November 2023 Weather in the PNW

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00z ECMWF Day 1

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Day 2

[snow_wizard]

This month ended up pretty dry IMBY.  We only had 4.74" for the month before today.  Normally it's quite a bit wetter than SEA here.

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Day 3

[snow_wizard]

I'm really liking our chances for some kind of a cold snap as we get into week two based on current models and post firehouse climo.  Most models are at least hinting at it now.

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Day 4

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Day 5

[snow_wizard]

Multiple analogs from 1955 again on tonight's GFS run.  About the most antithetical winter you could have to an El Nino.  We should be prepared to be surprised.

[LowerGarfield]

Light snow falling, started just about 10pm. Not expecting much.

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Day 6

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Day 7

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Day 8

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Wow 32/26 by day 10.  Crazy!

Partial day, so not really.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Cold rain and 36.3˚F here. Atop Burnaby Mountain wet snow is falling tonight:

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00z ECMWF 7 Day Rainfall totals (ending 4 PM Thursday)

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Day 9'er

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Day 8 850s. Chilly N-NE flow. Nice!

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Looks like a possible significant cold pool setting up Day 8+ on Euro. Chilly N-NE flow and strong high pressure over eastern Washington.

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Day 10

[Black Hole]

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

100% it was a total nightmare. In the Salem area we went from January 1996 to late December 2003 without a widespread snow event over 2". There was a decent 2-5" snow event in December 2000 which was strictly for folks west of I-5, and then most areas got 1-3" in January 2002, but it was very elevation dependent with the higher end of that up towards 500'. 

My timing of living in Portland was really so bad in the grand scheme of things. We did have a good event in January of 1998, but that was the last big snow I saw there outside of the winter of 2003/2004. I moved out in fall 2007. Looking at the data for the airport, not counting 03/04, there was...total...7.9" of snow from Feb of 1998 to August of 2007. Obviously 03/04 was better with 12.3" on its own. Things have sure turned around since then. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 8-16. Nice signal for a strong block over the Aleutians/Bering Sea edging towards Alaska. Fairly close to something good. If future runs shift this to the east things could become very interesting! Patience required....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

My timing of living in Portland was really so bad in the grand scheme of things. We did have a good event in January of 1998, but that was the last big snow I saw there outside of the winter of 2003/2004. I moved out in fall 2007. Looking at the data for the airport, not counting 03/04, there was...total...7.9" of snow from Feb of 1998 to August of 2007. Obviously 03/04 was better with 12.3" on its own. Things have sure turned around since then. 

At least you got your fill of snow at college! Hopefully the Tulsa area gets a few nice events this winter. You had quite the straight line wind event over the summer. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

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00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

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00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Multiple analogs from 1955 again on tonight's GFS run.  About the most antithetical winter you could have to an El Nino.  We should be prepared to be surprised.

Be careful not to over-interpret transient subseasonal overlap. This winter will not resemble 1955/56.

[Black Hole]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At least you got your fill of snow at college! Hopefully the Tulsa area gets a few nice events this winter. You had quite the straight line wind event over the summer. 

Yeah that's true! Plenty of snow in Utah to keep me satisfied. Last winter sucked for snow, and before that I was in Phoenix. So it's been 3.5 years since I've seen a decent snow. So yes, I sure hope this year delivers. That wind event was a bit much, hopefully we don't do that again for a while ha

[Deweydog]

Any final words, fall?

[SnowySeeker]

Currently 39f after a high of 43. 5.88" for the month.

[The Blob]

Beat all of you to it.

 

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I know it's a new month but it's really early in the morning and I don't see the new thread. 

I just looked at the NWS forecast and i'm wondering why there isn't a Wind Advisory or a High Wind Warning if we could be seeing wind gusts to 50 mph  

[westcoastexpat]

12 hours ago, Phil said:

Interesting. Climatological peak of winter in the West is 3-4 weeks away. Basically follows insolation?

Fascinating. Not surprised that December is our coldest month of the year, climatologically speaking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-1.0 departure at SLE in November.

[Phishy Wx]

maybe an inch so far, next wave arrives in a couple of hours, supposed to be heavier

[Christensen87]

Heading to Leavenworth/Wenatchee for the weekend in the Jeep. Going to try Stevens, should be a fun drive!  

[Phishy Wx]

Moderate Snow, 28

[Christensen87]

Just passed Gold Bar. The transition from rain to snow happened in a second. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended November with two consecutive highs in the 30s here. 38/24 on the 29th, and 38/34 on the 30th. Yesterday was a cold and raw end to fall with a slushy rain snow mix at points in the afternoon. Temps peaked around noon and were back down in the mid-30s by afternoon and evening as the precip coverage increased. Lots of very wet snow mixed in at points.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended November with two consecutive highs in the 30s here. 38/24 on the 29th, and 38/34 on the 30th. Yesterday was a cold and raw end to fall with a slushy rain snow mix at points in the afternoon. Temps peaked around noon and were back down in the mid-30s by afternoon and evening as the precip coverage increased. Lots of very wet snow mixed in at points.

Not a bad November.

[Cascadia_Wx]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a bad November.

Yeah it turned out alright in the end. Lots of variety and not bone dry or a total end to end torch, which earns high it marks these days.

[snow_wizard]

Not too shabby!