1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Black Hole]

13 minutes ago, Tom said:

Here it comes...snow flakes will be flying just about Lunchtime and it appears to rip hard till late evening across the White Mountains...

 

I stayed at Pinetop Lakeside for a summer getaway once. Great area. I almost moved to Flagstaff as well. I could do without the traffic but they sure can get some big snows. 

[Tom]

Just now, Black Hole said:

I stayed at Pinetop Lakeside for a summer getaway once. Great area. I almost moved to Flagstaff as well. I could do without the traffic but they sure can get some big snows. 

Yes!  I stayed at Pinetop a couple years back and its gorgeous.  I love the tall Pines and it looks almost like Aspen, CO.  I'm going to take a look and see what area to drive up tomorrow morning.  It's either going to be Pinetop or Greer.  Greer is a little higher in elevation and are expecting more snow.  

[CentralNebWeather]

NAM and 3KM look juiced. 

[CentralNebWeather]

3KM only to 60 hours

 

[Money]

NAM not backing down yet and has the low even further NW

[Money]

NAM 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z NAM 

[Grizzcoat]

Nam  may be on to something. System is mostly onshore. Well see about other guidance.

[bud2380]

The NAM takes the SLP through Dubuque. I don’t see that happening given all other guidance. But what fun would this be if the models all agreed? 

[KTPmidMO]

NAM was absolutely pathetic and ugly here for me in Central MO, to be honest I hope that's not what other models start trending to. I would have been pretty much in the bullseye here all week to only get the rug pulled out from under me the day or 2 before.

[Money]

Here’s the 6z Euro at HR 90

[Money]

Same story each run. Icon is once again shifting NW earlier on with that first wave 

[Grizzcoat]

11 minutes ago, Money said:

Here’s the 6z Euro at HR 90

Here's the EURO yday from 12Z at HR 108

[Grizzcoat]

ICON HR 69

[Money]

1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

ICON HR 69

Looks a lot like the NAM 

[hawkstwelve]

12z ICON is showing almost 11 inches here at 10:1 ratios which would be over a foot with our usual 13:1 ratio. That's gotta be overkill. If it's not, there's going to be a lot of surprised people around here come Monday. 

[Black Hole]

I've been watching this storm with model tracks over me for 2 weeks...but the last minute trend north will leave me with nothing but flurries...if that! Weird to look at how cold and strong the storm is and with a pretty good track and still have nothing to show for it. 

[Money]

GFs also coming in NW early on 

[Money]

GFS at 66

[Money]

Definitely NW compared to 6z

[Grizzcoat]

Wow-is that trowal at HR 78 on GFS retrograding or what? - 12yday compared to most recent - keep it up!!!

[Clinton]

12z GFS is about as good as it can get for mby.

[Clinton]

12z GFS

[Hawkeye]

I'd say 3-6" is looking increasingly likely here.  I'll take it.

[Clinton]

12z CMC took a jump north, now more in line with the GFS and Euro on track.

[Clinton]

12z GFS complete run

[KTPmidMO]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS complete run

The way models are trending im about to be missed to the north with the main snow field..

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said:

The way models are trending im about to be missed to the north with the main snow field..

Its getting a little close but I think you'll be ok.  Fingers crossed

[bud2380]

GFS has joined the Euro and NAM to a degree I. Coming further north. Totals are increasing significantly for my area. Up to 6” or so now even on the GFS

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS showing 9 inches here now. 12z CMC coming in with a little jog north with the heaviest totals up here, which moves me from 3 on the 00z to 6 on the 12z. 

Nice trends in crunch time for here which is good because I have a feeling the later week systems will stay further south. 

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS with a jog NW in C/E IA--

Low now further N in MO.

[james1976]

That band that develops west of the TC just falls apart before getting here. It looks like the omadome here on the snowfall maps lol.

[Grizzcoat]

Like a two county jog N and W in Central and E. IA on GEFS-- if the trend continues== oh my!!

 

[Money]

NAM for the win 

[Grizzcoat]

UKIE with big shift N on snow shield in MO.. STL goes from 1' to 1".

[bud2380]

23 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Like a two county jog N and W in Central and E. IA on GEFS-- if the trend continues== oh my!!

 

Wow. What a change here in the IC/CR area. 8-10”. I know it’s 10:1 but still huge jump. 

[Hoosier]

It's a little early and I reserve the right to change, but with the thermal and track issues, I have a hard time seeing more than 3-4" total here.  It's possible that a majority of that comes in the initial WAA thump.  Hope things can trend better.  

[Money]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Wow. What a change here in the IC/CR area. 8-10”. I know it’s 10:1 but still huge jump. 

Trend is our friend right now: nothing to really stop this from cutting further north 

[Hawkeye]

14 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

UKIE with big shift N on snow shield in MO..

The UK, like all other models, has shifted the initial surge of snow north into Iowa.  However, it still totally misses me with the main wave.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Money said:

Trend is our friend right now: nothing to really stop this from cutting further north 

The significant weaker/east trend that we have seen so many systems pull off in recent years has apparently decided to not show up this time.  Or at least not so far.