February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Seattle NWS says no lowland accumulation this weekend. maybe 1 inch norther Olympic Pen through friday. HAHAHAHAHA wow ok.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

HRDPS and HRRR are the same way. Terrain bleed is an artifact of low resolution. But this winter at least NAM has been king up here. HRDPS was calling for 2-4". Nobody near sea level got that much until you got out to Abbotsford.

HRRR is way more bullish for the 500-1000' range than the HRDPS for tonight. HRRR has me in the 2-3" range

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Seattle NWS says no lowland accumulation this weekend. maybe 1 inch norther Olympic Pen through friday. HAHAHAHAHA wow ok.

I mean, they are probably right. Temps are marginal at best. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Seattle NWS says no lowland accumulation this weekend. maybe 1 inch norther Olympic Pen through friday. HAHAHAHAHA wow ok.

I tend to agree that there will be no widespread accumulations below 500'. I think some areas above 500' are likely to get accumulations on grassy surfaces. I do think some lucky spot below 500' will see at least some snowflakes, but given the showery nature of the precipitation, it's a quick coating and melt within an hour or two situation. And certainly no snow below 1000' between the hours of 10 am and 5 pm. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I mean, they are probably right. Temps are marginal at best. 

The lowlands cover a large area and Temps are not that marginal at night. 31 32 is not marginal for snow. People always get caught up in the south flow crap, isn't going to matter this time.  This is by far the best chance for widespread snow this season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s funny to me how the Portland NWS was super bullish on the Monday system, forecasting 6-12” above 1000’, which didn’t come close to verifying. Now they are going for 4-10” above 1500’ with a system that has way more potential. I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad forecast, but the other one was obviously going to bust on the low end. 

[Cold Snap]

Weather.com says “watching a potential winter storm” for each time period tonight through Saturday night despite temps being pretty marginal especially during the day. Interesting.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I tend to agree that there will be no widespread accumulations below 500'. I think some areas above 500' are likely to get accumulations on grassy surfaces. I do think some lucky spot below 500' will see at least some snowflakes, but given the showery nature of the precipitation, it's a quick coating and melt within an hour or two situation. And certainly no snow below 1000' between the hours of 10 am and 5 pm. 

Sorry i do not agree at all. We will just leave it at that because no one knows anyway.  Everyone said it was to warm the other day and Everett got 4 inches right on the warm pavement. A bunch of people will be surprised in my opinion.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

KEZI and KVAL still going with 1,500 ft snow levels. Gonna be real interesting to see if it changes over to snow at some point overnight. Precip looks to be very heavy.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Sorry i do not agree at all. We will just leave it at that because no one knows anyway.  Everyone said it was to warm the other day and Everett got 4 inches right on the warm pavement. A bunch of people will be surprised in my opinion.

I never doubted c-zone snow.   Of course c-zones are totally different than southerly flow and are really effective at lowering snow levels.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

The equinox STORM was deceptively benign looking in the big picture.

The absolutely bonkers ridge in the Midwest that month probably gave us an assist in stalling those fronts out so perfectly.

edit: I see Andrew and I share a brain!

Edited February 29 by BLI snowman

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Got everything gassed up and read to go. Hoping the power stays on for this storm. Saturday will be one of the rare days you can snowmobile on the public streets to get around. Took my friends sled to my buddy's bar in Dec 2022 and then shredded all the meadows back to my house with a few other people. Passing cars stuck on highway 50 was fun 

Enjoy the storm, and keep us updated with pics and videos! (Assuming you keep your electricity )

[DareDuck]

Fun day at Bachelor before the storm. Lots of untracked snow and some nice wind blown patches of snow. Hope to get up there the next two days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cascade snow pack in Oregon is around 90% of normal now. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

If only it weren't in March it might be believable.

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cascade snow pack in Oregon is around 90% of normal now. 

Sounds catastrophic.   I am sure it will get much worse over the next week.   

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF still shows a snow event for King County late Friday night into Saturday morning.

[the_convergence_zone]

Just saw a post from an Olympic NP scientist that their snow survey at Deer Park was the 3rd lowest in 76 years, ahead of only 2005 and 2015. Just 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

Just saw a post from an Olympic NP scientist that their snow survey at Deer Park was the 3rd lowest in 76 years, ahead of only 2005 and 2015. Just 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent. 

Yeah... suspect there is going to be quite a divide between WA and OR mountains by next week.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... suspect there is going to be quite a divide between WA and OR mountains by next week.

Typical +ENSO pattern for the most part, except the areas that are doing bad are doing really bad. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF still shows a snow event for King County late Friday night into Saturday morning.

24 hour Pepto for much of the Oregon cascades. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Now that is a lot of cold air behind that cold front 🌨

[SnowWillarrive]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF still shows a snow event for King County late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Nice to have Euro on our side despite its fallen nature. 

[Front Ranger]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cascade snow pack in Oregon is around 90% of normal now. 

In a week it will be at levels no one could have dreamed of for March in a Nino.

[DeepFriedEgg]

33 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The absolutely bonkers ridge in the Midwest that month probably gave us an assist in stalling those fronts out so perfectly.

edit: I see Andrew and I share a brain!

Lots of 80s into Michigan and Wisconsin with that ridge if I recall.

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Typical +ENSO pattern for the most part, except the areas that are doing bad are doing really bad. 

Eh, up until now CA has done worse than normal for a major Nino and OR has done better than normal.

In a couple weeks, this might actually end up as a pretty decent season overall for the west coast mountains. Definitely could be a lot worse.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Lots of +15s for many locations in the Midwest for March 2012.

Peaks (with lows in upper 50s and low 60s):

• 87 in Chicago
• 80 in Minneapolis (+36F) 
• 86 in Detroit
• 83 in Madison (+34F) 

 

Btw Madison had its first February 70 burger yesterday (some places just south got to 75F! ). Then proceeded to get down to 11F this morning with a high of 27F.

[MossMan]

So what time does it start snowing again???

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So what time does it start snowing again???

HRRR says 6 hrs for me

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anybody got the full 18z euro snow maps?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

HRRR says 6 hrs for me

Looks like between 3-5 am here. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the cold air has reached the southern half of Vancouver Island. 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Anybody got the full 18z euro snow maps?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So what time does it start snowing again???

In about 13 hours here!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

It’s still 43 degrees tho, need that front to be significant 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Not terrible. I think the euro is underestimating the post frontal shower activity. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not terrible. I think the euro is underestimating the post frontal shower activity. 

Looks amazing

[umadbro]

[DeepFriedEgg]

Mark says conversational snow is possible.

[bainbridgekid]

31 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like the cold air has reached the southern half of Vancouver Island. 

Still mostly low to mid 40's halfway up Vancouver Island though. Cold front will be pretty slow to move in this evening since the axis of the trough isn't sliding East hardly at all. Close to an anafront setup.