November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS wants to start split flow hell early. I'd rather have a PHAT rEX block sitting over us than warm drizzle and systems sliding south. 

The worst weather pattern in the world and the one I dread the most… SFH

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, MossMan said:

The worst weather pattern in the world and the one I dread the most… SFH

Let's rip the band-aid off and get it over with early this time instead of mid Dec-most of Jan.

[Cold Snap]

Got 1.05” out of this event. Been a bit breezy all morning.

[Omegaraptor]

PDX going for a 70-burger today?

[Winterdog]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It's kind of sad when all it takes is 40-50 mph gusts to cause havoc. That's like a normal Monday afternoon in Wyoming. When you start getting closer to hurricane force then I get more interested. 

Around here any storm with consistent 50 mph gusts will cause a power outage and leave branches and debris everywhere.  I'm nearly 80 yrs old and I don't like having to move the generator out and set it up, plus our phones don't work during outages, then there is cleaning up all the tree debris afterword.  I marvel at windstorms but I would much rather have a snowstorm or even heavy fog. 58 degrees and not raining.

[crf450ish]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

And yeah a few weeks ago I posted about all the unhealthy tall/skinny trees in my family’s Everett neighborhood. They were developing a large, low-frequency sway with just a 10mph breeze.

I guarantee the next big-league windstorm will topple an insane number of trees there. Those things will drop like toothpicks.

It would be a good idea for them to double check their insurance policy. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SnowHawks said:

I was reading KOMO news brief description for our upcoming EL NINO winter and looked back to see if there were any significant snows during an EL NINO in the PNW. 1968-69 stands out as one and I was wondering other than the EL NINO state at that time, what would have been the other factors that would have enabled such a rare occurrence?

There was just a ton of high latitude blocking that winter. -NAO/-EPO/-PNA dominated for long periods.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 hours ago, crf450ish said:

2008-2009 winter will forever live in my mind as one of the most epic winters in western Washington history (for me). My 88 year old grandfather still talks about winters back in the 50s, 60s, 70s & 80s being "real" winters around here. He used to drive his truck out onto Ohop Lake in Eatonville and drill into the ice and measure....he forgot the exact year but he said it was nearly 6" thick. My dad has pictures of his childhood house front yard downtown Puyallup...snow knee deep in January in the 70s. Similar stories from all of my Gen X family. 

Knee deep in the swamp? Hell must have frozen over for that happen. Also impressive that he use to drive his truck onto Ohop lake. What a time. 

[crf450ish]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Knee deep in the swamp? Hell must have frozen over for that happen. Also impressive that he use to drive his truck onto Ohop lake. What a time. 

I've been told similar stories from many elderly people who seen and did amazing things during winter in the 60s thru the mid 80s. One of our neighbors said her & her parents used to ice skate on greenlake around duck island when she was a kid. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

including todays one. backed off on it a bit but some extreme members

I actually like to see the PV ramp up in November (esp in -QBO) because that opens it up to earlier wave attacks, paralleling -QBO tendency to produce earlier stratwarms w/rt the seasonal radiative cycle.

In tandem, this increases the probability of the PV being in a disturbed/baroclinic state around the radiative minimum (winter solstice), which is when ozone destruction/rapid PV strengthening is most likely to occur. So avoiding that can dramatically increase the odds of high latitude blocking during the coldest part of winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I do feel for Jesse as the model trends today have been devastating to say the least. 

Also keeping @TT-SEA in my thoughts. Given some of his past comments recently, I would assume he is going through some family stuff right now. We don't need to know details to lift up a fellow weather weenie in our thoughts. 

Edited November 2 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SouthHillFrosty]

16 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

I've been told similar stories from many elderly people who seen and did amazing things during winter in the 60s thru the mid 80s. One of our neighbors said her & her parents used to ice skate on greenlake around duck island when she was a kid. 

Oh wow that is wild. I wonder if Alder Lake ever froze over. I use to love going out there and cliff jumping with ppl back in the day.

[RentonHill]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

I actually like to see the PV ramp up in November (esp in -QBO) because that opens it up to earlier wave attacks, paralleling -QBO tendency to produce earlier stratwarms w/rt the seasonal radiative cycle.

In tandem, this increases the probability of the PV being in a disturbed/baroclinic state around the radiative minimum (winter solstice), which is when ozone destruction/rapid PV strengthening is most likely to occur. So avoiding that can dramatically increase the odds of high latitude blocking during the coldest part of winter.

Good post 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

2.20" of rain with this system and Mt. Si is happy

[Randyc321]

22 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The donut of hell begins..

Dude, this is what that area is known for.  Sequim boasts of their 300 days of sunshine a year.  You know this.

[Christensen87]

Next weekend is looking to be pretty nice according to Mr. GFS. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, crf450ish said:

I've been told similar stories from many elderly people who seen and did amazing things during winter in the 60s thru the mid 80s. One of our neighbors said her & her parents used to ice skate on greenlake around duck island when she was a kid. 

This was looking out from our family lake house on Lake Goodwin sometime in the 70’s I believe but no date stamp. Last time I remember the lake freezing solidly enough to be on it like this was 1989 I think. Since then it has froze but I wouldn’t trust walking past the docks. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not as rainy as I thought so far but we have still picked up 0.15" so far in the occasional shower. Not constant firehose type stuff like I was expecting but still getting the rain we need.

[Front Ranger]

29 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not as rainy as I thought so far but we have still picked up 0.15" so far in the occasional shower. Not constant firehose type stuff like I was expecting but still getting the rain we need.

You should get more with next system.

[MossMan]

1.26” for the day, 1.57” on the month. 
Raining and 53 degrees. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rod Hill just came out with his winter outlook. He did pretty well last year, hitting 4/5 of his predictions.

This winter he thinks all of the months will be warmer than normal with December having the warmest anomalies. He has no confidence in rainfall so it could go either way or end up around normal. He doesn’t think we will have a big snowstorm down here in the city but freezing rain chances are elevated. So if you like ice storms, this might be your winter.  

https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/rod-hill-winter-outlook-portland-oregon-2023-2024/283-37726d62-879b-41ff-bc65-8bd913162515

[Gradient Keeper]

12 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I’m neither sick or injured at the moment.

But I did have cancer!

"I did have", are the key words. I hope you remain in remission and clear of it for a very, very, very long time!

00z GFS in 2 hours

[Gradient Keeper]

Record Event Report

11/2/23 6:37 PM

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
0421 PM PDT THU NOV 02 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PORTLAND OR...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 WAS SET AT PORTLAND OR TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 68 SET IN 1970.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE
624 PM PDT THU NOV 02 2023

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT BELLINGHAM WA AIRPORT...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.33 WAS SET AT BELLINGHAM WA AIRPORT TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.07 SET IN 1955.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Enjoy the reprieve from the system that just went through, the next system is hot on its tail. This one looks more juicier than the last system. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

68 at PDX = gross. 

[The Blob]

Had some sun on my way to work this evening.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Here we go!

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Here we go!

Beautiful and hopeful! Get rid of the El Nino split-flow in November, and then Winter arrives for December. I like it! Thanks!

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry for the delay. 00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 caught up with the run now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[ShawniganLake]

12 hours ago, Phil said:

That’s plantar fasciitis. Do you have flat feet?

That’s what I figured it was.  Yea I probably do. 

[Phil]

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1720135375727853748?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS 10 Day Rainfall totals. Quite a bit wetter.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS is cool light rain into an inversion. Not bad.

[Phil]

Ordinarily I’d be less than pleased with the advertised pattern, but blowtorch November + mod/strong niño has a 100% success rate at preceding snowier than avg winters here.

Literally the only time I’ll ever root for warmth.  

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ordinarily I’d be less than pleased with the advertised pattern, but blowtorch November + mod/strong niño has a 100% success rate at preceding snowier than avg winters here.

Literally the only time I’ll ever root for warmth.  

Coast to coast banger incoming. Bout to flip Niño climo on its head.

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1720135375727853748?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

 

So we good now??

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

So we good now??

There’ll be more than enough arctic air available. But obviously still TBD where it goes.

I suspect the first big outbreak is destined for Putin territory, though.

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ordinarily I’d be less than pleased with the advertised pattern, but blowtorch November + mod/strong niño has a 100% success rate at preceding snowier than avg winters here.

Literally the only time I’ll ever root for warmth.  

[LowerGarfield]

Had .45 inches of rain last night and didn't get anymore the rest of the day despite it threatening with overcast skies. It cleared up this evening.