Jump to content

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Because it’s as close as we can get to a euro operational run at 18z. And I’d bet it’s really dam close. It’s usually in total lockstep with the operational out to day 6 in 12z/00z runs

Didn't they increase the resolution for ensembles to be the same as the operational as well?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

His “the roads will be too warm” is my favorite flop ever. Snow that night started sticking to the roads immediately when the heavy stuff kicked in, in f****** April!

Nah, the October windstorm he hyped back in what, 2015? 2016? that didn't happen at all is the biggest. I get that it had huge potential, but it also had to have everything go perfectly to happen and it didn't. Schools cancelled after school activities because of a storm they thought was coming, and it didn't get windy at all. I understand why, but the probability of a bust was not communicated well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Why do we get so excited over a control run?  I really am curious.  

When it's this close it has value.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Well, I am definitely NOT emailing him and inviting him to @iFred's meet up on Thursday. Don't want to get his wrath again. Maybe Fred should invite him though? Could he ride his bike to the location or is it too far from the Burke Gilman Trail?

Did he actually yell at you?

  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, The Cats Meow said:

Anybody concerned about the trajectory of the incoming cold?  D**n near looks like it's going to have to jump the Cascades and spread west rather than a north to south ride.  I just never like seeing/relying on cold coming from that direction.  Those mountains can be hard to jump.

Plenty of it gets pushed / pulled westward over Canada.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I think we’re gonna have this baby locked in by tomorrow night. 

IMG_1649.png

Frankly if the 00z GFS caves hard tonight and all the other models continue to hold firm, I'm probably good to call this locked in after the 06z tonight.

  • Like 4
  • Excited 1
  • scream 1
  • bongocat-test 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Same reason I think a given lottery ticket won’t be a winner, or that a meteor is not going to hit my house in 2024.

Sorry, Jim, there won’t be a 1950 redux. If you believe otherwise, let’s have a friendly wager.

Just saying a lot of models have shown a pretty serious cold shot.  Even more true up your way.  I could easily see Friday having a high in the teens up there.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hey cliff mass we know about the 5 day rule, always have.

We choose to discuss all possibilities of weather and say what we want. 

 

It's not just Cliff Mass. It continually blows my mind how incapable some people are of understanding that some people like to look at and share individual model runs without it being a 100% endorsement that they think that exact scenario is for sure going to happen. It is possible to get excited at an extreme solution and discuss the possibilities while recognizing that at the end of the day, the less extreme outcome is always going to be the most likely.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Precip turned to snow here just before it ended... second coating of the day.  

  • Like 6
  • Snow 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Minion said:

Might mention the grass is to long 

It was 40 degrees and raining here 30 minutes ago and now the ground is coated in snow... it stuck immediately with a temp of 34.

  • Like 7
  • Snow 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This graphic… IMG_1028.jpeg.2af0e43aa614edb41df8700087a18129.jpeg

It’s like they are purposely trying to confuse people 😂

  • lol 4

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So Cliff actually said, if you cared to read it, that he doesn't make any predictions for major weather beyond 5 days because the skill of the models goes downhill rapidly.  

Fair enough.  But he also said the  chances for a snowstorm is increasingly doubtful.  Not sure why, I get the uncertainty, but it makes me wonder if he just looks at the GFS.  And that would be strange considering he has been so critical of the GFS.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It was 40 degrees and raining here 30 minutes ago and now the ground is coated in snow... it stuck immediately with a temp of 34.

So the grass isn't too long? Cool ❄️ 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Did he actually yell at you?

Over email when I was a stupid college student over 20 years ago, yes. In all fairness, I was not his student, and my email was stupid and kind of naive rather than malicious. But yeah, he was quite cross in his reply as one who has read his blog can probably imagine. 

  • Like 1
  • lol 4
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Minion said:

So the grass isn't too long? Cool ❄️ 

No... mowed it short last fall.  

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

@TigerWoodsLibido is in the blue. Must be a mistake. We have his assurance nothing ever happens in his town.

I'm wondering how much of that is legit? Could certainly be, but there could be some terrain bleed or phantom snow. My guess is some 750' snow levels could happen at night. Maybe some splats at some point here at 500' in downtown Springfield about 40ft up from the waterfront.

The mountains will do well at least and we need that down here.

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Over email when I was a stupid college student over 20 years ago, yes. In all fairness, I was not his student, and my email was stupid and kind of naive rather than malicious. But yeah, he was quite cross in his reply as one who has read his blog can probably imagine. 

Lol the username is amazing 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Precip turned to snow here just before it ended... second coating of the day.  

I had some hail here.

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So Cliff actually said, if you cared to read it, that he doesn't make any predictions for major weather beyond 5 days because the skill of the models goes downhill rapidly.  

Fair enough.  But he also said the  chances for a snowstorm is increasingly doubtful.  Not sure why, I get the uncertainty, but it makes me wonder if he just looks at the GFS.  And that would be strange considering he has been so critical of the GFS.

He hates cold and snow because he can't ride his bike. He must look at the euro he always calls is the gold standard.  

  • Like 1
  • Excited 2

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're having fun on here.  We must be feeling a bit more comfortable something has a good chance of happening!

  • Like 5

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Over email when I was a stupid college student over 20 years ago, yes. In all fairness, I was not his student, and my email was stupid and kind of naive rather than malicious. But yeah, he was quite cross in his reply as one who has read his blog can probably imagine. 

Haha. He seems like a serious guy. Obviously isn’t as obsessed about snow and cold as us. Or contains his excitement for some reason 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And I apologize for my meltdown earlier. My bad day doesn't need to be projected onto y'all. I truly hope folks get snow and get to post amazing snow photos.

You have a legit shot.

  • Like 6
  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My roads never seem to be too warm! 

IMG_1593.jpeg

IMG_1594.jpeg

How did you get a pic from the future?    That is going to be Friday up there.  

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Minion said:

So the grass isn't too long? Cool ❄️ 

My grass popped a bit during our summer weather a few weeks ago! 

  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And I apologize for my meltdown earlier. My bad day doesn't need to be projected onto y'all. I truly hope folks get snow and get to post amazing snow photos.

We're all human, and anyone who isn't able to understand and forgive for grouchy nonsense on a semi-anonymous internet forum probably has some own self reflection to do. No meltdown apologies needed here imo

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Haha. He seems like a serious guy. Obviously isn’t as obsessed about snow and cold as us. Or contains his excitement for some reason 

I think he really, really likes to be right. And that's hard in meteorology. You'll notice that his post from a few days ago mentioned the possibility of snow in the lowlands, but didn't commit. Which does make sense because there is uncertainty. But he doesn't want to be wrong (who does?) so he wants to temper expectations with lots of talk of uncertainty but still mention the possibility and then make predictions when things are much closer. 

 

It makes sense, but it also feels kind of defensive at times, especially when he makes declarations like the ground being too warm or whatever. The models can be wrong, but he can't be.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...