰ in the last few days because of cloudiness. Flowers are blooming yet, but a killing frreze should take care of them in a day or two. 

[Tom]

Nice snows fell over the CO Rockies...

 

[Clinton]

I ended up with 1.1 inches yesterday and overnight bringing my weekly total to 3.2 inches. 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

I ended up with 1.1 inches yesterday and overnight bringing my weekly total to 3.2 inches. 

Are your ponds full?  I meant to ask you, how did your cattle do this year?

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

I've gotten a 1/2 inch of additional rainfall today with more expected overnight and tomorrow. Once again the I-35 corridor in eastern Kansas into KC looks to be where the higher totals are. Hotspot in the making.

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

I ended up with 1.1 inches yesterday and overnight bringing my weekly total to 3.2 inches. 

DTW sitting at .21" with this event so far. The other big event gave them .32" thus see my post over in the seasonal thread regarding how the pattern is delivering nicely out your way (S Plains/Midwest) then fizzles as it heads east. We are also now +2.7F on the month courtesy of bookend torches. Our cool and wet summer has switched to warm and dry befitting of the Nino forecasts/effects. Yes, I am glad for y'all out west that were so parched. As for winter, I can always find snow in The Mitt, just a matter of how far north I need to roam, lol. 

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

Are your ponds full?  I meant to ask you, how did your cattle do this year?

Our cattle are doing great, we have some concerns about whether we will have enough hay this winter to make it through but I think we will.  Our ponds have a long ways to go.  The ground has soaked this rain up like a sponge so runoff has been on the light side.  The drought here was so severe that it will likely be spring before we get out of it even if the winter is on the wet side.  Here is a picture of the pond just outside my house.  You can see it still needs about 7 or 8 ft of water to fill it.

 

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

DTW sitting at .21" with this event so far. The other big event gave them .32" thus see my post over in the seasonal thread regarding how the pattern is delivering nicely out your way (S Plains/Midwest) then fizzles as it heads east. We are also now +2.7F on the month courtesy of bookend torches. Our cool and wet summer has switched to warm and dry befitting of the Nino forecasts/effects. Yes, I am glad for y'all out west that were so parched. As for winter, I can always find snow in The Mitt, just a matter of how far north I need to roam, lol. 

I hate to see it turn dry up there. With the LRC there are anchor troughs and ridges that develop in the pattern.  I hope you guys in the Mitt don't have a dirty ridge developing, that's what happened here last winter causing storm systems to weaken and fall apart as they moved into eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. 

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Our cattle are doing great, we have some concerns about whether we will have enough hay this winter to make it through but I think we will.  Our ponds have a long ways to go.  The ground has soaked this rain up like a sponge so runoff has been on the light side.  The drought here was so severe that it will likely be spring before we get out of it even if the winter is on the wet side.  Here is a picture of the pond just outside my house.  You can see it still needs about 7 or 8 ft of water to fill it.

 

Wow, that is interesting to see it still that low but on the flip side, its nice that the ground soaked it up.  I'm glad to hear about the cattle and I'm even more excited to see the pattern continues to deliver in your region.  

[Tom]

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I hate to see it turn dry up there. With the LRC there are anchor troughs and ridges that develop in the pattern.  I hope you guys in the Mitt don't have a dirty ridge developing, that's what happened here last winter causing storm systems to weaken and fall apart as they moved into eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. 

Ya, I can see this starting to show up as a pattern that will produce "Banana HP's" hanging around the GL's.  It Will be good for LES but could also suppress storms farther south at times.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Wow, that is interesting to see it still that low but on the flip side, its nice that the ground soaked it up.  I'm glad to hear about the cattle and I'm even more excited to see the pattern continues to deliver in your region.  

The Euro shows a lot of potential with the Election Day storm, add some blocking and it could get real interesting!

[CentralNebWeather]

Local law enforcement says 1.5” of snow. Some melting took place initially. Streets are frozen. Here is also the I80 exit north of me. 

[Clinton]

A little note here for future reference with this part of the pattern for mby.  The GFS had dominated the other models in terms of QPF until yesterday, it didn't do well at all.  It was way to dry and to far south with the precipitation shield.  The Euro did much better but wasn't that great either, hi-res models were late to the game.  The NAM, ICON and UKMET did the best job yesterday with the amounts and where the precip would fall.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Streets were very slick on my drive to church. Temp only 23 degrees. Light snow has started up again. Seems very much like Christmas. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

I hate to see it turn dry up there. With the LRC there are anchor troughs and ridges that develop in the pattern.  I hope you guys in the Mitt don't have a dirty ridge developing, that's what happened here last winter causing storm systems to weaken and fall apart as they moved into eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. 

I was in WMI yesterday and surprised to see some ponds very low (barely any) on water levels. Not everywhere but noticeable more than once. Here in DTW-land, October coming in as the 2nd consecutive month with a rainfall shortfall. Sep/Oct deficit will be about 1.5" Yearly we remain AN thanks to JJA surplus of approximately 5". 

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Ya, I can see this starting to show up as a pattern that will produce "Banana HP's" hanging around the GL's.  It Will be good for LES but could also suppress storms farther south at times.

That HP up near Ottawa is just a little too East for comfort (looks like a classic 2009-10 snowstorm map for the EC). As such, DTW can catch glancing blows on the northern periphery of OHV systems like back in the cold 02-03 winter, but not a set-up to deliver the sweet spot across SMI. 

And what was a strong system to our west, is just a batch of frontal waves that wave at us as they pass on by to my south. I'm prepared for my 1-4" snowstorms during the cold phase of the upcoming winter. As for LES during a Nino. The classic warm and dry pattern votes against that. Instead of serious blasts south, the cold oozes down and keeps right on going to the moisture track down in SOHV and TN valley regions. At least that's the general pattern during stronger Nino's of the past. 

[Bryan1117]

This latest dud of a series of storm systems (for my area at least) left us in East Central Nebraska with just a few flurries and more cold and annoying wind… wash, rinse and repeat.

[jaster220]

Just realized this thread title runs thru Tuesday lol, so..

A compact, but very vigorous shortwave will sweep through the area
on Tuesday/Tuesday evening bringing even colder air into the central
Great Lakes. This system will produce scattered to numerous snow or
rain/snow showers especially from late morning hours into the early
evening as main forcing shifts through the region. As mentioned in
the previous forecast, it appears that this wave will be enhanced as
it encounters the relatively mild waters of Lake Michigan Tuesday.
Both forcing and moisture flux will be influenced as some degree of
a mesoscale surface low develops. For SE Lower MI, the best chance
for notable snow showers will occur as the remnants of this smaller
scale feature sweep southeast through/just southwest of the area
around 00z.

All said, at most expect some potential for several tenths of an
inch of wet accumulation on grassy surfaces where the most vigorous
snow showers set up. It is hard to ascertain the most favorable
location for this to occur, but with a trend to focus the mesoscale
enhancement over southern Lake Michigan, perhaps the best potential
for minor accumulations will be in the M-59 to I-94 corridor area
where some enhanced forcing will extend eastward from the actual
vorticity center, particularly over the higher terrain of northwest
Metro area on southwest into the Irish Hills.

Most exciting part of this entire event so I am tracking it.