January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Because it’s as close as we can get to a euro operational run at 18z. And I’d bet it’s really dam close. It’s usually in total lockstep with the operational out to day 6 in 12z/00z runs

Didn't they increase the resolution for ensembles to be the same as the operational as well?

[the_convergence_zone]

I think we’re gonna have this baby locked in by tomorrow night. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

His “the roads will be too warm” is my favorite flop ever. Snow that night started sticking to the roads immediately when the heavy stuff kicked in, in f****** April!

Nah, the October windstorm he hyped back in what, 2015? 2016? that didn't happen at all is the biggest. I get that it had huge potential, but it also had to have everything go perfectly to happen and it didn't. Schools cancelled after school activities because of a storm they thought was coming, and it didn't get windy at all. I understand why, but the probability of a bust was not communicated well.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Why do we get so excited over a control run?  I really am curious.  

When it's this close it has value.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Well, I am definitely NOT emailing him and inviting him to @iFred's meet up on Thursday. Don't want to get his wrath again. Maybe Fred should invite him though? Could he ride his bike to the location or is it too far from the Burke Gilman Trail?

Did he actually yell at you?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, The Cats Meow said:

Anybody concerned about the trajectory of the incoming cold?  D**n near looks like it's going to have to jump the Cascades and spread west rather than a north to south ride.  I just never like seeing/relying on cold coming from that direction.  Those mountains can be hard to jump.

Plenty of it gets pushed / pulled westward over Canada.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hey cliff mass we know about the 5 day rule, always have.

We choose to discuss all possibilities of weather and say what we want. 

 

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I think we’re gonna have this baby locked in by tomorrow night. 

Frankly if the 00z GFS caves hard tonight and all the other models continue to hold firm, I'm probably good to call this locked in after the 06z tonight.

[snow_wizard]

35 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Same reason I think a given lottery ticket won’t be a winner, or that a meteor is not going to hit my house in 2024.

Sorry, Jim, there won’t be a 1950 redux. If you believe otherwise, let’s have a friendly wager.

Just saying a lot of models have shown a pretty serious cold shot.  Even more true up your way.  I could easily see Friday having a high in the teens up there.

[SnowySeeker50]

Moderate graupel shower right now

[Minion]

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why you're so sure it won't get that cold.

He said " historical cold" isn't coming lol which he is right to tell his friends that. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

This graphic… 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Cliff if he shows his *ss at the meetup next week 

I can pick him up with my truck, he can ride in the bed. 

 

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hey cliff mass we know about the 5 day rule, always have.

We choose to discuss all possibilities of weather and say what we want. 

 

It's not just Cliff Mass. It continually blows my mind how incapable some people are of understanding that some people like to look at and share individual model runs without it being a 100% endorsement that they think that exact scenario is for sure going to happen. It is possible to get excited at an extreme solution and discuss the possibilities while recognizing that at the end of the day, the less extreme outcome is always going to be the most likely.

[Minion]

26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Did he mention the roads being too warm?

Might mention the grass is to long 

[TT-SEA]

Precip turned to snow here just before it ended... second coating of the day.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Minion said:

Might mention the grass is to long 

It was 40 degrees and raining here 30 minutes ago and now the ground is coated in snow... it stuck immediately with a temp of 34.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This graphic… 

It’s like they are purposely trying to confuse people

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

So Cliff actually said, if you cared to read it, that he doesn't make any predictions for major weather beyond 5 days because the skill of the models goes downhill rapidly.  

Fair enough.  But he also said the  chances for a snowstorm is increasingly doubtful.  Not sure why, I get the uncertainty, but it makes me wonder if he just looks at the GFS.  And that would be strange considering he has been so critical of the GFS.

[Minion]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It was 40 degrees and raining here 30 minutes ago and now the ground is coated in snow... it stuck immediately with a temp of 34.

So the grass isn't too long? Cool  

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Did he actually yell at you?

Over email when I was a stupid college student over 20 years ago, yes. In all fairness, I was not his student, and my email was stupid and kind of naive rather than malicious. But yeah, he was quite cross in his reply as one who has read his blog can probably imagine. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Minion said:

So the grass isn't too long? Cool  

No... mowed it short last fall.  

[MossMan]

My roads never seem to be too warm! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

@TigerWoodsLibido is in the blue. Must be a mistake. We have his assurance nothing ever happens in his town.

I'm wondering how much of that is legit? Could certainly be, but there could be some terrain bleed or phantom snow. My guess is some 750' snow levels could happen at night. Maybe some splats at some point here at 500' in downtown Springfield about 40ft up from the waterfront.

The mountains will do well at least and we need that down here.

[Minion]

Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Over email when I was a stupid college student over 20 years ago, yes. In all fairness, I was not his student, and my email was stupid and kind of naive rather than malicious. But yeah, he was quite cross in his reply as one who has read his blog can probably imagine. 

Lol the username is amazing 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Precip turned to snow here just before it ended... second coating of the day.  

I had some hail here.

[TT-SEA]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So Cliff actually said, if you cared to read it, that he doesn't make any predictions for major weather beyond 5 days because the skill of the models goes downhill rapidly.  

Fair enough.  But he also said the  chances for a snowstorm is increasingly doubtful.  Not sure why, I get the uncertainty, but it makes me wonder if he just looks at the GFS.  And that would be strange considering he has been so critical of the GFS.

He hates cold and snow because he can't ride his bike. He must look at the euro he always calls is the gold standard.  

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This graphic… 

I like it! 

There's a 67% chance the low will be below 30 degrees on Friday? Not bad.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And I apologize for my meltdown earlier. My bad day doesn't need to be projected onto y'all. I truly hope folks get snow and get to post amazing snow photos.

Esp @MR.SNOWMIZER @snow_wizard @SilverFallsAndrew @TT-SEA @Meatyorologist @MossMan @Deweydog @Cold Snap and @iFred plus lots of others.

Y'all are a class act and I'm truly grateful for this forum.

[snow_wizard]

We're having fun on here.  We must be feeling a bit more comfortable something has a good chance of happening!

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Over email when I was a stupid college student over 20 years ago, yes. In all fairness, I was not his student, and my email was stupid and kind of naive rather than malicious. But yeah, he was quite cross in his reply as one who has read his blog can probably imagine. 

Haha. He seems like a serious guy. Obviously isn’t as obsessed about snow and cold as us. Or contains his excitement for some reason 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And I apologize for my meltdown earlier. My bad day doesn't need to be projected onto y'all. I truly hope folks get snow and get to post amazing snow photos.

You have a legit shot.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My roads never seem to be too warm! 

How did you get a pic from the future?    That is going to be Friday up there.  

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Minion said:

So the grass isn't too long? Cool  

My grass popped a bit during our summer weather a few weeks ago! 

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And I apologize for my meltdown earlier. My bad day doesn't need to be projected onto y'all. I truly hope folks get snow and get to post amazing snow photos.

We're all human, and anyone who isn't able to understand and forgive for grouchy nonsense on a semi-anonymous internet forum probably has some own self reflection to do. No meltdown apologies needed here imo

[Minion]

Just now, MossMan said:

My grass popped a bit during our summer weather a few weeks ago! 

Gotta love when that happens ! Haha

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

How did you get a pic from the future?    That is going to be Friday up there.  

Nope, those pics don't show enough snow to be next Friday.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Haha. He seems like a serious guy. Obviously isn’t as obsessed about snow and cold as us. Or contains his excitement for some reason 

I think he really, really likes to be right. And that's hard in meteorology. You'll notice that his post from a few days ago mentioned the possibility of snow in the lowlands, but didn't commit. Which does make sense because there is uncertainty. But he doesn't want to be wrong (who does?) so he wants to temper expectations with lots of talk of uncertainty but still mention the possibility and then make predictions when things are much closer. 

 

It makes sense, but it also feels kind of defensive at times, especially when he makes declarations like the ground being too warm or whatever. The models can be wrong, but he can't be.

[GHweatherChris]

I was gonna mow in preparation for snow, its out of hand this winter (been super busy), but I sacrificed a pristine base for snowfall to incentivize it to actually happen.