February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Ken in Wood Village]

36 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

12z ECMWF and EPS are going to be the best runs yet, atleast I hope. Realistically I'm expecting them to be worse than their previous runs.

I think there is a lot of potential in the 12Z Euro today and it's not finished. Looks like there are a couple of polar lobbs (not sure if I spelled that correctly) lined up to come down from BC reinforcing the cold air

[FroYoBro]

It’s all over.

[MossMan]

Conflicting reports!

[Cascadia_Wx]

25 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Oh ya I know, I see it glingto cabin. For 4k feet it sure don't hold snow very well but it's not surrounded by mountains either. 

What’s up with the camera filter on the top pic. The sky almost looks purple.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I looked at this run. Definitely a significant step back on both troughs. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is impressive with the trough but there is just too much raging south wind on this run for much in the way of lowland snow.    Surface details are less than ideal without some offshore flow.  

[DeepFriedEgg]

Not impressed guys. This is pretty clearly a 1500'+ event at best. Just no cold air to work with. Crazy how warm NA has been this winter.

[DeepFriedEgg]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is impressive with the trough but there is just too much raging south wind on this run for much in the way of lowland snow.    Surface details are less than ideal without some offshore flow.  

Even with offshore flow this wouldn't cut it. At face value it's not even close.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Not impressed guys. This is pretty clearly a 1500'+ event at best. Just no cold air to work with. Crazy how warm NA has been this winter.

Even up here it's borderline for anything beyond a sloppy inch.

[MossMan]

Well good!! Bring the heat and lake days then!! 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Even with offshore flow this wouldn't cut it. At face value it's not even close.

Here is the wind loop from Sunday through Tuesday... we keep getting blasted by south and southwest wind.   Need trough to dig more and send a system south which would lead to easterly flow.  

[Ken in Wood Village]

I think there is a lot of potential with this pattern. I liked the end of the run as you can see what I circled in red that's if it verifies. If you look closely, it's painting a mix precipitation even over the ocean. **Update** I just noticed the low up in Alaska that looks like it's heading down to the PNW. If those two merge together, there could be a major event

I like to remind everyone, the models show what type of pattern we could be seeing in the future. Don't get caught up with the exact details until the event gets closer. We have a week to get more details on what will happen so enjoy the ride

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

This looks great for the peninsula and mountains 

[MossMan]

Just now, Ken in Wood Village said:

I think there is a lot of potential with this pattern. I liked the end of the run as you can see what I circled in red that's if it verifies. If you look closely, it's painting a mix precipitation even over the ocean. 

I like to remind everyone, the models show what type of pattern we could be seeing in the future. Don't get caught up with the exact details until the event gets closer. We have a week to get more details on what will happen so enjoy the ride

 

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This looks great for the peninsula and mountains 

Yep! And pretty colors over my house! 

[TT-SEA]

Step back on 12Z EPS with the first trough.  

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Step back on 12Z EPS with the first trough.  

I think you mean a step forward 
 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF... likely some terrain bleed late in the run.

[iFred]

PDX meetup March 1st

[Deweydog]

Six years ago RIGHT NOW Sudden Stratocaster Warmings were in the infancy of becoming VERY relevant. Down here, rain showers were a few hours from turning to steady SNOW with the wind shift.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was cleaning up pics on my phone and wanted to snow you a comparison with snow on Mt Si.    First pic was yesterday and second pic was the evening of January 12th.    It can look wintry once in awhile! 

That mountain looks like it's got some epic ski lines, younger me would have loved that. Now I'm too old for that s**t.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really disappointing runs today. Time to get back to tracking the ENSO CRASH.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF... likely some terrain bleed late in the run.

I do remember similar graphs being posted a week or more out from 6 years ago today!! 

[TT-SEA]

32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What’s up with the camera filter on the top pic. The sky almost looks purple.

What filter?   The sky looks blue to me... through windshield of course.

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I do remember similar graphs being posted a week or more out from 6 years ago today!! 

Oh for sure... could definitely trend deeper again.   Long way to go!  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Bring on the boating season! Winter's over!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is much deeper with second trough compared to 00Z run.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a very windy 45/39 spread yesterday. The wind was absolutely screaming all night the night before last. Gusts easily over 50mph. Lots of stuff knocked over on the back porch. It stayed very strong through much of yesterday. Otherwise mostly cloudy with chilly rain moving in in the afternoon.

Mostly cloudy, calmer and 44 currently, after a low of 40.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Amazing a mountain over 4,000' has absolutely no snow on it. 

The top usually does have snow and under the trees. You just can’t see it.

The top of the ridge running to tenriffe usually has 3-4 feet of snowpack going into late spring. 

As we have discussed before that southwest facing steep rock slope usually loses snow really fast when exposed to sun

[Cascadia_Wx]

Caught Fox 12’s Weather Podcast over at a friend’s house the other day. A lot of talk about the winter storm warning bust over Valentine’s. Mark was fired up about the NWS. There’s a lot that he’s definitely not wrong about, but he sure is becoming a curmudgeon in his old age. He even threw some shade toward weather geeks posting misleading pepto maps on forums. Pretty sure he was talking about us.

I forgot the guy’s name in the middle, but he seemed nicer, more forgiving of the NWS, and generally more snow friendly. 

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Caught Fox 12’s Weather Podcast over at a friend’s house the other day. A lot of talk about the winter storm warning bust over Valentine’s. Mark was fired up about the NWS. There’s a lot that he’s definitely not wrong about, but he sure is becoming a curmudgeon in his old age. He even threw some shade toward weather geeks posting misleading pepto maps on forums. Pretty sure he was talking about us.

I forgot the guy’s name in the middle, but he seemed nicer, more forgiving of the NWS, and generally more snow friendly. 

So you would rather forecasters be more snow friendly than correct? 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

7 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

So you would rather forecasters be more snow friendly than correct? 

Yes

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

So you would rather forecasters be more snow friendly than correct? 

No. Just an observation of the different personalities. The lady on the right never really said much, unfortunately.

One thing Mark said that really grinded my gears is that he was hoping the low snowpack in BC would mean a very early melt out this year, since he has a high elevation mountain biking trip planned near Kelowna for the July 4th weekend.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No. Just an observation of the different personalities. The lady on the right never really said much, unfortunately.

One thing Mark said that really grinded my gears is that he was hoping the low snowpack in BC would mean a very early melt out this year, since he has a high elevation mountain biking trip planned near Kelowna for the July 4th weekend.

Can you really blame him though? North cascades and BC upper elevations keep their snow for too long

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Caught Fox 12’s Weather Podcast over at a friend’s house the other day. A lot of talk about the winter storm warning bust over Valentine’s. Mark was fired up about the NWS. There’s a lot that he’s definitely not wrong about, but he sure is becoming a curmudgeon in his old age. He even threw some shade toward weather geeks posting misleading pepto maps on forums. Pretty sure he was talking about us.

I forgot the guy’s name in the middle, but he seemed nicer, more forgiving of the NWS, and generally more snow friendly. 

Couldn’t have straightened that lampshade prior to taking the snap?

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Can you really blame him though? North cascades and BC upper elevations keep their snow for too long

Too long based on what? What an insanely ignorant comment. Although you’re probably just trolling and I’m giving you the reaction you’re wanting.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Couldn’t have straightened that lampshade prior to taking the snap?

I think I likely have some form of OCD so that bothered me too. Although I don’t make a habit of adjusting furniture in other people’s homes just for presentable weather forum snapz.

[snow_wizard]

Some serious threats lurking out there.  It's also noteworthy the EPS mean for low temps in early March for SEA is in the low 30s.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No. Just an observation of the different personalities. The lady on the right never really said much, unfortunately.

One thing Mark said that really grinded my gears is that he was hoping the low snowpack in BC would mean a very early melt out this year, since he has a high elevation mountain biking trip planned near Kelowna for the July 4th weekend.

Wow what a p.o.s. fukk him.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Can you really blame him though? North cascades and BC upper elevations keep their snow for too long

Too long? Wtf are you talking about. Call nature 1-800 line and complain.

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Caught Fox 12’s Weather Podcast over at a friend’s house the other day. A lot of talk about the winter storm warning bust over Valentine’s. Mark was fired up about the NWS. There’s a lot that he’s definitely not wrong about, but he sure is becoming a curmudgeon in his old age. He even threw some shade toward weather geeks posting misleading pepto maps on forums. Pretty sure he was talking about us.

I forgot the guy’s name in the middle, but he seemed nicer, more forgiving of the NWS, and generally more snow friendly. 

That NWS call was dubious.  The models were never showing the mid levels being favorable.  I thought the comparisons to 2017 were pretty crazy actually.