ATW Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, KTPmidMO said: I saw a report that the Us Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be flying inside the storm today taking samples. If thats the case, that means we will have "true" data which will be loaded into the weather models. By 00z tonight the data suite is likely to be much more accurate than all previous guidance runs. Good luck! You’re not too far south of me. I’m hoping we get a big storm after the cold air settles in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 LMAO NAM doing NAM things on the 18Z run! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, ATW said: I’m starting to get a little more excited. Columbia is in a good spot even according to the European model. Just don’t want to see any big shifts. Suppose to get pretty cold Tuesday night so what sticks will be set. Good luck to you to Clinton. You’re not too far from me. Good luck to you also. Our part of the country seems to get more last minute model shifts than others, so our wild ride isn't over yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Here comes the watches! WHAT...Blizzard possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 or more inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 to 60 mph creating whiteout or near whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Kansas. * WHEN...From Monday morning through early Tuesday Morning. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Republic, Washington and Cloud Counties. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, gabel23 said: LMAO NAM doing NAM things on the 18Z run! I was thinking the same thing! LOL. Never change NAM. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Good luck to you also. Our part of the country seems to get more last minute model shifts than others, so our wild ride isn't over yet. I can’t complain. I’ve done well many times. We really need to score at least once with this pattern during the month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Evaporative cooling in action. Watch the 850 mb temps fall below 0C east/northeast of the 850 mb low. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 18z NAM 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 NWS Topeka has initially issued a three county watch for this system for up to 6" of snow towards north central KS including Concordia. Not sure what their thinking is yet or if a wider area is coming later. (Edit: I see @gabel23 mentioned this in his post above.) 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Evaporative cooling in action. Watch the 850 mb temps fall below 0C east/northeast of the 850 mb low. Dynamic cooling! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Tom said: Dynamic cooling! Yeah that's a factor as well. There is quite a bit of dry air that will have to erode though before precip onset. Here's a forecast sounding from western Indiana that shows the dry wedge aloft (large gap between the green and red lines for anyone who doesn't know how to read these things) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, mlgamer said: NWS Topeka has initially issued a three county watch for this system for up to 6" of snow towards north central KS including Concordia. Not sure what their thinking is yet or if a wider area is coming later. (Edit: I see @gabel23 mentioned this in his post above.) Come on and scoot that box one more county east!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 28 minutes ago, gabel23 said: Here comes the watches! WHAT...Blizzard possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 or more inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 to 60 mph creating whiteout or near whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Kansas. * WHEN...From Monday morning through early Tuesday Morning. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Republic, Washington and Cloud Counties. 15z SREF to 87 hours, 10:1 ratio. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 FYI 18z Icon is significantly NW compared to its 12z run 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Reading all these in-depth AFDs and watches makes me wonder what's going on at NWS FSD. Their afternoon AFD today mentions an increasing chance of accumulations but only tops out at around 3 inches for areas south of me near the Missouri River. My zone forecast calls for "light accumulations" on Monday. They seem to be reacting awfully slow to some of these models that are showing 6+ inches. I'd imagine their tune will change a bit if the stronger solutions continue over the weekend. If they don't and the heavier accumulations verify, they are going to have some big egg on their face come Tuesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Reading all these in-depth AFDs and watches makes me wonder what's going on at NWS FSD. Their afternoon AFD today mentions an increasing chance of accumulations but only tops out at around 3 inches. My zone forecast calls for "light accumulations" on Monday. They seem to be reacting awfully slow to some of these models that are showing 6+ inches. I'd imagine their tune will change a bit if the stronger solutions continue over the weekend. If they don't and the heavier accumulations verify, they are going to have some big egg on their face come Tuesday. That 15z SREF and NAM caught my attention for sure. We’ll see what the weekend models do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Money said: FYI 18z Icon is significantly NW compared to its 12z run 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Omaha issuing Winter Storm Watches. I'm a little surprised they are issued this early and with amounts listed given the great degree of uncertainty, although near Omaha the uncertainty is considerably less than areas further east. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Iowa and east central, northeast, and southeast Nebraska. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 I really hope this is one of those storms where the Euro is more right and the GFS is wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Just now, bud2380 said: I really hope this is one of those storms where the Euro is more right and the GFS is wrong. If it makes you feel any better, as of the update for the 00z runs tonight, the Euro continues to perform better than the GFS. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Anyone have the 18z Euro control? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: Anyone have the 18z Euro control? Won't be out for about 2 more hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: If it makes you feel any better, as of the update for the 00z runs tonight, the Euro continues to perform better than the GFS. As I was saying, I sure hope the GFS is dead on through the extended... I live near that blue dot in the area I circled. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Wow...Topeka NWS is not the least bit impressed with this system. I'm guessing they're thinking warm thermals but who knows. Here is their initial snow forecast map... 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Wow...Topeka NWS is not the least bit impressed with this system. I'm guessing they're thinking warm thermals but who knows. Here is their initial snow forecast map... That’s not what i was expecting considering what the models are showing today… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 47 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: Anyone have the 18z Euro control? It will be out around 7 I'll post it when it's up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 18z GEFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 18z Euro 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 21z SREF to 87 hours. 10:1 ratio 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Euro at hr 90 18z Euro control and EPS 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 From the WPC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Local mets don’t seem to be very impressed with this system. TOP especially. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 26 minutes ago, Clinton said: Euro at hr 90 18z Euro control and EPS Nice front end thump signal stretching eastward through IN, although some of that is probably snow from the next 1-2 days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: 974 mb on an ensemble mean at 5 days out is fairly impressive. No doubt. Normally (especially this season) I'd be stoked about that 998 SLP coming my way, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 6 hours ago, Pros3lyte said: Man. SE MI is heartbreak hotel as usual! Yep. Why I had to get out of there. And unlike Hotel California, I actually left. I think we've been sub-freezing up here for at least the past 3 days if not longer. Latest from the WPC hazards folks. A few winners and losers in the last 24 hrs 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up_north_MI Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Yep. Why I had to get out of there. And unlike Hotel California, I actually left. I think we've been sub-freezing up here for at least the past 3 days if not longer. Latest from the WPC hazards folks. A few winners and losers in the last 24 hrs You’re new area looks to be in a pretty good spot for some decent system snow the next week or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Two different departments of the same WPC agency no doubt, but this map sure doesn't add up to "HIGH WINDS" in places outlined on the hazards map including here. I don't see SMI being windier than NMI if the MSLP flashed by the EPS happens. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Joplin met who works with Lezak seems bullish on snowfall amounts for Kansas and Missouri. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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