November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The analogs keep saying we are in a better place than we could be given the Nino.  Still a lot of good year sin the mix, including good Nino winters.

Not a single bad one in the 6-10 day list

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z RGEM/RDPS is not backing down with showing ice and snow tomorrow for some locations west of the Cascades. It looks like the layer of cold air will be deeper around PDX Metro to support snow down to the Valley floor.

 

[Blizzard777]

38/29* and currently 35* 

Just a bit chilly 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry I'm late. I just got back from Wallymart, after going to Bi Mart, then back to Bi Mart, and yeah. Fun stuff. Let's see how wet the next 5 to 7 days are. Do we get nailed by one AR(atmospheric river)? or two? Might we see a deep low spin up somewhat close to us for Sunday? No idea.

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

5 Day Rainfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

7 Day Rainfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

Guys…I think it’s gonna rain

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Poulsbo Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

I think I like the look of that ridge if the Kona low doesn't muck it up.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Cold Snap]

Snoqualmie river already projected to get to moderate flood stage next week.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I think I like the look of that ridge if the Kona low doesn't muck it up.

I think that’s too far west. -WPO and IPWP MJO in a strong niño typically doesn’t work because tropical forcing has usually propagated into the Pacific by the time the pieces come together over the NPAC. End result is usually a major +EPO followed by +PNA a few weeks later.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Phil]

Also if Scandinavia ridge develops in a couple weeks as suggested by guidance, we don’t want the -WPO/AR present because it neuters WAFz thru NPAC, reducing the effectiveness of the Scandinavia ridge in dropping the NAM.

-WPO is a very promising sign for PNW/W-Canada in Niña/+QBO years. But this year is Niño/-QBO, in which case +WPO/-EPO dipole is the most favorable loading pattern.

[Phil]

Waste of a scandi ridge on the 00z GFS. -WPO effectively torpedoes vertical wave activity fluxes from NW-Pacific. Zzzzzz.

00z Canadian is much more promising.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

There should be some kind of law that a restaurant closing has to be publicly reported 30 days in advance. Why am I hearing about the old Triple XXX Root Beer Drive-In in Issaquah closing tonight because they sold the property 30 minutes after they closed? Would have liked to have gotten one more frosty root beer even if it is frosty outside. My kids are very sad. Used to go there to celebrate the last day of school. 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Lightly snowing! 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Lightly snowing! 

My weather app claims it’s light snow. I don’t see anything

[Cold Snap]

7 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Lightly snowing! 

There’s some echoes returning on radar. I wonder if other places are getting snow. Not snowing here.

[Blizzard777]

 

Reports coming in around Federal Way….!!! Lol, I will check the reliable street lamp

Denied…nothing falling from the sky 

35*

[Poulsbo Snowman]

That looks like a weak CZ.  Don't recall that being modeled.

[Jbolin]

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Radar shows light snow, mix, or plain rain all over the place but I can't tell from any traffic cams if anything is reaching the ground. 

 

Still, first visit to traffic cam snow watch of the season! And unexpected too!!

[Gradient Keeper]

[SouthHillFrosty]

EVERYONE, RUN OUTSIDE AND LOOK AT YOUR STREET LAMPS!!

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

That looks like a weak CZ.  Don't recall that being modeled.

Yeah I think I saw something about a convergence zone near Everett but thought it was for late Thurs/early Friday rather than tonight. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

17 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Lightly snowing! 

 

1 minute ago, Jbolin said:

Here we go! This bodes well for tomorrow! Models are too warm it seems, except for the RGEM.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

EVERYONE, RUN OUTSIDE AND LOOK AT YOUR STREET LAMPS!!

Nothing. I’m always getting skunked.

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Radar shows light snow, mix, or plain rain all over the place but I can't tell from any traffic cams if anything is reaching the ground. 

 

Still, first visit to traffic cam snow watch of the season! And unexpected too!!

Your right! Need to take this moment in as I did the first death stare into the Streetlamp!   

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

My weather app claims it’s light snow. I don’t see anything

It's very light but can confirm here.  Not readily apparent but when I looked really closely I did see a couple tiny flakes.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It's very light but can confirm here.  Not readily apparent but when I looked really closely I did see a couple tiny flakes.

Go build a Flurry Man, Tim!

00z ECMWF in 7 minutes

This run can't possibly be as crazy wet as the 12z deluge this morning, right? 8"+ of rain. No way. I mean maybe. Let's find out...

[Poulsbo Snowman]

We've had 35 degree rain all evening.  Guess it's better than 33 degree rain.