November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Tyler Mode]

Here we go!  One of our wettest months of the year...and it looks to start out that way!

[antipex]

3 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

Here we go!  One of our wettest months of the year...and it looks to start out that way!

Here as well, which is good because we only had 0.63” in October. Average temp 44.6, high 74.1, low 17.1. Picked up a dusting of snow last week.

[LowerGarfield]

It is just after sunrise here and it's just under 29F. This will probably be the last freeze in a row since 10/27/23 (night). Going into the wet pattern now.

[MossMan]

Holy smokes it’s November and I will be putting up Christmas lights in a few weeks!! This year has screamed by! 
Had a low of 39. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by MossMan

[iFred]

Bottomed out at 32º and then it got a bit moist.

[the_convergence_zone]

Feels great to have our moist air back and be rid of that nasty inversion. 

[Deweydog]

Let’s go!!!

[RentonHill]

I always like reading the Spokane AFD. They really walk you through how they come up with their forecasts. 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
455 AM PDT Wed Nov 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of dry conditions before a Pacific storm system arrives tonight. Increased cloud cover with cold conditions and weak winds will also keep the atmosphere stagnant into this evening. Then the weather turns wet overnight tonight into Thursday. There will be a brief break between storm systems on Friday before more wet weather returns Friday night into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: A wet and mild storm system will move in across the Inland Northwest tonight continuing through Thursday night. The moisture plume associated with this incoming system is noteworthy with an inch plus P-wat plume extending across the Pacific Ocean to the Mariana Islands (or Guam) in the western Pacific. This rich moisture source will supply a moderately strong Atmospheric River, or AR2 on a scale of 1 to 5. The duration of the AR event over the Inland Northwest will be relatively short on the scale of 24 to 36 hours. There will be strong southwesterly flow in the warm sector Wednesday night into Thursday morning before turning more westerly in the 850-700 mb layer Thursday afternoon. A southerly component with strong isentropic ascent associated with the warm front and ample precipitable water will mean that all areas across the region will see a 90%+ probability of receiving wetting rains (at least a tenth of an inch). Strong warm air advection will also drive snow levels up; however, the timing of the precipitation overnight on Tuesday into Wednesday morning does present a challenge to the precipitation type, primarily across the northern mountain zones. The atmosphere is quite dry at the moment and dew point temperatures a generally sitting in the teens to low 20s across these northern mountain zones. Even though warm air advection will want to drive temperatures up, evaporative cooling will want to counteract this warming. Precipitation type becomes much less of a challenge across the southern half of the forecast area where snow levels will be high enough for rain, except for possibly a little bit of snow mixing in at Lookout Pass initially this evening.

*Precipitation Type: The valleys should see mostly rain. It's possible that evening the northern mountain valleys will see a little bit of snow mixed in before changing over to rain overnight. What is much more curious and a challenge is the precipitation type in the mountains, and specifically over the mountain passes. Model guidance is in good agreement for temperatures to warm up above freezing at mountain pass level this afternoon. Then models generally want to cool surface temperatures down to freezing due to wet bulb cooling effects. The 00Z deterministic GFS model is colder than its NAM and ECMWF counterpart. The 00Z deterministic Canadian solution is more supportive of cooler temperatures in the east slopes of the northern Cascades. The colder model guidance would suggest the possibility of very wet snow above 3,000 to 3,500 feet in elevation.

 Then there are thermal profiles like the NAM that are warmer aloft and would suggest snow levels above 7,000 feet in elevation, but has surface temperatures at mountain pass level below freezing (freezing rain scenario). I have a hard time buying off that temperatures would only cool down to freezing at the surface while remain warm (above freezing) in a strong southerly flow regime. I see one of two scenarios playing out for the mountain passes along Highway 20 (Washington Pass, Loup Loup Pass, and Sherman Pass): (1) thermal profiles cool down enough for wet snow, possibly switching over to freezing rain overnight, and then temperatures moderating above freezing Thursday morning, or (2) there is enough warm air advection aloft that temperatures at the surface remain above freezing are possible cool down to right near freezing with precipitation type remaining as all rain. I lean toward scenario 2 where precipitation type will be mostly rain. I don't see any freezing rain that occurs as being particularly impactful as road temperatures should have a harder time cooling significantly with cloud cover moving in through the evening preventing a strong radiational cooling situation.

*Rainfall: The primary concern for significant rainfall will be over the Central Panhandle extending into the Idaho Palouse. This is where forcing will be strongest with the combination of moist isentropic ascent and orographics. Creeks in the area are expected to see sharp rises with Paradise Creek one of those that come to mind. Total rainfall from tonight through Thursday night looks to be in the 1-1.5 inches range from Pullman/Moscow to St. Maries and the Silver Valley. The vast majority of the model guidance (90%+) has less than 1.5 inches of rainfall for these areas. The NAM continues to be an outlier showing potential for close to 1.75 inches from Pullman to Clarkia/Deary in Idaho. If this model verifies, then our forecast will be deficient in rainfall accumulation of around a half of an inch, and rises on Paradise Creek are more likely to flirt with Action Stage of 8 feet. This is an unlikely scenario however and typically this creek only floods in the early spring when snow melt is a contributing factor. Rainfall will also be heavy at the Cascade crest where 2-3 inches is expected. This will result in rises on the Stehekin River, but this river is unlikely flood either without a sufficient ripened snowpack or multiple strong AR events. Overall, rainfall with this incoming system looks to be beneficial and will help to clean the air.

Temperatures will be near average for the start of November, and will feel more mild overnight with the increased cloud cover. /SVH

Friday night through Tuesday: While Friday night will be mostly dry with just slight chances for precipitation, the period as a whole will see a moist pattern set up across the Inland Northwest. Disturbances pushing through the general westerly flow will lead to rain and high mountain snow for the weekend into early next week. Daytime temps will run near to slightly above normal, so snow will typically be confined to the higher mountains and passes. Precipitation amounts in the mountains may approach 1 to 2+ inches of liquid, though valley locations will likely range down to as low as 0.25". Still, rainfall rates are not expected to be excessive enough to lead to significant flooding - just a needed and beneficial period of rain for much of the region. /KD

[Phil]

Found out I herniated the L4/L5 disc in my back. I’m feeling old for the first time in my life.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 44F last night. Going through a really tough time right now and could use a ton of emotional support. It's a long story but I would love for people to reach out and help me as it's been a really difficult time for my family and people bullying us, with us just trying to stay stoic but they still make us cry and feel bad about the person I am and the family I live with. I'm already a very sad person so this has just made things so much worse. Thank y'all for being here and a beacon of positivity in a very difficult situation. Epilepsy sucks and so many people, including my old family don't understand at all and just resort to bullying me and my current family, which just stresses me and causes my seizures to get worse and worse.

Please PM me and reach out if possible. I really need to talk to people about this because it will help me stay in a good mindset rather than just breaking down and letting the sadness consume me. I truly hope y'all get a huge amount of snow for what wonderful people you are. You deserve happiness.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE ended October with a modest +1.1F temp departure, slightly below normal rainfall. 

I'm thinking a warmer than normal November with near average precip. Wouldn't be surprised to see a cool snap towards the latter 10 days of the month. 

[Cold Snap]

12z Euro was slightly wetter than 00z.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Here's the full PNW precip map on the EC, including Roseburg and Medford also. Some much-needed rainfall for these areas. Hopefully we can get the water year going strong.

[MossMan]

Such a nice day before the flood gates open…Think I might head home early and mow again! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Feels great to have our moist air back and be rid of that nasty inversion. 

It was a pretty good inversion in my book. Not one of those duds where the temperature fails to reach freezing overnight even in December and January.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Here's the full PNW precip map on the EC, including Roseburg and Medford also. Some much-needed rainfall for these areas. Hopefully we can get the water year going strong.

The northern Olympic Peninsula is not in an absolute donut hole, therefore this map is highly unrealistic and will never verify.

This has been a paid message funded by @Port Angeles Foothiller.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It was a pretty good inversion in my book. Not one of those duds where the temperature fails to reach freezing overnight even in December and January.

We were very fortunate here. 5 straight freezes in Springfield and 4 straight at EUG to close out Oct. Being in a wind-sheltered area helps us cool down bigtime in those types of airmasses.

[Winterdog]

Missed my 7th freeze by 3 tenths of a degree this morning.  Up to 55 and still going up.  I've got way too much crap to do outside before it rains. 

[the_convergence_zone]

21 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It was a pretty good inversion in my book. Not one of those duds where the temperature fails to reach freezing overnight even in December and January.

It was good for a while...yesterday not so much when my PurpleAir sensor had an AQI up to 150. Can't have them sticking around too long or we end up with dirty air. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The northern Olympic Peninsula is not in an absolute donut hole, therefore this map is highly unrealistic and will never verify.

This has been a paid message funded by @Port Angeles Foothiller.

Look at the nam and GEM

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

SCORE!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

36 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The northern Olympic Peninsula is not in an absolute donut hole, therefore this map is highly unrealistic and will never verify.

This has been a paid message funded by @Port Angeles Foothiller.

More.. The GFS and Euro are incapable of modeling the shadow effect of hurricane ridge. Their numbers are absolutely meaningless for my area. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Found out I herniated the L4/L5 disc in my back. I’m feeling old for the first time in my life.  

Years and years of cutting wood at stampede pass is catching up!

[RentonHill]

18z is a soaker folks

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

18z is a soaker folks

 

except for @Port Angeles Foothiller' s location

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

except for @Port Angeles Foothiller' s location

well ya thats a given only worth mentioning if its not tbh

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Found out I herniated the L4/L5 disc in my back. I’m feeling old for the first time in my life.  

Haven't posted for awhile (sometimes some of the posts on here bring out my worst and I sort of banned myself), but I want to respond to Phil. 

I had severe stenosis in L4-L5, with extreme sciatica and drop foot.  I had a fusion surgery in late March.  Hopefully you won't need surgery, but my surgery worked well for me.  No more sciatica, my drop foot improved a lot but I'm still not at 100% strength in my foot.  Went from a 2/5 to a 4/5 with more improvement possible.  Still, life is pretty normal and the weaker foot isn't a huge deal.  My PT said I could ski, no problem.

Obviously your doctor and other medical professionals will give better advice, but if you ever develop drop foot or numbness, you need to act fast as it doesn't take a real long time for it to become permenant.  Nerve impingement is pretty serious.  I hope you have a full recovery by whatever they prescribe for you 

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

23 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

except for @Port Angeles Foothiller' s location

Port Angeles is the new Eugene.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Port Angeles is the new Eugene.

Except for the times they get the odd 20" snowstorm in 1 day. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

21 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Haven't posted for awhile (sometimes some of the posts on here bring out my worst and I sort of banned myself), but I want to respond to Phil. 

I had severe stenosis in L4-L5, with extreme sciatica and drop foot.  I had a fusion surgery in late March.  Hopefully you won't need surgery, but my surgery worked well for me.  No more sciatica, my drop foot improved a lot but I'm still not at 100% strength in my foot.  Went from a 2/5 to a 4/5 with more improvement possible.  Still, life is pretty normal and the weaker foot isn't a huge deal.  My PT said I could ski, no problem.

Obviously your doctor and other medical professionals will give better advice, but if you ever develop drop foot or numbness, you need to act fast as it doesn't take a real long time for it to become permenant.  Nerve impingement is pretty serious.  I hope you have a full recovery by whatever they prescribe for you 

 

 

Great to see y'all still here. Been worried about you.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Except for the times they get the odd 20" snowstorm in 1 day. 

2-25-19

[RentonHill]

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

2-25-19

I miss Pelican Brewing, one of my go-to drinks when I was in K-Falls.

[HuskyMaestro]

54F. Gray dreary skies, November really is here with the fire hose coming tonight!  

[the_convergence_zone]

Seems to be a lock for back-to-back one inchers at KSEA and possibly a three-peat on Monday with the Euro ensemble mean sitting around 0.8 and plenty of members over 1.0 for that one as well. Then a brief dry period. 

Speaking of three-peats, it could also be three 60+ degree days in a row at KSEA Thurs-Sat. 

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Such a nice day before the flood gates open…Think I might head home early and mow again! 

Well glad I did! Timed it perfectly, got 2.5hrs of work done and just parked the equipment inside when the first drops started to fall!
 

One last Weedeat and mow, also took care of the items around the garden including the hanging baskets that called it good during the frosty mornings. Got my drainage ditches all cleared as well. Have more to do but it’s a good start. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Afternoon GFS is very rainy.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Great to see y'all still here. Been worried about you.

Thanks, I appreciate that!  I do check the forums from time to time.  And probably more now that we are in November 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Except for the times they get the odd 20" snowstorm in 1 day. 

I’ll be sure to let everyone know when that happens