January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Meatyorologist]

Onto part two before the end of the first week of 2024... Starting the year off strong!

[Phishy Wx]

IN

[Tyler Mode]

Midnight high of 45 here, now 39.  0.84" on the day.

[Phishy Wx]

might want to post a link in the other thread or lock it?

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

might want to post a link in the other thread or lock it?

It's there! About to do that in a sec

[Frontal Snowsquall]

LETS GOO COLD AND SNOW!!!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

18Z Euro end of run

[Groundhog]

Webcam of Grouse Mountain above Vancouver, BC. She is a beaut, Clark.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

18Z Euro end of run

Oh boy let’s see control 

[runninthruda206]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

IN

 

[Slushy Inch]

18eps another shift west.

[Cold Snap]

Crazy we aren’t even into the second week of the month yet and we already need a part 2. Might end up needing to make a part 3.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

18eps another shift west.

How's the control at hr 144?

[snow_wizard]

18z EPS looks good.  Colder than the 12z.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

How's the control at hr 144?

[RentonHill]

Better!!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How's the control at hr 144?

132 is a little prettier.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z ACCESS-G (Australia) model is onboard as well.

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

This is a friendly reminder to SAVE and UPLOAD your images and videos to your posts!

Do NOT copy and paste image URLs! They WILL expire and we WILL lose all of our awesome pepto maps! Fred has few screenshots to commemorate February 2019; since tragically, all the Pivotal links to five year old GFS runs are toast, along with the images they came with.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Better!!

That is pretty real cold right there.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

My mom just called me to find out if it's going to snow. Apparently, she thinks I have special knowledge from my internet sources. Told her I'd get back to her on Tuesday after we know what that low pressure system does. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[snow_wizard]

Some vodka cold in this image.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

My mom just called me to find out if it's going to snow. Apparently, she thinks I have special knowledge from my internet sources. Told her I'd get back to her on Tuesday after we know what that low pressure system does. 

You didn't even give a good guess?

[snow_wizard]

The mean is 2F colder for surface temps vs the 12z.  23 in SEA mid morning Friday.

[SpaceRace22]

8 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z ACCESS-G (Australia) model is onboard as well.

 

 

 

TIL Australia has a model, lol

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

132 is a little prettier.

That looks great. Is the blocking better than the 12z?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

My mom just called me to find out if it's going to snow. Apparently, she thinks I have special knowledge from my internet sources. Told her I'd get back to her on Tuesday after we know what that low pressure system does. 

I’ve told my friends its happening. Also told them that if they had heard reports of historic cold coming to ignore those.

[SpaceRace22]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is a friendly reminder to SAVE and UPLOAD your images and videos to your posts!

Do NOT copy and paste image URLs! They WILL expire and we WILL lose all of our awesome pepto maps! Fred has few screenshots to commemorate February 2019; since tragically, all the Pivotal links to five year old GFS runs are toast, along with the images they came with.

THIS. There is so much value in going back and looking at past events. I would really like to have meaningful data in 10 years where we can compile what all the various models were doing in the leadup to every big event.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’ve told my friends its happening. Also told them that if they had heard reports of historic cold coming to ignore those.

Not sure why you're so sure it won't get that cold.

[SpaceRace22]

I thought this was interesting. Forecast scores for every AI model. Looks like GraphCast and the AIFS are tied for most accurate within day 5, and FuXi wins out after day 5.

 

[SnowWillarrive]

I bet that little snowman tastes good. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why you're so sure it won't get that cold.

Same reason I think a given lottery ticket won’t be a winner, or that a meteor is not going to hit my house in 2024.

Sorry, Jim, there won’t be a 1950 redux. If you believe otherwise, let’s have a friendly wager.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You didn't even give a good guess?

I told her that there's still some uncertainty about how cold it's going to get and whether there will be snow or not and that we'd have a better idea on Tuesday. 

 

I also told her that it's between cold but less snow or not as cold and more snow. And that there is still some chance of it not getting cold or snow, but that seems less likely. (My mom hates driving in the snow, so if I say it's going to, she'll start freaking out.)

 

My dad only wants to know if it's going to be cold AND windy in case he needs to go in the crawl space and block off the vents. He doesn't care if it snows, but is going to have a medical procedure on Thursday and can't drive hence my mom starting to freak out.

 

They're retired, so they can hit the grocery store while the masses are at work on Wednesday if needed.

[Cloud]

Chunky rain confirmed and a huge lightning flash right over me about 30 mins ago. 

[TT-SEA]

EPS control run is faster... quite a bit of a SE shift at 144 hours compared to 12Z run at 150 hours.

And plenty of arctic front snow for Randy!  

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Same reason I think a given lottery ticket won’t be a winner, or that a meteor is not going to hit my house in 2024.

Sorry, Jim, there won’t be a 1950 redux. If you believe otherwise, let’s have a friendly wager.

Record lows at SEA will be pretty difficult to touch with this cold spell. The records in the period of question 1/11-1/15 roughly are in the low teens. From 1963 and 1950. 

[Slushy Inch]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is a friendly reminder to SAVE and UPLOAD your images and videos to your posts!

Do NOT copy and paste image URLs! They WILL expire and we WILL lose all of our awesome pepto maps! Fred has few screenshots to commemorate February 2019; since tragically, all the Pivotal links to five year old GFS runs are toast, along with the images they came with.

Too. Bad copy paste is easier 

[Meatyorologist]

Going from one convergence zone to another. From the Olympics, to Vancouver Island!

[CloudJunkie]

No more 50-burgers!! I'm now on Team Frost Taco.