SpaceRace22 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 28 degrees with a solid half inch of ice coating everything now. Looks like some pretty heavy rain is about to move in, and I don't think we are going to thaw before then. Reeeeally happy we have underground power lines here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mtep Posted January 17 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 17 Dumpage! 12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The reason precip is so hard to predict with these is because The low develops at the last minute near Vancouver island. the phase north and low placement has been modeled for a couple days, that the short wave over BC would take over and a surface low would form over the Puget Sound, but looks like maybe the energy transferred further north than originally shown? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Change to snow imminent? Not that close to what euro had. Kind of matches NAM gfs and RGEm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Just now, Phishy Wx said: the phase north and low placement has been modeled for a couple days, that the short wave over BC would take over and a surface low would form over the Puget Sound, but looks like maybe the energy transferred further north than originally shown? I agree, It is looking very dynamic! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Wow... anyone want to watch live stream from Bellingham of dumping snow here is the link: https://www.barkleyvillage.com/web-cams I'll be heading there in about an hour for a PT appointment. First time taking the new (to me) Subaru in the snow. 3 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 ECMWF shows that colder air aloft immediately following the low... this is just enough to flip it to snow up there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 There will be surprises north of Seattle today. This reminds me of last year or year before, very close to the same with the shortwave. 5 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said: He said that this was going to be an utter non-event and ice would not be forming. He was very, very, wrong. This is just one page of school closures out of like 6 pages for this morning. Even if you stick to the Seattle metro area, 90% of the districts are running late or are closed from north (Shoreline, 2hrs late) to south (Renton, 2 hrs late) to east/west (Issaquah closed, Highline 2hrs late). While Seattle SD isn't running late (?) I took a look at their sub board and there are a metric ton of positions open so folks are not making it in. Clearly there was ice, and there was an impact city and county-wide from said ice. So yeah... Cliff Mass was very butt hurt on SM last night when folks called him out with actual on the ground data of ice, and didn't shift his "forecast". I do not understand that the hell that man's deal is. There's no doubt he's an incredibly intelligent and experienced professional, but his stubbornness and ability to occasionally disregard incredibly compelling evidence is odd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF shows that colder air aloft immediately following the low... this is just enough to flip it to snow up there. You can see how tricky this is today, even 20 miles south would make a big difference today. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: There will be surprises north of Seattle today. This reminds me of last year or year before, very close to the same with the shortwave. Very similar to the 12/20/22 system... just a little farther north. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Just now, SpaceRace22 said: I do not understand that the hell that mans deal is. There's no doubt he's an incredibly intelligence and experienced professional, but his stubbornness and ability to occasionally disregard incredibly compelling evidence is odd. The answer is simple. Pride! 2 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 More dog poo free ice pics. Also, the pond near the house is completely frozen solid now. Some kids were jumping on the ice trying to break it yesterday and they physically could not. Pretty impressive week this has been! 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Looks like a winter wonderland in northern Whatcom County today. I thought for sure there would be more snow in areas south of there today. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said: I do not understand that the hell that mans deal is. There's no doubt he's an incredibly intelligence and experienced professional, but his stubbornness and ability to occasionally disregard incredibly compelling evidence is odd. I think he REALLY likes to be the center of attention as the one voice that’s different but right, but it leads him to being different, crazy wrong, arrogant, and with an easily-bruised ego. And as he increasingly gets the reputation he earns, the persecution complex comes out. 3 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 I ended up with a nice coating of ice here. Probably about 0.2" Amazing how slick the roads get with just that much. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 11 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Alaska goes into the icebox at the end of the GEM Ugh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Loving all the snow pics. Gonna have to live vicariously today because it’s 40 with light rain here. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted January 17 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 17 I-5 is trying to slush up a bit now. I just got these pictures from the house. Better than a kick in the arse like it was looking to be. 15 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Alaska goes into the icebox at the end of the GEM No Bueno. 7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Change to snow imminent? Not that close to what euro had. Kind of matches NAM gfs and RGEm. Wouldn’t go that far, can’t yet know how prolonged/complete the changeover will be at the surface, let alone accumulation. Will need to speed up for GFS et al to verify. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Finally hit 33 degrees here. Definitely thawing out much slower than the forecast called for so far. Some dripping from the roofs now, but the melting is very slow. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 30.6˚F and dumping. Up to 8.7". 3 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 30.6˚F and dumping. Up to 8.7". 11-12 totals today? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: I-5 is trying to slush up a bit now. I just got these pictures from the house. Better than a kick in the arse like it was looking to be. ECMWF showed you getting .5 to an inch up there. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 >1” per hour snowfall rates ongoing… I am getting to the point where I am satisfied with this El Niño winter. That said, I hate the look and feel of half melted slop and mud that are associated with pna ridges here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 ECMWF also shows SEA back down to 34 or 35 by 4 p.m. but there isn't much precip left by then. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 No doubt something is trying to pop at the end of the month. Last night's graph cast was getting there at the end of the run as well. We need that MJO to stay strong into region 7. The models are very uncertain about that right now. A strong wave getting into 7 would probably make this work out. If it collapses in 6 it will probably fall short. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: 11-12 totals today? Base on model guidance there’s about two hours left of the heavy stuff and it’s been coming down at a little over an inch an hour. So my forecast of 8–10" may bust low! If it does, it will be my third winter in a row featuring a double-digit snowstorm. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 12Z ECMWF snow with the warm front tomorrow. @ShawniganLake is probably going to get a bunch more. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF showed you getting .5 to an inch up there. I would have preferred pretty much any other models totals that were shown for me lol 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Everett southward, the change in CC (and bright banding) occurs when beam height ~ 1,000ft up. Which I assume is the altitude of the changeover (though some mixing likely below that). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, MossMan said: I-5 is trying to slush up a bit now. I just got these pictures from the house. Better than a kick in the arse like it was looking to be. I thought you would get something. I was thinking more though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 30.6˚F and dumping. Up to 8.7". yeah we're picking up here now. 2.5" and heaviest is still coming in the afternoon. first time its been 20 degrees since the wee AM hours of last Thursday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 20 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Alaska goes into the icebox at the end of the GEM Tim can cancel his Hawaii trip in that case. Hawaii will be coming to Tim. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF snow with the warm front tomorrow. @ShawniganLake is probably going to get a bunch more. wow it sure dont like the idea of snow here with that. I feel confident for a few here. Upper levels will start out cold enough here and the offshore flow will be deeper. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 22 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Alaska goes into the icebox at the end of the GEM 1989 was actually an analog on last night's GFS run. That worked out real nice for us afterward. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: No doubt something is trying to pop at the end of the month. Last night's graph cast was getting there at the end of the run as well. We need that MJO to stay strong into region 7. The models are very uncertain about that right now. A strong wave getting into 7 would probably make this work out. If it collapses in 6 it will probably fall short. Eh, climo response to phase-7 (WPAC) MJO deteriorates substantially by late-Jan. In tandem with recovering PV, smart odds are against any arctic air into the CONUS (IMO). Climo response to phase-7 MJO Jan 21 & Jan 30, respectively: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I thought you would get something. I was thinking more though. I for sure thought Mossman would wake up with 4-6 inches of snow today. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Ouch. Let kids have a little fun since it’s so rare to have a snow day. So dumb. 5 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: wow it sure dont like the idea of snow here with that. I feel confident for a few here. Upper levels will start out cold enough here and the offshore flow will be deeper. No doubt the depth of the cold is very important. Last night it was very shallow. Amazingly I'm still holding at about 33 here. Paper thin layer of cold though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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