10/25 - 10/31 Hurricane Norma and a series of storms bring heavy rainfall and possible snow to the central US

[Andie]

No place to put this really so I’ll mention it here.  Historic Hurricane Otis has apparently heavily damaged Acapulco with a Cat 5. 

Wow, Hurricane Otis became the 1st Pacific hurricane to reach Cat 5.  

Otis is said to have destroyed Acapulco. 
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/acapulco-destroyed-hurricane-otis-survivor

[hawkstwelve]

Probability map from the WPC of receiving 2 inches or more of snow on Saturday. 

[hawkstwelve]

Meanwhile, the latest GFS jumped back to the south a bit with the axis of heavier snowfall while the Euro remained steadfast in its positioning. It sure would be nice to have a little more agreement among the deterministic models of where this band will setup. We're starting to get in the range of mesoscale models so it'll be interesting to see what they say.

Ultimately though, as CentralNeb said, these are notoriously difficult to forecast and will probably boil down to a nowcast, watch-the-radar kind of day.  

[Stormy]

52 minutes ago, Stormy said:

I'm happy for you, and you did better than me. I was in a dryer strip with barely 0.40" overnight and not quite half an inch total here so far. But I'm still liking what the recent short-term models are showing with a heavy band of rain over or just to my northwest. And radar trends are encouraging downstream in Missouri and southern Iowa, heading for eastern Iowa it appears like. 

Maybe I spoke too soon. I don't like the looks of that dry hole on radar down in Missouri that's lined up with my area, and the heavier band is already just northwest of me.

[Tom]

39 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I got 0.53" overnight.  That's not terrible, but the big blob of rain vanished and split around us.  Our rain came from two brief downpours at the beginning and end.  Hopefully, we can get another half inch this morning.

It's blossoming right overhead!  Nice to see it filling in on radar over much of E IA...

 

[FV-Mike]

Radar looks great for SE Iowa!

[Andie]

Just waded out to the rain gauge.  
We received 5”, although it was full, so we may have received more.  I suspect so.  
I would venture a total of 10” in the last 7-10 days.  Remarkable after a drought. 

[mlgamer]

@MIKEKC @Tom Yeah this pattern definitely has future potential after already delivering big time in many areas this time around. Should be interesting to see what happens in future cycles over the winter.

I've been noticing this nice baroclinic zone showing up for the next system over the weekend. I haven't had one of these park in a favorable location near me for quite some time it seems. Need a nice strong storm to ride up this baby, if not this time then maybe in future cycles.

[hawkstwelve]

 

[hawkstwelve]

Slight shifts northward on the CMC over the past few runs. Looks pretty close to the Euro's positioning now.

GFS remains furthest south and most expansive with the snow over Nebraska.

[MIKEKC]

KC getting close to possible a wintry Sunday?? Let's see what this baby does. CMC and RGEM also show wintry precip. 

Chiefs play in Denver this week where they are expecting 2-4 inches of snow and highs not getting out of the 20's this Sunday. That will be 50 degrees colder than last weeks game in KC. 

[bud2380]

Snowfall totals so far.  Looks like the whole state of Montana is covered. 

 

[BMT]

getting some nice rain today.  just crossed 1.5" at my house.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Front has come back south. It was 62 degrees with a 61 dew at 6 am. Now at noon it is 48 degrees with a wind chill of 40 with north winds increasing to 20 mph. Cold only gets intensified in the coming days. 

[Madtown]

1.24" on the day up here....48 all day long. I'd take these past 3 weeks all winter long with a temp of 26

[Hawkeye]

My rain total is a real nice 1.49".  For about 5-10 minutes, late this morning, it may have been the heaviest rain of the year.  I love heavy rain, but there has been so little of it this year.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro. 

[Iceresistance]

Here it comes for Nebraska!
 

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
150 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023

NEZ006>010-023>028-035>038-270900-
/O.NEW.KLBF.WW.Y.0020.231028T0600Z-231029T1200Z/
Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-
Garfield-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-Custer-
Including the cities of Springview, Spencer, Butte, Lynch,
Ainsworth, Bassett, Rose, O`Neill, Atkinson, Hyannis, Mullen,
Thedford, Halsey, Dunning, Purdum, Brewster, Taylor, Burwell,
Arthur, Tryon, Ringgold, Stapleton, and Broken Bow
150 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 /1250 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2023/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/
SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow with accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Much of the Sandhills and north central Nebraska.

* WHEN...The snow will begin before or shortly after sunrise
  Saturday and end late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Accumulating of snow and ice will make travel
  hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet, or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving.

 

 

[Clinton]

31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro. 

Good to see the Euro cave to the GFS.  Good luck!

[Clinton]

I picked up a half inch this morning bringing my storm total to 2.2 inches.  Models in agreement with another half to 1 inch over the weekend which will make it a very nice change to what's been.

[Bryan1117]

With the cold front about to pass through in the next few hours, it looks like I will end up with 0.11" of rain from this system... nothing even close to the widespread 1 to 3" of rain that was forecasted by the models a couple days ago. 

The heavier precipitation/ snow this weekend looks miss to the north as expected, as this pesky Eastern Nebraska dry air bubble just refuses to give way. Congrats to those who got some much needed rainfall... we will get ours at some point too, just might have to wait another few weeks or months LOL.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

In the past 36 hours I have 1.20.  A top 3 wet day  in 2023.  I have 1.37 for this entire  system.  Kudos to @Tom, but sadly the pocket of heavy rain needed to produce real runoff avoided  me. But several  hours of  light to at times moderate  rain.  But as of today every month April to Oct is below avg precip. 2.20  in October  still chance I get more.

[Stormy]

31 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

In the past 36 hours I have 1.20.  A top 3 wet day  in 2023.  I have 1.37 for this entire  system.  Kudos to @Tom, but sadly the pocket of heavy rain needed to produce real runoff avoided  me. But several  hours of  light to at times moderate  rain.  But as of today every month April to Oct is below avg precip. 2.20  in October  still chance I get more.

That's a lot better than what fell here!  I really got screwed from this whole system with one of the lowest amounts in all of se. Ia. Event total from the last few days still only around 0.65" here. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Enjoying what looks to be my last cool low for a few days in Kentucky. Some 60+ degree mornings are forecast here.

Got to 48 this morning after a high of 80 yesterday. At least we have evening cool offs, more so compared to back in September. There are mosquitos flying around at certain hours (and wasps too), though the numbers are decreasing each day. 

I still hear a Lesser Angle-wing katydid at night which is kind of surprising. I thought they were exclusively a Summer insect (to perhaps early Fall, but its later!).

Heard them here in W Detroit the past couple of evenings. Very surprised considering it was sub-freezing Monday morning. I think they were still going in Marshall back in October 2017 but that was so hot a month I remember doing yard work in shorts and sweating like it was summer. More understandable then than now. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[hawkstwelve]

Only 0.26 in the bucket between yesterday and today. The Euro was showing over 2 inches as late as Tuesday's run. It did whittle down over the past few runs but the GFS definitely had the upper hand with it consistently showing below 0.5 inches. Kudos where they're due. 

[Hawkeye]

A little disturbance, out ahead of the front, moved through eastern Iowa early this morning.  I got pretty lucky as two small, but heavy, cells moved over Cedar Rapids.  I picked up a very quick 0.37".  That boosts my weekly total to 1.98".

[bud2380]

GFS hammers Denver.  The Chiefs play in Denver Sunday, should be cold but the snow should be mostly on its way out by game time.  

[Clinton]

Feels pretty raw outside with drizzle and a temp of 45. Looks like I may pick up more decent rainfall with most models showing 1/2 to 1 inch of rain tomorrow night and Sunday maybe some flakes mixing in also.

[hawkstwelve]

Tomorrow's snow is looking less and less likely up here. WPC probabilities of 2 inches or more went from 60-70% to 20-30%. Our chance of an inch still stands at 60-70% but at this rate, I'm not expecting much more than some snow in the air. It's never good to be on the dry northern side of a deformation band. 

On the bright side, today was the first sunny day we've had all week. Super refreshing. It was chilly though, with a brisk north wind contributing to the winter-like temperatures. Topped out at 38 but now only sitting at 30 with a wind chill of 25. Should bottom out in the low 20s tonight. Brrrr. 

[hawkstwelve]

Almost every 00z mesoscale model run so far (NAM, FV3, WRF) has come in much weaker and drier for snowfall tomorrow, across the board. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Forecast yesterday was for 1/2” total. Upped just a little for snowfall. Will all depend where the band this evening sets up. 

[Tom]

This has been a rather impressive 1st Winter Storm of the Season for the northern tier of the U.S.  Keep em' coming!

 

North Dakota did quite well I'd say... 

 

 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Forecast yesterday was for 1/2” total. Upped just a little for snowfall. Will all depend where the band this evening sets up. 

I'm waiting on the 12z HRRR but based on radar returns than are starting to develop down by Wichita and SW Nebraska the 6z did a pretty good job.  I'm excited about more rainfall and what looks like will be my first flakes of the season flying around tomorrow afternoon.  1-3 up your way isn't bad to kick things off, good luck and maybe it will over achieve for ya.

[OKwx2k4]

Steady and heavier rainfall getting underway this morning. Rather different than yesterday's more warm and humid airmass.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Steady and heavier rainfall getting underway this morning. Rather different than yesterday's more warm and humid airmass.

Lots of rain for you this weekend. This storm has me excited thinking about what it may do this winter.

[jaster220]

54 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lots of rain for you this weekend. This storm has me excited thinking about what it may do this winter.

Ended up further south over here. Nice for SOH Valley tho. Enjoy your rainstorm Clinton!

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Ended up further south over here. Nice for SOH Valley tho. Enjoy your rainstorm Clinton!

I will from the inside. Cold rain with temps in the upper 30s.

[Clinton]

I've gotten a 1/2 inch of additional rainfall today with more expected overnight and tomorrow. Once again the I-35 corridor in eastern Kansas into KC looks to be where the higher totals are. Hotspot in the making.

[CentralNebWeather]

My nephew from KC went to the Husker game today. He said it’s the coldest he’s ever been in his life. My daughter also went with friends. They could only make it to the end of the 3rd. It only got to 28 here with a strong wind all day. Nasty. First flakes of the year just started falling. Now in a WWA for 1-3”. Good start to the winter season in October. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Ground is white as the snow continues. 

[gabel23]

Didn’t get much precip but getting the first flakes of the year!

[Stormy]

The only wintry precipitation here was a trace of sleet last evening. It still hasn't reached 32⁰ in the last few days because of cloudiness. Flowers are blooming yet, but a killing frreze should take care of them in a day or two. 

[Tom]

Nice snows fell over the CO Rockies...

 

[Clinton]

I ended up with 1.1 inches yesterday and overnight bringing my weekly total to 3.2 inches. 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

I ended up with 1.1 inches yesterday and overnight bringing my weekly total to 3.2 inches. 

Are your ponds full?  I meant to ask you, how did your cattle do this year?

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

I've gotten a 1/2 inch of additional rainfall today with more expected overnight and tomorrow. Once again the I-35 corridor in eastern Kansas into KC looks to be where the higher totals are. Hotspot in the making.

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

I ended up with 1.1 inches yesterday and overnight bringing my weekly total to 3.2 inches. 

DTW sitting at .21" with this event so far. The other big event gave them .32" thus see my post over in the seasonal thread regarding how the pattern is delivering nicely out your way (S Plains/Midwest) then fizzles as it heads east. We are also now +2.7F on the month courtesy of bookend torches. Our cool and wet summer has switched to warm and dry befitting of the Nino forecasts/effects. Yes, I am glad for y'all out west that were so parched. As for winter, I can always find snow in The Mitt, just a matter of how far north I need to roam, lol. 

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

Are your ponds full?  I meant to ask you, how did your cattle do this year?

Our cattle are doing great, we have some concerns about whether we will have enough hay this winter to make it through but I think we will.  Our ponds have a long ways to go.  The ground has soaked this rain up like a sponge so runoff has been on the light side.  The drought here was so severe that it will likely be spring before we get out of it even if the winter is on the wet side.  Here is a picture of the pond just outside my house.  You can see it still needs about 7 or 8 ft of water to fill it.

 

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

DTW sitting at .21" with this event so far. The other big event gave them .32" thus see my post over in the seasonal thread regarding how the pattern is delivering nicely out your way (S Plains/Midwest) then fizzles as it heads east. We are also now +2.7F on the month courtesy of bookend torches. Our cool and wet summer has switched to warm and dry befitting of the Nino forecasts/effects. Yes, I am glad for y'all out west that were so parched. As for winter, I can always find snow in The Mitt, just a matter of how far north I need to roam, lol. 

I hate to see it turn dry up there. With the LRC there are anchor troughs and ridges that develop in the pattern.  I hope you guys in the Mitt don't have a dirty ridge developing, that's what happened here last winter causing storm systems to weaken and fall apart as they moved into eastern Kansas and Western Missouri.