January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Though Phil does not consider 2019-20 a Nino, I do, and it had a -2.1 departure at SLE in February. 

I'm confused it is or it isn't.  It's just data. From little I know it was a NINO.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Though Phil does not consider 2019-20 a Nino, I do, and it had a -2.1 departure at SLE in February. 

Lol what? I’ve always considered it a weak niño.

Ironically, at the time you were arguing against that. Glad to see you’ve come around, though.  

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I had initially thought there was a chance at some degree of momentum loss come mid-Feb, but tropical forcing is crawling at a snails pace into the W-Hem/W-IO. There is no way to avoid the big PNA spike now. The current spike is transient, but there is a bigger one coming.

You can already see the precursor pattern building over Siberia/Eurasia by D5. And unlike prior cases, this one looks quite stable.

Still not seeing it at the end though. Though it does look progressive and would push a ridge right over the west. Realistically it’s hard to say either way, the height anomalies are so low, unless you have some bias.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1994-95 was a moderate Nino and had a major snow event in W. Oregon. Though the month as a whole totally torched. 

2003 and 2007 were Ninos and temps were near average at SLE in February. 

2005 was a weak Nino and had a -2.6 departure at SLE in February. 

[snow_wizard]

The 12z EPS is about 3 degrees colder for surface temps vs the 0z during the chilliest period.  Not bad at all.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some serious spectrum-level complaining on here... off the charts from the usual suspects.   Fun times.  

i like it when they disregard strong nino climatology the best

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Lol what? I’ve always considered it a weak niño.

Ironically, at the time you were arguing against that. Glad to see you’ve come around, though.  

Maybe we're both confused. I know we disagree on 2016-17. 

[Sandy rocks]

News Flash!!! The sun came out thirty minutes ago and it's partly sunny. We'll see if it lasts.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

i like it when they disregard strong nino climatology the best

I like it when they disregard model data.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm confused it is or it isn't.  It's just data. From little I know it was a NINO.

Andrew is smoking something special.  

I was making the case that entire fall/winter it was essentially a niño despite not meeting ONI criteria, and I was getting attacked left and right for that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Andrew is smoking something special.  

I was making the case that entire fall/winter it was essentially a niño despite not meeting ONI criteria, and I was getting attacked left and right for that.

I'm pretty sure I was not the one attacking you. If you can find a quote where I did I will own it. 

[TT-SEA]

Might have to find an excuse to be outside tomorrow and Tuesday... pretty rare stuff for January.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

i like it when they disregard strong nino climatology the best

The January cold wave was not Nino climatology. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Still not seeing it at the end though. Though it does look progressive and would push a ridge right over the west. Realistically it’s hard to say either way, the height anomalies are so low, unless you have some bias.

It’s evident even on that image.

Unlike the messy, complicated destructive interference regime back in January, this one is much more straightforward.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Might have to find an excuse to be outside tomorrow and Tuesday... pretty rare stuff for January.  

I will try and find any way possible not to feel that. Just preference though, just like you don't want to experience 43 and rain on may 15th. All we do is argue about personal preference on here  

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The January cold wave was not Nino climatology. 

But the monthly mean (temps & 500mb heights) will look very much like strong/super niño climatology.

There’s always variability at shorter ranges. But that is not the scale where ENSO correlations arise.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1994-95 was a moderate Nino and had a major snow event in W. Oregon. Though the month as a whole totally torched. 

2003 and 2007 were Ninos and temps were near average at SLE in February. 

2005 was a weak Nino and had a -2.6 departure at SLE in February. 

It is really weird.  All of the Nino Februarys you have mentioned that were either chilly or had something worthwhile down there were all warmish normal to flat out warm here.  Maybe something to do with Nino seasons doing better the further south you go?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

But the monthly mean (temps & 500mb heights) will look very much like strong niño climatology.

There’s always intraseasonal variability beneath that. But that is not the scale where ENSO correlations arise.

Reminds me of February 1995. One of our warmest on record with a big snow event and arctic blast in the middle. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The thing with me and warm winter weather west of the cascades is it normally comes with or after a bunch of rain so it will be major muggy and I hate that. I wouldn't mind it at all if it had been dry and we had a sunny warm dry day. Of course followed by a cold front and 34 degree rain and snow. 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

i like it when they disregard strong nino climatology the best

Who's disregarding it?  You're saying to throw in the towel on this winter when the models are showing well below normal temps coming.  You seem to think the strong Nino trumps everything else.  It will do what it wants to do.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The January cold wave was not Nino climatology. 

I'd argue that cold in January is more likely than cold in February in strong ninos but I'd like to see the stats

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1994-95 was a moderate Nino and had a major snow event in W. Oregon. Though the month as a whole totally torched. 

2003 and 2007 were Ninos and temps were near average at SLE in February. 

2005 was a weak Nino and had a -2.6 departure at SLE in February. 

But what about strong niños? Especially those with recovering PV second half of winter?

Doubt there will be many exceptions to the rule in that case.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The thing with me and warm winter weather west of the cascades is it normally comes with or after a bunch of rain so it will be major muggy and I hate that. I wouldn't mind it at all if it had been dry and we had a sunny warm dry day. Of course followed by a cold front and 34 degree rain and snow. 

That muggy feeling is pretty rare around here and a unique feeling so I typically enjoy the change.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Who's disregarding it?  You're saying to throw in the towel on this winter when the models are showing well below normal temps coming.  You seem to think the strong Nino trumps everything else.  It will do what it wants to do.

I said 'maybe some chilly interludes', did you miss that?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It is really weird.  All of the Nino Februarys you have mentioned that were either chilly or had something worthwhile down there were all warmish normal to flat out warm here.  Maybe something to do with Nino seasons doing better the further south you go?

The 1994-95 event was pretty much exclusively from just north of PDX to about Eugene, but it was a widespread W. Oregon snow event. We had about 6" in Silverton, parts of the PDX metro had close to a foot. The next day most of NW Oregon had sub-freezing highs and then valentine's day featured lows in the teens. Then we had a pineapple express. 

Also many of those months, like 2020 for instance were pretty dry. High temps were pretty close to normal, but the Willamette Valley did pretty well with radiational cooling and had cold lows. I think SLE had 19 sub-freezing lows in February 2020 and 18 in 2005. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty cool to have a mini rain forest behind my house, I can walk back there and find moss hanging 2 and 3 feet off the trees just like you see in the Olympic rain forest. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

But the monthly mean (temps & 500mb heights) will look very much like strong/super niño climatology.

There’s always variability at shorter ranges. But that is not the scale where ENSO correlations arise.

Funny thing is, by the time the cold arrived here, the 500mb progression was already returning to a much more ninoriffic look. The preceding pattern was far more anti-nino and lasted for about 5-6 days.

[Slushy Inch]

Some dogs in there. Solid chance of a sub 40 high.

[Phil]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

I'd argue that cold in January is more likely than cold in February in strong ninos but I'd like to see the stats

You are correct.

And it’s true the subseasonal evolution is belated 2-3 weeks this year versus canonical niño climo at analogous amplitudes. But the outcome isn’t all that different upon accounting for that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

But what about strong niños? Especially those with recovering PV second half of winter?

Doubt there will be many exceptions to the rule in that case.

1966 and 1973 were categorized as strong Ninos, at least on the list I'm looking at right now. They were below normal at SLE. 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The January cold wave was not Nino climatology. 

You've got that right.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Reminds me of February 1995. One of our warmest on record with a big snow event and arctic blast in the middle. 

That looks like a great event here. Probably ~10" of snow in a single storm followed by cold and sun.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

I said 'maybe some chilly interludes', did you miss that?

Might be a good idea to stick to posting oof-captioned screenshots from Twitter rather than trying long range forecasting  

[Hawksfan2008]

Lots of great outcomes. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Some dogs in there. Solid chance of a sub 40 high.

Pretty prolonged cold anoms there.  How is that possible?

[Phishy Wx]

Jesse must be having hotdogs for lunch?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I suck at forecasting clouds so I would like a forecast from yall for tommorow morning. Will there be clouds in the 3 sisters area of the cascades tomorrow that will obscure the views, or will it only be upper level clouds? If it's only upper level clouds, that'll give me the weather opportunity to make the snowmobile ride to the trailhead, and attempt south sister, assuming we don't get turned around by high Avalanche danger. Wouldn't want to hike 7 miles up in the dark, only to be disappointed by clouds once the sun comes up. 

I wish the weather models said cloud deck levels...

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Might be a good idea to stick to posting oof-captioned screenshots from Twitter rather than trying long range forecasting  

oof

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty prolonged cold anoms there.  How is that possible?

Idk. Member 39 is wild though.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You've got that right.

Ehhh... it was short lived and similar to 1972 and 1998 events.