January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[SnowWillarrive]

I really hope this arctic front can drop a wide spread 1 inch going into this. 

[Deweydog]

Current similarities to 1998 are almost scary. Only big picture difference is the NAO.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What time is the flight?

9am friday

[Doinko]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Current similarities to 1998 are almost scary. Only big picture difference is the NAO.

Hopefully we get a bit more than 1998 here! I think we probably had a wintry mix for a lot of that event being right on the border

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

UKMET is a great run for PDX metro. Two lows come in the perfect spot.

Looks like the storm total for PDX is 11.6”. EURO had 9.3”. So good agreement there. Will probably get some ice with it to but we will see. Fun runs ahead!!!

 

[Front Ranger]

ICON still keeps the Fri/Sat system south as well, similar to GEM and UKMET.

So once again we have the GFS blazing its own trail...especially if Euro does not agree.

[MossMan]

Was amazing when I left the house with snow falling and starting to stick to the grass and bark. 3 minutes and less than a mile later I arrive at work and it’s just some chunky rain. Sure do like where I live lol. 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Current similarities to 1998 are almost scary. Only big picture difference is the NAO.

Even the timing of it is almost identical. I remember the snow starting up on Saturday late afternoon. 

[Perturbed Member]

The 12z GFS is a cruel joke down here. The arctic front doesn't really even make it to Olympia let alone PDX. There are plenty of other models that produce a decent outcome here but hard to ignore the GFS completely when it has been leading the way.

Hopefully the 12z Euro doesn't screw us completely. 

[MossMan]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

ICON still keeps the Fri/Sat system south as well, similar to GEM and UKMET.

So once again we have the GFS blazing its own trail...especially if Euro does not agree.

Go GFS! 

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

ICON still keeps the Fri/Sat system south as well, similar to GEM and UKMET.

So once again we have the GFS blazing its own trail...especially if Euro does not agree.

It looked like about a quarter of 06Z Euro members were bringing accumulating snow up to Sea-Tac.

But the GFS is in its own world with those 8"+ numbers. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I believe Dec 2008 event played out a like that in Portland. Unfortunately this upcoming pattern feels awfully similar to Feb 2021 in Portland, when a primarily snow forecast quickly turned into a disastrous ice event. Those 850 temps are going to mean everything. As was case in Dec 2008 and Feb 2021, models drastically over-accelerate the surface temp modification. Any area with Gorge influence will likely stay locked into cold for 2-4 days longer than models predict. happens every single time. 

In the Salem area we went rain/snow/sleet/ZR on 12/20/08. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Getting more flakes now and radar shows a precip shield edging in over me.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Even the timing of it is almost identical. I remember the snow starting up on Saturday late afternoon. 

The SLIGHTLY higher sun angles may be a big factor.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Even the timing of it is almost identical. I remember the snow starting up on Saturday late afternoon. 

26 years of global warming since then, though  

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The 12z GFS is a cruel joke down here. The arctic front doesn't really even make it to Olympia let alone PDX. There are plenty of other models that produce a decent outcome here but hard to ignore the GFS completely when it has been leading the way.

Hopefully the 12z Euro doesn't screw us completely. 

It doesn’t over come south of the border tbh. This only had it in the low 20’s because of heavy snow 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It looked like about a quarter of 06Z Euro members were bringing accumulating snow up to Sea-Tac.

But the GFS is in its own world with those 8"+ numbers. 

I would not root for GFS in this case, even in Seattle. Much better odds historically of a low coming in north of modeled in this scenario than it coming in south. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

26 years of global warming since then, though  

Maybe the NAO saves us and we remix it December 1968 style.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It doesn’t over come south of the border tbh. This only had it in the low 20’s because of heavy snow 

That’s absolutely brutal. Rubus gonna have to vacation south. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Dark times south of PDX 

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

I would not root for GFS in this case, even in Seattle. Much better odds historically of a low coming in north of modeled in this scenario than it coming in south. 

I agree...I don't expect it to be well-modeled at all until the arctic intrusion has already happened and it's within the 48 hour HRRR window. 

[SeanNyberg]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

ICON still keeps the Fri/Sat system south as well, similar to GEM and UKMET.

So once again we have the GFS blazing its own trail...especially if Euro does not agree.

They’ve all retreated slowly back to the gfs run after run. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Hopefully we get a bit more than 1998 here! I think we probably had a wintry mix for a lot of that event being right on the border

Yeah, just like 2/21 it just hung on by a thread here while the changeover line undulated right along the river. Given that the long wave features are still in flux, any surface analysis right now is pretty moot.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The 12z GFS is a cruel joke down here. The arctic front doesn't really even make it to Olympia let alone PDX. There are plenty of other models that produce a decent outcome here but hard to ignore the GFS completely when it has been leading the way.

Hopefully the 12z Euro doesn't screw us completely. 

Fwiw, the GEFS and control is much colder with surface temps than the operational 12z GFS.

[Deweydog]

We’ve lost the Nyberg.

[GHweatherChris]

Wow, things went from bad to worse......  classic 90's pull back, outstanding.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

They’ve all retreated slowly back to the gfs run after run. 

I think there has been a little compromise, but the other models have generally moved more than the GFS

[Timmy]

Tomorrow night looks interesting here. Wrf looks a lot more like 500’ snow levels than anything. But it will be close.  @BLI snowman @Deweydog any insights?

[Doinko]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think there has been a little compromise, but the other models have generally moved more than the GFS

Has the Euro ever shown such major cold for multiple runs in a row for such a major pullback? I know the GFS was all in in Jan 2020 but I'm not sure about the other models.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Timmy said:

Tomorrow night looks interesting here. Wrf looks a lot more like 500’ snow levels than anything. But it will be close.  @BLI snowman @Deweydog any insights?

All depends on precip intensity and where the low tracks. Places where the wind dies and the best precip dynamics are, directly to the north of the low, should be in the best position to go isothermal. 

[Requiem]

Morning models look good for PDX, pretty classic winter storm signature. GFS is toeing it pretty close but there's some room for positive adjustments 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Tomorrow night looks interesting here. Wrf looks a lot more like 500’ snow levels than anything. But it will be close.  @BLI snowman @Deweydog any insights?

Very marginal and precip rate dependent but it looks like someone above a couple hundred feet should get a few inches of concrete.

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The 12z GFS is a cruel joke down here. The arctic front doesn't really even make it to Olympia let alone PDX. There are plenty of other models that produce a decent outcome here but hard to ignore the GFS completely when it has been leading the way.

Hopefully the 12z Euro doesn't screw us completely. 

I have a general rule of thumb that says that <510 thickness into NE WA will lock in frozen precip for the metro area. I think the airmass modeled on the eastside will be enough for a winter storm here, if nothing else.  The offshore energy will have to take a hell of a track this weekend for us to avoid that scenario entirely. 

Edited January 8 by BLI snowman

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doinko said:

Has the Euro ever shown such major cold for multiple runs in a row for such a major pullback? I know the GFS was all in in Jan 2020 but I'm not sure about the other models.

I remember the Euro going pretty cold for December 2021 and 2022 as well. Maybe not as cold for as many runs as this event, though.

[westcoastexpat]

Snowing here in Vancouver 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

They’ve all retreated slowly back to the gfs run after run. 

In the mid range, yeah. Doesn't mean we'll necessarily see the same trend in the short term.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Has the Euro ever shown such major cold for multiple runs in a row for such a major pullback? I know the GFS was all in in Jan 2020 but I'm not sure about the other models.

The Euro has shown more of a propensity to jump onboard than it used to. It might be coincidental to some of the patterns it’s had to resolve over the last few years but it used to be more of a litmus test for continental air fortitude.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In the mid range, yeah. Doesn't mean we'll necessarily see the same trend in the short term.

The GFS/GEFS from a few days ago was firmly wrong. Most members had the arctic air failing to reach Seattle. 

The models have trended toward the Euro ensemble mean, with a ton of noise on the periphery. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Snowing here in Vancouver 

All snow right now IMBY but temperature is creeping up so it looks like soon it will be slushy rain.

[Phishy Wx]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Current similarities to 1998 are almost scary. Only big picture difference is the NAO.

that's a pretty big difference