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November 2023 Weather in the PNW


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11 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Euro/GEM wetter than SloBro

models-2023110212-f240.qpf_acc-imp.us_nw.gif

I would say maybr Vaporeon.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: TBD

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low:

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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.02” overnight. Currently mostly clear and mild. 
had a snowy morning 6 years ago today. Then a white Christmas, than an epic second half of February! That was a very nice winter! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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What’s going on with the EPS?! Are we looking at an early December BLAST?! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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November started out wet and cool with a 51/45 day on Wednesday, with just over an inch of rain out here. Classic warm front overriding cool air in place that day, with temps peaking late morning before the rain started, then falling into the mid-40s by late afternoon with evaporative cooling and Gorge winds holding on through midnight.

Yesterday went from cool with light rain and drizzle in the morning (low of 48) to startlingly mild by noon or so, with sunbreaks and mild SSW winds pushing temps into the mid 60s. 64/48 day here.

Overnight clearing has since allowed some of the densest fog of the season so far to form this morning. Visibility around 1/8 mile or less currently, with a temp of 46. Looking forward to another soaker starting later today.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

New model alert!!!

IMG_7663.jpeg

Looks good for CA. 🌊 All the cold is over in Russia/Eurasia, though.

Though I don’t trust that model after it showed a cold winter here last year. End result was the warmest winter in history. Betrayed I was.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes we CANsips!

That just looks really wet for you guys, though.

That is kind of a STJ spitfire roast for the lower-48 despite the 500mb anomalies.

I’d take my chances that storm track though. Better than anything we’ve had in 2+ years despite the lack of cold.

IMG_7695.png

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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After a slow start, Siberia/Eurasia snowcover has expanded rapidly over the last 10 days.

Let’s get that Siberian high cranking. From there we can build the +WPO/AL pattern that’ll eventually augment wave activity, disrupt the PV, and dislodge the arctic cold pool.

IMG_7696.png

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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37 minutes ago, Phil said:

That is kind of a STJ spitfire roast for the lower-48 despite the 500mb anomalies.

I’d take my chances that storm track though. Better than anything we’ve had in 2+ years despite the lack of cold.

IMG_7695.png

Warm here. As I've said a few times, I think my area will see extended periods of torching this cold season...far cry from last year.

A forum for the end of the world.

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41 minutes ago, iFred said:

https://blog.research.google/2023/11/metnet-3-state-of-art-neural-weather.html

 

Got to see some demos of this. There are raw outputs that might make it feasible for high res 90 day models with a good degree of accuracy.

Interesting approach to assimilation. Turning that into a functional long range model (esp at that resolution) would be a challenge, though? How are they planning to do that?

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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2 hours ago, Phil said:

That is kind of a STJ spitfire roast for the lower-48 despite the 500mb anomalies.

I’d take my chances that storm track though. Better than anything we’ve had in 2+ years despite the lack of cold.

IMG_7695.png

I've seen a lot worse in January. lol. Wet and average seems fine by me. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've seen a lot worse in January. lol. Wet and average seems fine by me. 

Possibly some foothill action for y'all.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Some dumpage for the ski resorts on the EC

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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Up to 66F in the warm sector. EUG at 63F.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Member 18 looks like a winner.

1.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

If I had to guess, I would say it's isentropic lift along the warm front hitting a shallow unstable layer.

The 4/3 km UW WRF resolved it, amazingly enough. 

That model is good with midlevel details.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

CANSIPS showing a return to La Niña at the end of next summer.

IMG_5793.jpeg

Mild -PDO look too

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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34 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

CANSIPS showing a return to La Niña at the end of next summer.

IMG_5793.jpeg

I believe that is unlikely to verify. For now I’d expect a progression similar to 1957/58 to 1958/59.

The IPWP is poised to extend eastward as we progress through solar maximum. Would expect a more +PDO/+ENSO theme for the remainder of the 2020s following this El Niño.

I suppose it’s possible the interdecadal IPWP extension could wait until 2025, but given the ongoing niño and higher solar cycle amplitude, I don’t see why it would.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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