January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

To be clear. This has been a hugely positive shift for Seattle and surrounding areas.

sure a single digit freeze would be fun for a day. But I’ll take 30 and snowy any day.

i know I know. Euro doesn’t show the snow!! It’s there. I promise. Been doing this long enough. Gfs was on to it the entire time.

So Washingtonians. Dont let your Oregon brethren get you down. This has multi day epic snow storm written all over it.

Champagne should be popping.

oh. And that is why weather underground shows that snow for Bothell, because it’s coming.

Single digits haven't occurred in 33 odd years in Seattle; I might actually shed a tear should we manage in my lifetime.

Since joining this website I have recieved exactly fifty inches of snow, most of which being fluffy powder, in fat, large individual thumpings. I'd be fairly excited for a heavy snow, yeah, but the cold is what has been really lacking.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Could characterize this ensemble as showing a lot of uncertainty. Could go either way. Definitely lost a number of cold members.

Not as bad as I thought. Uncertainty is the name of the game.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

To be clear. This has been a hugely positive shift for Seattle and surrounding areas.

sure a single digit freeze would be fun for a day. But I’ll take 30 and snowy any day.

i know I know. Euro doesn’t show the snow!! It’s there. I promise. Been doing this long enough. Gfs was on to it the entire time.

So Washingtonians. Dont let your Oregon brethren get you down. This has multi day epic snow storm written all over it.

Champagne should be popping.

oh. And that is why weather underground shows that snow for Bothell, because it’s coming.

I think some people in WA on here were hoping for extreme cold so you probably can't assume everyone agrees with this being a "hugely positive shift".    And you don't want the warming trend to continue or this will be a BC only event by tomorrow.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Hope this doesn’t turn into a Canadian only event. Just being real. 

 Jan 2020: not “Canadian only” but anyone south of about Mossman did get skunked.

[TT-SEA]

EPS for Seattle.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 Jan 2020: not “Canadian only” but anyone south of about Mossman did get skunked.

Nope, areas south of Woodinville and Bothell skunked maybe. Snowed on 12 and 15. Nearly a foot in some areas.

[Requiem]

One of these years there's gotta be a reverse 2019 type season where the gradient is Eugene to Portland instead of Olympia to Bellingham 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS for Seattle.

Jim would have been ecstatic to the point of bouncing off the walls to have seen a model run like that a few weeks ago.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Requiem said:

One of these years there's gotta be a reverse 2019 type season where the gradient is Eugene to Portland instead of Olympia to Bellingham 

Doubt it.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Jim would have been ecstatic to the point of bouncing off the walls to have seen a model run like that a few weeks ago.

But does the trending stop here?   That is the big question.   

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think some people in WA on here were hoping for extreme cold so you probably can't assume everyone agrees with this being a "hugely positive shift".    And you don't want the warming trend to continue or this will be a BC only event by tomorrow.  

Our Canadian friends shouldn’t get to excited. Pretty soon only areas north of Squamish will get snow

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Our Canadian friends shouldn’t get to excited. Pretty soon only areas north of Squamish will get snow

That sometimes happens!

[Snowlova]

If we even get a Feb 6, 2017 repeat where it's 6+ inches of snow but temps are marginal and snow only sticks around for a couple days, I'd be pretty happy given what kind of winter this is supposed to be. Beggars can't be choosers ig

[Cloud]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And how crazy cold the Euro was then. Climo almost always wins.

Yup. And remember couple days ago we had a discussion where I’d be more willing to wager on a 20F more so than I do a 14F or 4F. Have lived here for more than 3 decades to know better about this climate. This upcoming shot is great but we need to stop the trend. 

[AbbyJr]

Question: Is the Spire on WeatherBell the same as the Graphcast?

 

[TT-SEA]

I am sure the 06Z GFS will finally settle this.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Here it comes!

[Bonovox]

4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Question: Is the Spire on WeatherBell the same as the Graphcast?

 

No, two separate products. 

[TT-SEA]

As it stands now... it will be snowing in western OR in just 48 hours.  Well before the cold air even arrives.   Bird in the hand.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But does the trending stop here?   That is the big question.   

My money is on continued wavering with a general trend towards moderation. In other words, we are due for a cooler run.

[Perturbed Member]

3km NAM 06Z

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

3km NAM 06Z

Snowy!

[Slushy Inch]

NAM a third shift west in a row on the 10th. Also a shift later on. Not sure if it will mean anything.

[Requiem]

Someone really could get dumped on w that Wednesday low, some crazy heavy rates modeled albeit at marginal temps for actual accumulation 

[theRunner]

Does anyone have any quantitative numbers on where the warming has trended in the last few days? is it possible it wipes out the possibility of snow completely for Washingtonians, or does it mean we probably see temps in the 20s/30s instead of 10s? Also, call me out if I'm wrong here but is this not a positive trend for pure snow lovers, I assume slightly warmer temps helps precip. 

[The Winter Warlock]

6 minutes ago, theRunner said:

Does anyone have any quantitative numbers on where the warming has trended in the last few days? is it possible it wipes out the possibility of snow completely for Washingtonians, or does it mean we probably see temps in the 20s/30s instead of 10s? Also, call me out if I'm wrong here but is this not a positive trend for pure snow lovers, I assume slightly warmer temps helps precip. 

Yes.

[lowlandsnow]

The ICON is running

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

The ICON is running

Well, better hurry up and catch it.

[Perturbed Member]

21 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Someone really could get dumped on w that Wednesday low, some crazy heavy rates modeled albeit at marginal temps for actual accumulation 

Yeah it is a pretty dynamic feature. If things come together just right for someone on the north side of it, no reason why you couldn't get a quick heavy wet snow fall with several inches. 

It won't be a very widespread area of course. 

[Meatyorologist]

Don't hate the move on the 06z ICON for the NPac.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS is running soon, for shits and giggles

[eastvancouver]

32 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

The ICON is running

I have no doubt that it will be fine.

[Requiem]

Metro ice storm look to the ICON

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z ICON. Big shift towards the Euro/GFS

 

[Meatyorologist]

ICON in one run goes back to successfully completing the wavebreak. It's monday, everyone.

[Gradient Keeper]

Big snow storm heading for PDX on the ICON

[Meatyorologist]

The polar lobe is a tad further away but the Pacific is a decent improvement. This run might be a way we avoid AL/SW flow in the long range.

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1.5 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend) hmmm....