January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[The Ms. Anthrop]

So took the dog out for a walk and stuck to the grass, which is still quite frozen. Water is just pooling up on the surface as it slooooowly thaws out. The sidewalk was slick as heck, and there is visible slush in the parking lot as well as patches of ice on the margins. It’s raining solidly.
 

Holding steady at 34 degrees, and we dropped right to freezing at 4am for an hour. I’m a block from Lake Washington, so I’m genuinely surprised how long this cold has stuck around for me.
 

What weather stations do folks use? I have a basic La Crosse station but am wanting to get something that gives me more than temps and humidity.

[KingstonWX]

Just now, MossMan said:

Ouch. Let kids have a little fun since it’s so rare to have a snow day. So dumb. 

Schools have gone off the deep end with that crap. My kids school is 2hrs late today and releasing 1hr early. What is even the point? Don't even get me started on their new rules for illness. Then, of course, they have the nerve to chastise parents when your kid misses school due to their illness rules, after they just made them miss 2 freakin years due to covid. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

wow it sure dont like the idea of snow here with that. I feel confident for a few here. Upper levels will start out cold enough here and the offshore flow will be deeper.

Raging east wind with that warm front tomorrow... but the cold air source is being scoured out today so the Seattle area ends up with temps in the mid to upper 30s.

Edited January 17 by TT-SEA

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I for sure thought Mossman would wake up with 4-6 inches of snow today. 

I could hear the gutters running when I went to bed around midnight, woke up at 4am and didn’t hear any gutter action so I got very excited and got up to do a deck check…The letdown was indescribable. 

[Skagit Weather]

Up to 1.5" out there now with continued heavy snow and a temperature of 32.8F. Definitely quite wet with probably a 7:1 or 5:1 ratio instead of the normal 10:1. Roughly 2 hours left of snowfall and HRRR gives me 2" more Kuchera. That's a good bet based on these rates. I've already surpassed the Euro forecast, but not quite at the 12" the GEM predicted.

[Tyler Mode]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Ouch. Let kids have a little fun since it’s so rare to have a snow day. So dumb. 

If I had kids they'd have the choice.  We lived for snow days growing up.  Having online learning on a day you can go out is super lame.  I can guarantee a lot of parents are thinking the same thing.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Eh, climo response to phase-7 (WPAC) MJO deteriorates substantially by that point. In tandem with recovering PV, smart odds are against any arctic air into the CONUS (IMO).

Climo response to phase-7 MJO Jan 21 & Jan 30, respectively:

We'll see.  It just seems like a strong wave in 7 almost always delivers here.

[The Ms. Anthrop]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Ouch. Let kids have a little fun since it’s so rare to have a snow day. So dumb. 

LOL that is some serious snark from the comms person. Time to cue up the Pink Floyd, man... we don't need no education...
 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Up to 1.5" out there now with continued heavy snow and a temperature of 32.8F. Definitely quite wet with probably a 7:1 or 5:1 ratio instead of the normal 10:1. Roughly 2 hours left of snowfall and HRRR gives me 2" more Kuchera. That's a good bet based on these rates. I've already surpassed the Euro forecast, but not quite at the 12" the GEM predicted.

How does the Hrrrrrrrr look for my area? Similar? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Raging east wind with that warm front tomorrow... but the cold air source is being scoured out today so the Seattle area ends up with temps in the mid to upper 30s.

Some of the meso models are showing 850 and 925 beow zero during heavy precip and that is a for sure snow profile here even with onshore flow sometimes.

[Everleigh]

At a very warm 43* here in Yelm with a nice rain.  Snow is almost all gone. Kids said "Eff that" to 20min classes today and stayed home. lol (Jr and Sr in HS) Love seeing the snow pics from those that are scoring today!! Keep em comin! 

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

If I had kids they'd have the choice.  We lived for snow days growing up.  Having online learning on a day you can go out is super lame.  I can guarantee a lot of parents are thinking the same thing.

As a teacher, I promise you, so are we. I've had many conversations with my coworkers about how dumb that is and how largely worthless a suddenly thrown together singular online day would be.

[Lynnwoodweather]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF also shows SEA back down to 34 or 35 by 4 p.m.  but there isn't much precip left by then.

Convergence zone signature! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Some of the meso models are showing 850 and 925 beow zero during heavy precip and that is a for sure snow profile here even with onshore flow sometimes.

FWIW... here is the ECMWF 925mb temps for early tomorrow afternoon as the precip is starting.

[FrozenBites]

Jan 30th - Feb 5th We will be back in action with cold. Let's see if I'm onto something or how much crow I can eat in 5 minutes.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I for sure thought Mossman would wake up with 4-6 inches of snow today. 

I have to admit seeing Whatcom County get hit like this today hurts a bit.  They are on such a roll up there.  No doubt it's Seattle's turn now.  However, when you consider we just got hit really good in Dec 2021, and did ok last winter it goes to show how great this decade has been so far.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, FrozenBites said:

Jan 30th - Feb 5th We will be back in action with cold. Let's see if I'm onto something or how much crow I can eat in 5 minutes.

Models are hinting at it.

[Tyler Mode]

Fun watching it snow in the lowlands, but at the same time weird to have it melting slowly at Longmire (for now).

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Lynnwoodweather said:

Convergence zone signature! 

King County has some potential when the wind shifts to NW a bit later on.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  It just seems like a strong wave in 7 almost always delivers here.

First half of winter and/or pre-SSW (absorptive vs reflective state) and I’d be with you.

But given we have neither of the above, and given the upcoming cycle of momentum deposition in tandem with strong niño…I mean it’s not *impossible*, but there’s no reason to explicitly forecast a cold outcome. No support for it, either statistically or dynamically.

[MossMan]

Snow globe!! Heavy snow!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have to admit seeing Whatcom County get hit like this today hurts a bit.  They are on such a roll up there.  No doubt it's Seattle's turn now.  However, when you consider we just got hit really good in Dec 2021, and did ok last winter it goes to show how great this decade has been so far.

If things would of lined up better we could of had better wide spread snow, so close!

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, FrozenBites said:

Jan 30th - Feb 5th We will be back in action with cold. Let's see if I'm onto something or how much crow I can eat in 5 minutes.

I’ll be in SoCal during that timeframe, so probably.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Snow globe!! Heavy snow!! 

Told ya!

[MikeInEverett]

In Shoreline for work today but based off cams looks like still rain at home and around Paine Field.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

As a teacher, I promise you, so are we. I've had many conversations with my coworkers about how dumb that is and how largely worthless a suddenly thrown together singular online day would be.

I totally agree.  Trying to teach a kid when they are excited about snow just adds to how dumb it is.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

First half of winter and/or pre-SSW (absorptive vs reflective state) and I’d be with you.

But given we have neither of the above, and given the upcoming cycle of momentum deposition in tandem with strong niño…I mean it’s not *impossible*, but there’s no reason to explicitly forecast a cold outcome. No support for it, either statistically or dynamically.

Very interesting points.

[KingstonWX]

Rain changing over to snow here now. Temp is at 34. 

[ibleedcokezero]

It looks like it’s trying to switch to snow here in Kingston

[Skagit Weather]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

How does the Hrrrrrrrr look for my area? Similar? 

Looks like you get 2-3" more.

Right now I'm seeing of the heaviest snow I've ever seen here. Probably 1.5-2" an hour. I can't even see across the street.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

As a teacher, I promise you, so are we. I've had many conversations with my coworkers about how dumb that is and how largely worthless a suddenly thrown together singular online day would be.

Yeah completely absurd. If I were a parent I’d pull my kids out of school so they can enjoy it. It’s one fucking day, it won’t alter your life course (save silly chaos theory stuff that is impossible to predict, lol).

[The Ms. Anthrop]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

As a teacher, I promise you, so are we. I've had many conversations with my coworkers about how dumb that is and how largely worthless a suddenly thrown together singular online day would be.

I left education this last June, and yeah, it's ridiculous. I don't know what your district is like as far as pacing freedom, but for us we couldn't pause for a day and teach about snow, or weather, or something that would relate to what was going on. Nope, we'd have to stick to the guide. Half my class would be missing and the other half physically present but mentally absent. It would not be hard to have some really excellent snow day curriculum on tap that would be great enrichment for those who can/want to take part virtually.

[FrozenBites]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If things would of lined up better we could of had better wide spread snow, so close!

As most winters in W Washington. One day we all are going to be clobbered. February sounds like a start.  

[Lynnwoodweather]

Changing to sleet in Lynnwood. it is bouncy

[MikeInEverett]

3 minutes ago, MikeInEverett said:

In Shoreline for work today but based off cams looks like still rain at home and around Paine Field.

But somehow we have very wet snow falling here in Shoreline. That doesn’t make sense

[KingstonWX]

Big heavy flakes now. I wonder if we can manage any stickage today. 

[snow_wizard]

Still 33 here.  Holding onto this low level cold could end up paying dividends when the mid levels plunge a bit later.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Snow globe!! Heavy snow!! 

I think you’ll get more then .5 inches euro had for you?

[Phil]

1 minute ago, FrozenBites said:

As most winters in W Washington. One day we all are going to be clobbered. February sounds like a start.  

February has been the big month since 2016. I suspect that’ll reverse, though given how long the January curse lasted, who knows?  

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looks like you get 2-3" more.

Right now I'm seeing of the heaviest snow I've ever seen here. Probably 1.5-2" an hour. I can't even see across the street.

Yeah I can barely see across I-5 now at work.