November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

For the record I am the red headed step child of the west. Weather here is more PNW than California, plus who doesn't like snow pics!. 

Oh I agree! Wish you posted more. I’m just messing with Fred.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Rain is tapering off, up to 1.3" since midnight.  Got .21" last night up to midnight, so a not too shabby 1.51" out of this first wave.

[Winterdog]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Up to .77” now on the day and currently dumping buckets! 

My Davis weather station said I received 1.75" of rain in the past 24 hours and I found that hard to believe after seeing what others were saying they received so I checked my manual gauge and it showed 1.60".  Crazy amount of rain but that is what has fallen here.  

[Phil]

The insects have finally been silenced. First time since April I stepped outside and wasn’t immediately swarmed by skeeters.

Bye felicias. Rest in frozen pieces.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

You certainly did a lot of that 2016-18.  

Also Colorado, SoCal/Tahoe, and Wisconsin. And even Japan, as of last weekend. Don’t see that on many weather forums.

I pay the bills.

 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

My Davis weather station said I received 1.75" of rain in the past 24 hours and I found that hard to believe after seeing what others were saying they received so I checked my manual gauge and it showed 1.60".  Crazy amount of rain but that is what has fallen here.  

Nice! Looks like a stormy month coming up for the PNW and eventually NorCal as the Pacific jet consolidates.

Probably ends up warmer than average just about everywhere, but there’ll be no shortage of storm systems/rainfall.

And I think there’s a better than average shot at a windstorm/very strong jet 3rd week of the month. Though I’m not an expert in regional synoptics so don’t put too much stock in that prediction.

[Phil]

The UK just got blasted by a sun-950mb low. Gusts at least 120mph recorded, possibly stronger.

Preview of what’s to come in PNW/BC 2-3 weeks from now?? It’s definitely possible. Jet extension, +NPO/+EPO transition upcoming (then eventually more +WPO in December).

Again, idk how it’ll translate in terms of individual storms/tracks, but I’m interested.

[Winterdog]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

And I think there’s a better than average shot at a windstorm/very strong jet 3rd week of the month.

I hate windstorms.  I don't like having to deal with downed trees, no electricity and crushed cars.

[Kolk1604]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

The insects have finally been silenced. First time since April I stepped outside and wasn’t immediately swarmed by skeeters.

Bye felicias. Rest in frozen pieces.

What about fleas? It's still an issue for my cats and it's November

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS really sucked. I can hear Phil cackling from here. 

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I hate windstorms.  I don't like having to deal with downed trees, no electricity and crushed cars.

1 year ago this coming Saturday was epic!! I cut the smaller tree up to get traffic moving at least one way on our main road. No power for 4 days.my property had minimal damage luckily. 

[RentonHill]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS really sucked. I can hear Phil cackling from here. 

The atmosphere is fully coupled with LITTLE BOY and its only a matter of time before FAT MAN gets us

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

The UK just got blasted by a sun-950mb low. Gusts at least 120mph recorded, possibly stronger.

Preview of what’s to come in PNW/BC 2-3 weeks from now?? It’s definitely possible. Jet extension, +NPO/+EPO transition upcoming (then eventually more +WPO in December).

Again, idk how it’ll translate in terms of individual storms/tracks, but I’m interested.

And they issued a tornado warning, which apparently means something different than it does here: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/storm-ciaran-live-weather-radar-uk-met-office-b2440188.html

[Phil]

36 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I hate windstorms.  I don't like having to deal with downed trees, no electricity and crushed cars.

I have a love/hate relationship with them. If it’s a typical cold season windstorm (W/NW winds/mountain waves) the trees will do fine since they’re acclimated to that, even at 60+mph. So those events are easy to enjoy.

But convective/downburst winds from summer storms sometimes come in from the S/SW or due N, and those are often very destructive. The thunderstorm on 7/29 this year produced winds from the N/NE measured at 84mph, and the damage was extensive. The tree canopy is forever changed.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Winterdog said:

I hate windstorms.  I don't like having to deal with downed trees, no electricity and crushed cars.

It's kind of sad when all it takes is 40-50 mph gusts to cause havoc. That's like a normal Monday afternoon in Wyoming. When you start getting closer to hurricane force then I get more interested. 

[crf450ish]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Old folks were great luck for me! Worked at a senior community between 2006 and 2012…We had some epic winters during that stretch! Here is December 2008 at work! 

2008-2009 winter will forever live in my mind as one of the most epic winters in western Washington history (for me). My 88 year old grandfather still talks about winters back in the 50s, 60s, 70s & 80s being "real" winters around here. He used to drive his truck out onto Ohop Lake in Eatonville and drill into the ice and measure....he forgot the exact year but he said it was nearly 6" thick. My dad has pictures of his childhood house front yard downtown Puyallup...snow knee deep in January in the 70s. Similar stories from all of my Gen X family. 

[crf450ish]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It's kind of sad when all it takes is 40-50 mph gusts to cause havoc. That's like a normal Monday afternoon in Wyoming. When you start getting closer to hurricane force then I get more interested. 

Why do you think there's so few trees in Wyoming?  I've spent considerable time in Wheatland and Gillette, the wind never stops. 

[crf450ish]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

I have a love/hate relationship with them. If it’s a typical cold season windstorm (W/NW winds/mountain waves) the trees will do fine since they’re acclimated to that, even at 60+mph. So those events are easy to enjoy.

But convective/downburst winds from summer storms sometimes come in from the S/SW or due N, and those are often very destructive. The thunderstorm on 7/29 this year produced winds from the N/NE measured at 84mph, and the damage was extensive. The tree canopy is forever changed.

This looks like the aftermath of the Hanukkah eve windstorm of 2006 here in the PNW. It was devastating, to say the least. I believe we're overdue for a major windstorm here. I'm not looking forward to it, but I'm prepared. Chainsaw, plenty of bar oil, spare chains, fuel already mixed ready to go. Generator and power cords ready. Firewood ready. I had a tree service come this summer and perform what is known as "wind sailing" the trees in proximity to our house. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, crf450ish said:

Why do you think there's so few trees in Wyoming?  I've spent considerable time in Wheatland and Gillette, the wind never stops. 

Had dinner in Wheatland last week. It was breezy.

[RentonHill]

Euro/GEM wetter than SloBro

[Phil]

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1720086989465342046?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS really sucked. I can hear Phil cackling from here. 

Euro looks a bit more interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Euro looks a bit more interesting.

GFS wants to start split flow hell early. I'd rather have a PHAT rEX block sitting over us than warm drizzle and systems sliding south. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS really sucked. I can hear Phil cackling from here. 

I think you’re projecting, friend.  

I’m being honest when I say that, no matter how much you enjoy my suffering a warm/snowless winter, I always want you see you guys score. I’ll never root against someone hoping to enjoy one of their life’s passions.

Of course there’s an element of jealousy/misery-loves-company, but that is trumped by love of winter weather and the dynamic patterns associated with it. I’d much rather track an amplified pattern that torches my backyard but delivers awesomeness elsewhere than a flat/zonal pattern that roasts everyone.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

This looks like the aftermath of the Hanukkah eve windstorm of 2006 here in the PNW. It was devastating, to say the least. 

Yeah it’s depressing, right? I’m still getting used to the changed light patterns under the open parts of the tree canopy.

Thankfully none our trees were a total loss. Some lost big limbs and others looked to be warped/leaning, but it wasn’t from the roots, and they’ve re-straightened somewhat (though not entirely).

[SnowHawks]

I was reading KOMO news brief description for our upcoming EL NINO winter and looked back to see if there were any significant snows during an EL NINO in the PNW. 1968-69 stands out as one and I was wondering other than the EL NINO state at that time, what would have been the other factors that would have enabled such a rare occurrence?

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

This looks like the aftermath of the Hanukkah eve windstorm of 2006 here in the PNW. It was devastating, to say the least. I believe we're overdue for a major windstorm here. I'm not looking forward to it, but I'm prepared. Chainsaw, plenty of bar oil, spare chains, fuel already mixed ready to go. Generator and power cords ready. Firewood ready. I had a tree service come this summer and perform what is known as "wind sailing" the trees in proximity to our house. 

And yeah a few weeks ago I posted about all the unhealthy tall/skinny trees in my family’s Everett neighborhood. They were developing a large, low-frequency sway with just a 10mph breeze.

I guarantee the next big-league windstorm will topple an insane number of trees there. Those things will drop like toothpicks.

[RentonHill]

47 minutes ago, Phil said:

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1720086989465342046?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

last week of runs for this

 

[RentonHill]

including todays one. backed off on it a bit but some extreme members

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully we see that early SSW. Good things will be happening, I have a feeling.

[MossMan]

57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS wants to start split flow hell early. I'd rather have a PHAT rEX block sitting over us than warm drizzle and systems sliding south. 

The worst weather pattern in the world and the one I dread the most… SFH

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, MossMan said:

The worst weather pattern in the world and the one I dread the most… SFH

Let's rip the band-aid off and get it over with early this time instead of mid Dec-most of Jan.

[Cold Snap]

Got 1.05” out of this event. Been a bit breezy all morning.

[Omegaraptor]

PDX going for a 70-burger today?

[Winterdog]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It's kind of sad when all it takes is 40-50 mph gusts to cause havoc. That's like a normal Monday afternoon in Wyoming. When you start getting closer to hurricane force then I get more interested. 

Around here any storm with consistent 50 mph gusts will cause a power outage and leave branches and debris everywhere.  I'm nearly 80 yrs old and I don't like having to move the generator out and set it up, plus our phones don't work during outages, then there is cleaning up all the tree debris afterword.  I marvel at windstorms but I would much rather have a snowstorm or even heavy fog. 58 degrees and not raining.

[crf450ish]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

And yeah a few weeks ago I posted about all the unhealthy tall/skinny trees in my family’s Everett neighborhood. They were developing a large, low-frequency sway with just a 10mph breeze.

I guarantee the next big-league windstorm will topple an insane number of trees there. Those things will drop like toothpicks.

It would be a good idea for them to double check their insurance policy. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SnowHawks said:

I was reading KOMO news brief description for our upcoming EL NINO winter and looked back to see if there were any significant snows during an EL NINO in the PNW. 1968-69 stands out as one and I was wondering other than the EL NINO state at that time, what would have been the other factors that would have enabled such a rare occurrence?

There was just a ton of high latitude blocking that winter. -NAO/-EPO/-PNA dominated for long periods.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 hours ago, crf450ish said:

2008-2009 winter will forever live in my mind as one of the most epic winters in western Washington history (for me). My 88 year old grandfather still talks about winters back in the 50s, 60s, 70s & 80s being "real" winters around here. He used to drive his truck out onto Ohop Lake in Eatonville and drill into the ice and measure....he forgot the exact year but he said it was nearly 6" thick. My dad has pictures of his childhood house front yard downtown Puyallup...snow knee deep in January in the 70s. Similar stories from all of my Gen X family. 

Knee deep in the swamp? Hell must have frozen over for that happen. Also impressive that he use to drive his truck onto Ohop lake. What a time. 

[crf450ish]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Knee deep in the swamp? Hell must have frozen over for that happen. Also impressive that he use to drive his truck onto Ohop lake. What a time. 

I've been told similar stories from many elderly people who seen and did amazing things during winter in the 60s thru the mid 80s. One of our neighbors said her & her parents used to ice skate on greenlake around duck island when she was a kid. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

including todays one. backed off on it a bit but some extreme members

I actually like to see the PV ramp up in November (esp in -QBO) because that opens it up to earlier wave attacks, paralleling -QBO tendency to produce earlier stratwarms w/rt the seasonal radiative cycle.

In tandem, this increases the probability of the PV being in a disturbed/baroclinic state around the radiative minimum (winter solstice), which is when ozone destruction/rapid PV strengthening is most likely to occur. So avoiding that can dramatically increase the odds of high latitude blocking during the coldest part of winter.