10/25 - 10/31 Hurricane Norma and a series of storms bring heavy rainfall and possible snow to the central US

[OttumwaSnomow]

14 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Ugh!!!  This week of widespread heavy rain is going down the toilet.  Round #1, today, missed north.  Round #2, the tropical remnants, will mostly miss south.  Round #3, the frontal flare-up, will miss well north.  Round #4, the main low, will likely drop the best rain nw.  Thank God Cedar Rapids got hit good by the last wet system, because this week is trending more like the rest of 2023.

I am absolutely  not surprised.  Takes some kind of a miracle  to get 1 inch event in the Ottumwa  area. We need a  stalled  front running  west to east about 20 miles into Missouri  and preferably  in the 4 to 8 am timeframe. Almost ANY OTHER STUPID SCENARIO AND IM FORTUNATE TO GET .50!!!!!  THIS PLACE IS INSANE. It  did this same thing in 2017 era I went  16 months with  1 event over 1 inch. Why!!!!!!!

[OKwx2k4]

19 hours ago, Tom said:

Mother Nature's blessings for the central CONUS...

That's an absolute blessing. Hoping Louisiana can get in on the moisture as we go forward as well. They're in significant drought. 

[Clinton]

Rain and thunderstorms from the remnants of Norma should move in early this afternoon and last into tomorrow morning.  I'm expecting between .5 to 1 inch from this.  The strong cold front and main upper low still look like a big hit for many.

[Clinton]

Nice steady rain falling ATM.  Some moderate to heavy bands look to be moving in soon.

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Nice steady rain falling ATM.  Some moderate to heavy bands look to be moving in soon.

Bet my last dollar that kc rain DOESNT MAKE IT TO OTTUMWA IOWA.   Maybe .10

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Nice steady rain falling ATM.  Some moderate to heavy bands look to be moving in soon.

The heavy band has just passed thru lawrence and we got about a quick .30 in that 30 minutes. 
 

looks like after this it might be it for the rest of the night 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

The heavy band has just passed thru lawrence and we got about a quick .30 in that 30 minutes. 
 

looks like after this it might be it for the rest of the night 

Looks like I may have another band or 2 move through before it tapers of.  Sitting at .35 atm.  Heaviest rain looks to be Thursday, I could sure use some heavy rain to generate some runoff.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Bet my last dollar that kc rain DOESNT MAKE IT TO OTTUMWA IOWA.   Maybe .10

Keeping my fingers crossed for ya!

[OttumwaSnomow]

I wish some folks would  stop leaning on models and use some common  sense. I know that microclimates  exist.  And so do things like "drought begets drought" that is particularly  true in the summer months.   But in my  17 years of living in this area its very mysterious  to me. How can model be so horribly  wrong for one particular area?  Most mets  could care less as to if these things exist or why.  Particularly  in these  humble mostly rural areas. If my town was a city   of 200k..  this would  be daily conversation!  Trust me theres something  odd about  SE iowa particularly  Ottumwa  Bloomfield, Centerville, Fairfield weatherwise 

[Clinton]

The wind is rocking right now, currently getting gust of 35 to 40mph.  There appears to be a narrow line of training storms developing along and east of I-35.  Looks like a narrow band of very heavy rainfall totals may set up right through KC.  Hi-Res models showing this pretty well.

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I wish some folks would  stop leaning on models and use some common  sense. I know that microclimates  exist.  And so do things like "drought begets drought" that is particularly  true in the summer months.   But in my  17 years of living in this area its very mysterious  to me. How can model be so horribly  wrong for one particular area?  Most mets  could care less as to if these things exist or why.  Particularly  in these  humble mostly rural areas. If my town was a city   of 200k..  this would  be daily conversation!  Trust me theres something  odd about  SE iowa particularly  Ottumwa  Bloomfield, Centerville, Fairfield weatherwise 

Feeling your pain here as well OttumwaSnomow, as we both seem to be stuck in this neverending pattern of missing out on moisture from these powerhouse storm systems. Over the weekend, the models were showing a long duration rain event that should have started earlier today and was supposed to last through Thursday night. Here in Omaha we didn't even get a sprinkle today, and now things seem to be drying up for tomorrow as the precipitation splits north and south around here as usual. What was looking like a solid 2-3" rainfall across Eastern Nebraska might end up being an inch or less... again!

As much as things change with the weather... it sure seems to stay the same here. Hopefully I am wrong and the cold front delivers the goods later tomorrow night and on Thursday - I am not optimistic though. 

[james1976]

.62" up here today. Local mets earlier had most of it south but its been a rainy evening here and even some thunder.

[Andie]

We’re sitting at 72*. Intermittent rain.  
More tomorrow.  
Thus is what we needed. It’s all slowly soaking into very thirsty ground.   Another day tomorrow starting in the afternoon most likely.  
Looking forward to the total on this event.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

26 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Feeling your pain here as well OttumwaSnomow, as we both seem to be stuck in this neverending pattern of missing out on moisture from these powerhouse storm systems. Over the weekend, the models were showing a long duration rain event that should have started earlier today and was supposed to last through Thursday night. Here in Omaha we didn't even get a sprinkle today, and now things seem to be drying up for tomorrow as the precipitation splits north and south around here as usual. What was looking like a solid 2-3" rainfall across Eastern Nebraska might end up being an inch or less... again!

As much as things change with the weather... it sure seems to stay the same here. Hopefully I am wrong and the cold front delivers the goods later tomorrow night and on Thursday - I am not optimistic though. 

Whats your precip deficit  for 2023?  We are near 17 inches! And I remember  in August  2022 we had a 15 inch deficit!  The deficits in moisture  going back to 2012 would blow the mind here.

[Bryan1117]

16 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Whats your precip deficit  for 2023?  We are near 17 inches! And I remember  in August  2022 we had a 15 inch deficit!  The deficits in moisture  going back to 2012 would blow the mind here.

Wow, that's a ridiculous deficit and it puts things in perspective... here in the Omaha metro our deficit is anywhere from 6 to 8 inches for 2023 so far (on top of the 10+ inch deficit from 2022). 

It would be nice to get a nice west to east bowling ball type system to dump on Eastern Nebraska and all of Iowa, however that doesn't seem to be in the cards for us at this point. 

[hawkstwelve]

GFS trending further south with the Saturday system. At this rate it might end up near @CentralNebWeather

[hawkstwelve]

CMC also trending further south with that Saturday snow. 

[Black Hole]

Next round of showers and maybe a thunderstorm moving in tomorrow, with the peak being the afternoon hours through Thursday morning. 

Looks like a break and then more action Saturday-Sunday. Pretty hefty storm totals on top of the 2/3 of an inch I got today.

[Black Hole]

What's interesting is that we are suddenly looking marginal for mixed precip Sunday. I mean I would definitely still say its unlikely, maybe a 5% chance or something, but its not 0. GFS has 925 mb temps of -1C for much of the day Sunday with moderate rain and a gusty north wind. It drops temps to 35F or so. The CMC is similar. 

Several GEFS ensemble members showing mixed precip of sleet or ZR. 

 

So in the end, yeah, probably nothing...but its going to be mighty raw. But I could easily see some mixed precip making it down into Kansas or western OK. 

 

[Black Hole]

Comparing the 00z GEFS to earlier guidance we can see the move towards a more consolidated trough which is likely why we've also seen a shift south in the cold and better dynamics over the cold air.

[Clinton]

Off and on rain overnight has brought my rainfall total up to .75 inches.  The rain has been on all night along I-35 from Wichita to KC where several flood warning are in effect.  Curious to hear what the totals are for the KC guys.  More heavy rain in the area today and tonight, it is more than welcome to target mby. 

[Clinton]

Hi-Res models have been doing a good job with identifying where the heavy bands will set up.  So here is what the have for today and tomorrow as round 2 pulls out of the SW.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS trending further south with the Saturday system. At this rate it might end up near @CentralNebWeather

NWS Hastings morning disco just mentioned that snow forecasts are trending south. Even mention potential for 1-3 to 2-4” of snow Saturday. They said temp forecast continues to also be lowered. Stay tuned. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just had a quick moving thunderstorm come through that dropped a surprising 0.15”, most forecasts had kept rainfall south and east of me. 
 

Update, got 0.31” as I just checked my app. Very foggy and misty right now with a temp of 47 degrees. 

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings morning disco just mentioned that snow forecasts are trending south. Even mention potential for 1-3 to 2-4” of snow Saturday. They said temp forecast continues to also be lowered. Stay tuned. 

6z GFS has this for ya.

0z Euro

[Andie]

71-82 today.  
Rain out west on the way. Then partly cloudy.   It’s been really nice getting all this slow soaking rain.  

[MIKEKC]

 KC is winning! Beautiful rains from this storm and it appears we are in for more. I'm at 1.89 inches near the NE side of KC, but there are totals ranging from 1-4 inches across the city with the heaviest on the south side of KC. We sure needed this.

Now, could we see the back edge produce some sleet/snow by Sunday morning. No freeze in KC yet, flowers are still in full bloom. That may change by Monday/Tuesday morning. We'll see if some of the forecast lows of 25 verify. 

[mlgamer]

I have received only 0.37" so far while areas less than 60 miles from me have flash flooding.  Whatever long term weather pattern that causes me always to be on the short end is still in place.

@OttumwaSnomow and @Bryan1117 I hear you guys. I too believe that micro climates exist. An area roughly in a five mile radius around me has missed the beneficial rains pretty much every time this year. This goes on and on. It's hard to explain this to people because it seems so ridiculous.

It's especially noticeable in winter. It'll be 10 years in February that I have had a snowfall above 6" while areas near me have done much better. It's all very strange. 

[Tom]

Hey guys, I also missed out on some showers/storms that formed over E AZ and the White Mountains.  I loved looking at the cloud formations to my east but all I got was a nice easterly outflow in the evening while I was grilling some salmon and having some dessert on the patio deck.  Anyway, I'm rooting for you that have missed out on the rainfall... @OttumwaSnomow, tonight/tomorrow is your day...

[Clinton]

45 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I have received only 0.37" so far while areas less than 60 miles from me have flash flooding.  Whatever long term weather pattern that causes me always to be on the short end is still in place.

@OttumwaSnomow and @Bryan1117 I hear you guys. I too believe that micro climates exist. An area roughly in a five mile radius around me has missed the beneficial rains pretty much every time this year. This goes on and on. It's hard to explain this to people because it seems so ridiculous.

It's especially noticeable in winter. It'll be 10 years in February that I have had a snowfall above 6" while areas near me have done much better. It's all very strange. 

That area to your south seems to always get hit, same as se Jackson County who got several inches this morning. Hope ya have better luck tonight and through the weekend. 

[MIKEKC]

@mlgamer...look at radar, a huge area of rain just to your SW...I think you are about to go up in the rain totals...very slow moving.

 

Some reports of 4.5 inches of rain on the SW side of KC. 

[Hawkeye]

Models now show the final weekend system will almost totally miss Iowa to the south.  Ugh.  For a week models showed several waves of rain across Iowa, producing widespread 2-3".  Instead, the Thursday wave will be the only rain we get over the entire week.

[mlgamer]

39 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

@mlgamer...look at radar, a huge area of rain just to your SW...I think you are about to go up in the rain totals...very slow moving.

 

Some reports of 4.5 inches of rain on the SW side of KC. 

Maybe by calling out Mother Nature, I shamed her into making it rain here...lol. Then again, it appears the bulk of this heavy rain could miss me to the NW. Gets pretty comical...

Check out this graphic from NWS Topeka. I'm in the purple area (.25 - .50) just SW of Topeka. Pretty crazy totals in places.

[bud2380]

Close up of Nebraska for this weekend on the 12z GFS.  

 

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Close up of Nebraska for this weekend on the 12z GFS.  

 

Pretty close to my doorstep west of Kearney. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS and GEFS stopped the southward slide of the snow totals on Saturday, both correcting slightly to the north versus the previous two runs. Sioux City might end up the in-between sweet spot.

[OttumwaSnomow]

So far here .10 after 72 hours of forecasted rain.   Time will tell what next 4 days bring.

So I researched  some other locations  around the area.

Many in Iowa have 2023 deficits of  10 to 13 inches.  Places like dsm, Marshalltown, waterloo.  Some much smaller deficits  like Ames 4 inches or Lamoni. Kirksville  mo about a 6 inch deficit.   Kc  i think 4 or 5 inch deficit. I couldn't  find Omaha?  And if any deficits east of Mississippi  river theyre  not significant (by my standards).

I saw dallas tex has around 16 inch deficit.

Otm? Ottumwa  airport?

Almost 17 inch deficit!!!  Nearly 30 inch deficit  since jan 2022.

This pic is my pond. Its almost dry. The green basket  was on bottom  and its the location a aerator. I had it dredged in 2021. I was 70% full and i had clean  clear water and nice fish. Its so low I just gave up and its now a algea mess.

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro stayed steady with the axis of snowfall on Saturday and also brought back some light Halloween snow for parts of the Midwest. 

[Clinton]

Nice rain today added another inch bringing my storm total to 1.7 inches. Hopefully I can add to this the next few days.

[Clinton]

KC continues to rack up the rainfall.  I just saw a report on TV of 9.9 inches southwest of the city.  Just crazy when I'm 17 inches down for the year and thrilled with the 1.7 I've gotten so far lol. 

WS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

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As of 4:48 pm the Kansas City Airport has broken its daily rainfall record for October 25th with 1.13" so far today. The old record was 1.12" from 1898.

 

 

4:51 PM · Oct 25, 2023

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