10/25 - 10/31 Hurricane Norma and a series of storms bring heavy rainfall and possible snow to the central US

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I wish some folks would  stop leaning on models and use some common  sense. I know that microclimates  exist.  And so do things like "drought begets drought" that is particularly  true in the summer months.   But in my  17 years of living in this area its very mysterious  to me. How can model be so horribly  wrong for one particular area?  Most mets  could care less as to if these things exist or why.  Particularly  in these  humble mostly rural areas. If my town was a city   of 200k..  this would  be daily conversation!  Trust me theres something  odd about  SE iowa particularly  Ottumwa  Bloomfield, Centerville, Fairfield weatherwise 

Feeling your pain here as well OttumwaSnomow, as we both seem to be stuck in this neverending pattern of missing out on moisture from these powerhouse storm systems. Over the weekend, the models were showing a long duration rain event that should have started earlier today and was supposed to last through Thursday night. Here in Omaha we didn't even get a sprinkle today, and now things seem to be drying up for tomorrow as the precipitation splits north and south around here as usual. What was looking like a solid 2-3" rainfall across Eastern Nebraska might end up being an inch or less... again!

As much as things change with the weather... it sure seems to stay the same here. Hopefully I am wrong and the cold front delivers the goods later tomorrow night and on Thursday - I am not optimistic though. 

[james1976]

.62" up here today. Local mets earlier had most of it south but its been a rainy evening here and even some thunder.

[Andie]

We’re sitting at 72*. Intermittent rain.  
More tomorrow.  
Thus is what we needed. It’s all slowly soaking into very thirsty ground.   Another day tomorrow starting in the afternoon most likely.  
Looking forward to the total on this event.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

26 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Feeling your pain here as well OttumwaSnomow, as we both seem to be stuck in this neverending pattern of missing out on moisture from these powerhouse storm systems. Over the weekend, the models were showing a long duration rain event that should have started earlier today and was supposed to last through Thursday night. Here in Omaha we didn't even get a sprinkle today, and now things seem to be drying up for tomorrow as the precipitation splits north and south around here as usual. What was looking like a solid 2-3" rainfall across Eastern Nebraska might end up being an inch or less... again!

As much as things change with the weather... it sure seems to stay the same here. Hopefully I am wrong and the cold front delivers the goods later tomorrow night and on Thursday - I am not optimistic though. 

Whats your precip deficit  for 2023?  We are near 17 inches! And I remember  in August  2022 we had a 15 inch deficit!  The deficits in moisture  going back to 2012 would blow the mind here.

[Bryan1117]

16 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Whats your precip deficit  for 2023?  We are near 17 inches! And I remember  in August  2022 we had a 15 inch deficit!  The deficits in moisture  going back to 2012 would blow the mind here.

Wow, that's a ridiculous deficit and it puts things in perspective... here in the Omaha metro our deficit is anywhere from 6 to 8 inches for 2023 so far (on top of the 10+ inch deficit from 2022). 

It would be nice to get a nice west to east bowling ball type system to dump on Eastern Nebraska and all of Iowa, however that doesn't seem to be in the cards for us at this point. 

[hawkstwelve]

GFS trending further south with the Saturday system. At this rate it might end up near @CentralNebWeather

[hawkstwelve]

CMC also trending further south with that Saturday snow. 

[Black Hole]

Next round of showers and maybe a thunderstorm moving in tomorrow, with the peak being the afternoon hours through Thursday morning. 

Looks like a break and then more action Saturday-Sunday. Pretty hefty storm totals on top of the 2/3 of an inch I got today.

[Black Hole]

What's interesting is that we are suddenly looking marginal for mixed precip Sunday. I mean I would definitely still say its unlikely, maybe a 5% chance or something, but its not 0. GFS has 925 mb temps of -1C for much of the day Sunday with moderate rain and a gusty north wind. It drops temps to 35F or so. The CMC is similar. 

Several GEFS ensemble members showing mixed precip of sleet or ZR. 

 

So in the end, yeah, probably nothing...but its going to be mighty raw. But I could easily see some mixed precip making it down into Kansas or western OK. 

 

[Black Hole]

Comparing the 00z GEFS to earlier guidance we can see the move towards a more consolidated trough which is likely why we've also seen a shift south in the cold and better dynamics over the cold air.

[Clinton]

Off and on rain overnight has brought my rainfall total up to .75 inches.  The rain has been on all night along I-35 from Wichita to KC where several flood warning are in effect.  Curious to hear what the totals are for the KC guys.  More heavy rain in the area today and tonight, it is more than welcome to target mby. 

[Clinton]

Hi-Res models have been doing a good job with identifying where the heavy bands will set up.  So here is what the have for today and tomorrow as round 2 pulls out of the SW.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS trending further south with the Saturday system. At this rate it might end up near @CentralNebWeather

NWS Hastings morning disco just mentioned that snow forecasts are trending south. Even mention potential for 1-3 to 2-4” of snow Saturday. They said temp forecast continues to also be lowered. Stay tuned. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just had a quick moving thunderstorm come through that dropped a surprising 0.15”, most forecasts had kept rainfall south and east of me. 
 

Update, got 0.31” as I just checked my app. Very foggy and misty right now with a temp of 47 degrees. 

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings morning disco just mentioned that snow forecasts are trending south. Even mention potential for 1-3 to 2-4” of snow Saturday. They said temp forecast continues to also be lowered. Stay tuned. 

6z GFS has this for ya.

0z Euro

[Andie]

71-82 today.  
Rain out west on the way. Then partly cloudy.   It’s been really nice getting all this slow soaking rain.  

[MIKEKC]

 KC is winning! Beautiful rains from this storm and it appears we are in for more. I'm at 1.89 inches near the NE side of KC, but there are totals ranging from 1-4 inches across the city with the heaviest on the south side of KC. We sure needed this.

Now, could we see the back edge produce some sleet/snow by Sunday morning. No freeze in KC yet, flowers are still in full bloom. That may change by Monday/Tuesday morning. We'll see if some of the forecast lows of 25 verify. 

[mlgamer]

I have received only 0.37" so far while areas less than 60 miles from me have flash flooding.  Whatever long term weather pattern that causes me always to be on the short end is still in place.

@OttumwaSnomow and @Bryan1117 I hear you guys. I too believe that micro climates exist. An area roughly in a five mile radius around me has missed the beneficial rains pretty much every time this year. This goes on and on. It's hard to explain this to people because it seems so ridiculous.

It's especially noticeable in winter. It'll be 10 years in February that I have had a snowfall above 6" while areas near me have done much better. It's all very strange. 

[Tom]

Hey guys, I also missed out on some showers/storms that formed over E AZ and the White Mountains.  I loved looking at the cloud formations to my east but all I got was a nice easterly outflow in the evening while I was grilling some salmon and having some dessert on the patio deck.  Anyway, I'm rooting for you that have missed out on the rainfall... @OttumwaSnomow, tonight/tomorrow is your day...

[Clinton]

45 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I have received only 0.37" so far while areas less than 60 miles from me have flash flooding.  Whatever long term weather pattern that causes me always to be on the short end is still in place.

@OttumwaSnomow and @Bryan1117 I hear you guys. I too believe that micro climates exist. An area roughly in a five mile radius around me has missed the beneficial rains pretty much every time this year. This goes on and on. It's hard to explain this to people because it seems so ridiculous.

It's especially noticeable in winter. It'll be 10 years in February that I have had a snowfall above 6" while areas near me have done much better. It's all very strange. 

That area to your south seems to always get hit, same as se Jackson County who got several inches this morning. Hope ya have better luck tonight and through the weekend. 

[MIKEKC]

@mlgamer...look at radar, a huge area of rain just to your SW...I think you are about to go up in the rain totals...very slow moving.

 

Some reports of 4.5 inches of rain on the SW side of KC. 

[Hawkeye]

Models now show the final weekend system will almost totally miss Iowa to the south.  Ugh.  For a week models showed several waves of rain across Iowa, producing widespread 2-3".  Instead, the Thursday wave will be the only rain we get over the entire week.

[mlgamer]

39 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

@mlgamer...look at radar, a huge area of rain just to your SW...I think you are about to go up in the rain totals...very slow moving.

 

Some reports of 4.5 inches of rain on the SW side of KC. 

Maybe by calling out Mother Nature, I shamed her into making it rain here...lol. Then again, it appears the bulk of this heavy rain could miss me to the NW. Gets pretty comical...

Check out this graphic from NWS Topeka. I'm in the purple area (.25 - .50) just SW of Topeka. Pretty crazy totals in places.

[bud2380]

Close up of Nebraska for this weekend on the 12z GFS.  

 

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Close up of Nebraska for this weekend on the 12z GFS.  

 

Pretty close to my doorstep west of Kearney. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS and GEFS stopped the southward slide of the snow totals on Saturday, both correcting slightly to the north versus the previous two runs. Sioux City might end up the in-between sweet spot.

[OttumwaSnomow]

So far here .10 after 72 hours of forecasted rain.   Time will tell what next 4 days bring.

So I researched  some other locations  around the area.

Many in Iowa have 2023 deficits of  10 to 13 inches.  Places like dsm, Marshalltown, waterloo.  Some much smaller deficits  like Ames 4 inches or Lamoni. Kirksville  mo about a 6 inch deficit.   Kc  i think 4 or 5 inch deficit. I couldn't  find Omaha?  And if any deficits east of Mississippi  river theyre  not significant (by my standards).

I saw dallas tex has around 16 inch deficit.

Otm? Ottumwa  airport?

Almost 17 inch deficit!!!  Nearly 30 inch deficit  since jan 2022.

This pic is my pond. Its almost dry. The green basket  was on bottom  and its the location a aerator. I had it dredged in 2021. I was 70% full and i had clean  clear water and nice fish. Its so low I just gave up and its now a algea mess.

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro stayed steady with the axis of snowfall on Saturday and also brought back some light Halloween snow for parts of the Midwest. 

[Clinton]

Nice rain today added another inch bringing my storm total to 1.7 inches. Hopefully I can add to this the next few days.

[Clinton]

KC continues to rack up the rainfall.  I just saw a report on TV of 9.9 inches southwest of the city.  Just crazy when I'm 17 inches down for the year and thrilled with the 1.7 I've gotten so far lol. 

WS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

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As of 4:48 pm the Kansas City Airport has broken its daily rainfall record for October 25th with 1.13" so far today. The old record was 1.12" from 1898.

 

 

4:51 PM · Oct 25, 2023

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2,221

[mlgamer]

Amazingly, I added another 0.37" today so far to go with my 0.37" overnight for a storm total of 0.74".  Not shabby but nothing even remotely close to the prolific totals to the south and east. Beggars can't be choosers I guess...

[gabel23]

Well what looked like a great chance of a soaking turns into a dud for me. Sitting at .03” for the past couple of days and not looking for much more. Will see if I luck out with some snow…..

[CentralNebWeather]

13 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Well what looked like a great chance of a soaking turns into a dud for me. Sitting at .03” for the past couple of days and not looking for much more. Will see if I luck out with some snow…..

I’m up to a very surprising 0.45”. I’d have thought you’d get much more than my area. 

[Clinton]

Rainfall totals so far from around the KC area.

[hawkstwelve]

I will say it's pretty crappy how the rain has just skipped right over E Nebraska/Iowa over the past 72 hours. There's like a little bubble sitting over them. Hopefully ya'll will get your due eventually. 

[Bryan1117]

59 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I will say it's pretty crappy how the rain has just skipped right over E Nebraska/Iowa over the past 72 hours. There's like a little bubble sitting over them. Hopefully ya'll will get your due eventually. 

It's just beyond frustrating to see another promising moisture forecast 72 - 96 hours go completely bust... I have lost count how many times these systems "magically" split Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa. Not looking forward to the Winter months at all, unless something changes with this dreadful pattern... fingers crossed we will get our due over the next few months, however my optimism remains low. 

[Andie]

12 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

So far here .10 after 72 hours of forecasted rain.   Time will tell what next 4 days bring.

So I researched  some other locations  around the area.

Many in Iowa have 2023 deficits of  10 to 13 inches.  Places like dsm, Marshalltown, waterloo.  Some much smaller deficits  like Ames 4 inches or Lamoni. Kirksville  mo about a 6 inch deficit.   Kc  i think 4 or 5 inch deficit. I couldn't  find Omaha?  And if any deficits east of Mississippi  river theyre  not significant (by my standards).

I saw dallas tex has around 16 inch deficit.

Otm? Ottumwa  airport?

Almost 17 inch deficit!!!  Nearly 30 inch deficit  since jan 2022.

This pic is my pond. Its almost dry. The green basket  was on bottom  and its the location a aerator. I had it dredged in 2021. I was 70% full and i had clean  clear water and nice fish. Its so low I just gave up and its now a algea mess.

 

I hope our change this week brings you rain.  I’ll know better totals this event end of Thurs.  But we’ll be looking at around 6”.   Remarkable.  

I believe this is the swan song for this long dry damaging drought.  Farmers and ranchers will be so relieved as will your pond.  

[Black Hole]

1.02" for me for the last few days. Might get a few more hundredths tonight but I am not expecting much. Could get a little Friday too but probably less than a tenth of an inch.

 

The next real chance comes Sat-Sun as moist air overrides the low level cold. Looking at another half inch or maybe an inch of rain there. 

[Clinton]

The rain forecasted here overnight was a big bust.  Very light rain is just now moving in and radar returns are not very impressive this morning.  The RAP seems to have a good handle on the activity this morning and shows around 1/2 inch totals for mby today which might be a little optimistic. 

 

[Clinton]

@CentralNebWeather I'm jealous!

[OttumwaSnomow]

I got .73  overnight.  Not a drought buster, zero runoff. .86 for the week. Not  the rain the models had. But something.  I may get the  1" @Tom mentioned.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

@CentralNebWeather I'm jealous!

All going to depend on where that band sets up. Now they are saying it will likely be north of I80. Yesterday they said south of the interstate. In other words, they just don’t know. They mentioned yesterday it is very hard to forecast these bands that might only be a county or two wide. 

[Stormy]

16 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I got .73  overnight.  Not a drought buster, zero runoff. .86 for the week. Not  the rain the models had. But something.  I may get the  1" @Tom mentioned.

I'm happy for you, and you did better than me. I was in a dryer strip with barely 0.40" overnight and not quite half an inch total here so far. But I'm still liking what the recent short-term models are showing with a heavy band of rain over or just to my northwest. And radar trends are encouraging downstream in Missouri and southern Iowa, heading for eastern Iowa it appears like. 

[Clinton]

27 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

All going to depend on where that band sets up. Now they are saying it will likely be north of I80. Yesterday they said south of the interstate. In other words, they just don’t know. They mentioned yesterday it is very hard to forecast these bands that might only be a county or two wide. 

They never know but your chances of see flakes fly are very good.  Good luck on getting an early season snow.

[mlgamer]

I added .01" of drizzle overnight bringing my storm total to 0.75". That's not much considering the inches upon inches that fell in areas just to the south and east. I can already see these areas getting a foot of snow later in winter while I get my standard "inch or less".

[MIKEKC]

3.5 to 6.5 inches of rain in the KC area and still getting pounded this morning. DROUGHT BUSTER!!!

AND....another storm this weekend that just might turn a bit wintry in KC, looking very close to doing so on Sunday morning. 

 

Come on winter, be stormy and don't forget to be cold while being stormy. 

[Clinton]

Mother Nature called me out.  After the earlier post regarding the radar not looking impressive a nice band of moderate rain has set up overhead. 

[MIKEKC]

@mlgamer....just a bit outside...of the real good stuff. KC was in the sweet spot and we have not been in the sweet spot much of the year. Another storm this weekend that looks quite wet for both us and you look like you have a better chance of wintry precip. 

Even know you missed the big rains, at least we have an active weather pattern since the the new LRC started on Oct. 7th. These storms will act differently as they cycle all winter. This current set-up will likely be a major winter storm later in Dec. when it cycles back through with an arctic outbreak.

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I added .01" of drizzle overnight bringing my storm total to 0.75". That's not much considering the inches upon inches that fell in areas just to the south and east. I can already see these areas getting a foot of snow later in winter while I get my standard "inch or less".

Both streams didn't phase this cycle...just wait, once we get deeper into winter the Northern and Southern stream will phase...I can see this one being a Big Dog come DEC.

 

This 500mb vorticity animation shows the 2 energies just not phasing to become one big storm...I'm encouraged to see this pattern deliver more eventful outcomes in future cycles.

[Hawkeye]

I got 0.53" overnight.  That's not terrible, but the big blob of rain vanished and split around us.  Our rain came from two brief downpours at the beginning and end.  Hopefully, we can get another half inch this morning.