March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

[Clinton]

It's looking more and more likely that a strong storm will bring a threat of severe weather along with heavy rain and potentially a Winter side depending on the amount of phasing that occurs.  Currently the GFS has the upper level low closing off over NE Iowa and the Euro is more progressive both solutions bring beneficial rains to the center of the nation where moisture is needed badly.  Lets discuss.

[Tom]

Easter Sunday is looking wet and cold around here which is NOT a common theme, in fact, the last time it rain and the temp held in the 60's was wayy back in 1999 (4/4/99).  Ever since I've been coming out here, I remember enjoying Easter SUN with sunny skies and warm temps.  Not gonna happen this year.  I'm ok with, bc I'll be baking a Turkey and some Lamb.  

0z Euro has some training storms across the I-80 corridor....this will be a common theme heading into APR/MAY, eventually lifting farther north later in Spring then Summer months.  Troughs are going to be plentiful and this will be a signature storm every 45 days or so.

[Timmy Supercell]

More severe wx around April Fool's! Just like last year. 

I feel like this Spring is bringing more frequent chances of it. 

[Clinton]

GFS and Euro still along ways apart.  GFS showing a very wet and phased storm on it's most recent run.

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like I'm sitting out of this one. Have fun, people down south.

[Iceresistance]

I saw this from CSU

[Black Hole]

12 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I saw this from CSU

Here is the CIPS analogs, which are similar to the SPC. 

 

At least for my area, it looks like mostly long straight hodographs, which will favor splitting storms. Lapse rates are excellent and the temperatures aloft are cool so large hail is probably the biggest hazard. It looks like an initial discrete supercell phase near or just east of here, following by a transition to QLCS stuff. Should be a potentially fun event at least. 

 

[bud2380]

GFS and Euro are way apart still. Since the Euro is much worse here, I'm assuming it will be more correct than the GFS.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

5 hours ago, bud2380 said:

GFS and Euro are way apart still. Since the Euro is much worse here, I'm assuming it will be more correct than the GFS.

 

 

The GFS is on its own.  The Euro, GDPS, and ICON are all south and weaker.  Once again, I'm hoping we can squeeze a half inch out of this system.  It looks dry for a while after this.

[Clinton]

The NAM isn't in reliable range yet but appears to be in line and phase like the GFS.

[Clinton]

Most models are showing some phasing between the northern and southern streams but don't agree on the track of the low.  The Euro remains the most progressive and the GFS is the furthest north and would produce some severe weather in my area.  Regardless all models are showing some beneficial rainfall for mby.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Most models are showing some phasing between the northern and southern streams but don't agree on the track of the low.  The Euro remains the most progressive and the GFS is the furthest north and would produce some severe weather in my area.  Regardless all models are showing some beneficial rainfall for mby.

This setup looks to be golden for your area and most of the MW/OHV.... @OttumwaSnomow should do real good...this is the epitome of the IA/MO warm front scenario at play which he discusses on here.  Good luck bud!

[Hawkeye]

As expected, the GFS just completely caved to the south and less-amped models.  Rats!

[Iceresistance]

West trend on the GEFS

[Clinton]

The SPC shifted the severe threat a little to the SE in my area tomorrow however Reed Timmer seems to think that eastern Kansas and western MO are right in the thick of things.  The best news is that 1 to 3 inches of rain seems likely for my area

Short-range models are showing a number of supercells capable of all hazards developing from the nose of the low-level jet and warm frontal zone near KC into northern MO and off the dry line in central/eastern Oklahoma. The models are trending a bit more significant with this severe weather event.

The severe threat shifts east on Tuesday with another enhanced risk.

[Timmy Supercell]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The SPC shifted the severe threat a little to the SE in my area tomorrow however Reed Timmer seems to think that eastern Kansas and western MO are right in the thick of things.  The best news is that 1 to 3 inches of rain seems likely for my area

Short-range models are showing a number of supercells capable of all hazards developing from the nose of the low-level jet and warm frontal zone near KC into northern MO and off the dry line in central/eastern Oklahoma. The models are trending a bit more significant with this severe weather event.

The severe threat shifts east on Tuesday with another enhanced risk.

2024, year of the upgrades!! Even the outlooks today/tomorrow are somewhat expanded.

[Tom]

Currently up in Flagstaff...

 

Big Bear in So Cal is doing real good...with more on the way today into tomorrow...

[Hoosier]

The snow aspect of this is getting slightly interesting.  Some energy will be diving in from Canada, which looks like it will cause it to slow down and perhaps even retrograde a bit in the Lakes.  Obviously take the clown maps with a grain of salt at this point, but if you're in the Lakes and even back to Chicago and you thought that we were done with snow, think again.

[Hawkeye]

Models are all over with regard to rain totals for my area... anything from 0.2" to 1.2".  Given the setup, with a lot of convection to the south, I'd lean toward the low end of the range.

[Hoosier]

Granted this is 10:1 so have to cut it down by a decent amount, but still not the most welcome sight after all the warm spells we've had.

[Money]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Granted this is 10:1 so have to cut it down by a decent amount, but still not the most welcome sight after all the warm spells we've had.

I kind of gave up on the snow yesterday and now looking at 18z all kuchera outputs showing up to a foot of snow lol 

[Money]

Green Bay AFD

The main timeframe of concern with this system however, is
Tuesday night through Wednesday. A strong secondary shortwave
will dig into the Upper Plains and western Great Lakes, which may
phase with the current surface low and lead to some
intensification of this system. The first and higher confidence
concern with this system will be wind gusts. Soundings bring
between 40 to 50 knot winds to 850, with fairly favorable
conditions to mix to the surface by Wednesday afternoon. This
would make for widespread gusts around 30 to 40 mph gusts over
land and possibly higher over marine. The second concern would be
a potential increase in precipitation, as the system possibly
retrogrades and brings the higher qpf and dynamics back to the
region. In the worst case, this would support significant
snowfall along the Lake Michigan shoreline and downstream of the
Bay of Green Bay. Delta-T values aren`t that impressive by
themselves (6-10 C or so) but could certainly enhance any
precipitation given the dynamics in this system. This would be the
worst case and only the GFS has this solution for now, so the
current forecast calls for lesser amounts of snow for the time
being. It bears stressing however, that given the winds during
this time period, any snow will cause travel impacts due to low
visibility from blowing and drifting.

[Clinton]

18z Euro beefed up rainfall amounts for mby also looks like most of the sever weather will be just to my SE.

[Money]

NAM/3K NAM showing 12+ in many areas

[Money]

NAM snowfall (still snowing on 3K) 

[Hoosier]

What I would probably do at this point is take some kind of a blend between the Kuchera maps and the snow depth maps.  Maybe like 70% Kuchera and 30% snow depth.  The reason being that the depth maps will tend to be flawed in situations like this with decent rates and marginal temps (depth maps will tend to underestimate).  

[Black Hole]

No big changes on tomorrow evening. Dry line storms appear likely with large hail being the primary threat. My best guess on timing is 6 to 9 PM. We will see! 

[Money]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What I would probably do at this point is take some kind of a blend between the Kuchera maps and the snow depth maps.  Maybe like 70% Kuchera and 30% snow depth.  The reason being that the depth maps will tend to be flawed in situations like this with decent rates and marginal temps (depth maps will tend to underestimate).  

Agreed. It’s crazy looking at 10:1 maps and seeing almost 2 feet in some areas lol 

[OttumwaSnomow]

On 3/30/2024 at 9:06 AM, Tom said:

This setup looks to be golden for your area and most of the MW/OHV.... @OttumwaSnomow should do real good...this is the epitome of the IA/MO warm front scenario at play which he discusses on here.  Good luck bud!

Great call @Tom! Nothing like a wobbling warm front here!!! I just got raked best gully  washer since June or longer! 1.32" and still not over! 2 rounds of pea size hail! FINALLY  SOME RUN OFF FOR PONDS!

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I received about 0.32" this evening.

[Hawkeye]

The models are trending toward a more nw low track.  A few models even get my area into the defo zone and drop 1+" of precip.  I need Monday's convection to not push all of this farther southeast.

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Great call @Tom! Nothing like a wobbling warm front here!!! I just got raked best gully  washer since June or longer! 1.32" and still not over! 2 rounds of pea size hail! FINALLY  SOME RUN OFF FOR PONDS!

 

 

That's what I'm hoping for here this evening.  Most ponds are only half full or less and the streams are dry or stagnate. 

[Clinton]

The SPC has shifted the enhanced risk NW back over my area today.  3km NAM and HRRR both showing supercells in my area around 5 pm. I wouldn't be surprised if there's not an upgrade to a moderate risk from mby back into central Oklahoma later today.

The GFS did a pretty good job showing this system phasing with the northern stream as it lifts toward the Lakes this could turn into a nice spring snowstorm for Ill, Wisc, and Mich.  

 

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the
   southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a
   small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail, damaging
   winds, and tornadoes (some strong) are possible. The severe threat
   will peak this afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the
   greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the
   evening/overnight period.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large, positively tilted upper-level trough will shift east from
   the Southwest to the central Plains today. A mid-level shortwave
   trough, currently rounding the base of the large scale trough, will
   advance quickly northeast through the day today within a strong
   mid-level jet. This strong flow will overspread a broad, very moist
   warm sector and lead to severe weather across a large portion of the
   Southern Plains into the Midwest.

   A surface low is present across eastern Colorado this morning with a
   stationary front extending eastward across Kansas and Missouri and
   into the Ohio Valley. This surface low will drift slowly east
   through the day and the front is expected to lift north across
   Missouri as a warm front during the afternoon. 

   ...North Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and
   the Ozarks...
   Mid 60s dewpoints are expected across much of the warm sector east
   of the dryline by mid-day today with temperatures warming into the
   70s to low 80s. Moderate to strong instability is expected to
   develop by the time ascent associated with the approaching trough
   overspreads the dryline. Once this occurs, expect rapid storm
   development along the dryline from southern Kansas to north Texas.
   Very strong shear, and mostly straight hodographs will support
   splitting supercells initially capable of large to potentially giant
   hail across a broad region from southwest Missouri to north Texas.
   Storm evolution off the dryline is still somewhat uncertain. Some
   guidance depicts more discrete development off the dryline and the
   potential for multiple rounds of supercells, while other CAM
   guidance waits until closer to 00Z to convect and leads to upscale
   growth and significant storm interaction within the first few hours.
   This evolution will have a significant impact on the longevity of
   the giant hail threat, but even with a messy storm mode, very large
   hail will remain a threat.

   Low-level shear is expected to be very weak for much of the day,
   which will limit the tornado threat. However, by the evening, the
   low-level jet is expected to strengthen with the ejecting wave and
   low-level shear will improve. The most favorable hodographs are
   expected across northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and
   southwest/central Missouri in a region where mature supercells will
   likely be ongoing. Therefore, a more favorable period for tornadoes
   and potentially strong tornadoes may exist from 23-03Z as the
   low-level shear improves.  

   ...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois...
   At least isolated supercells are expected to develop along the warm
   front from northern Missouri into central Illinois this afternoon
   and evening. Strong instability and very strong shear will support
   large to very large hail. In addition, storm motion is expected to
   be parallel to the surface front. Therefore, any supercells which
   can latch onto the warm front will have a higher tornado threat.
   However, more isolated storm coverage and uncertainty regarding
   storm evolution preclude higher tornado probabilities in this
   region. 

   Later in the evening and into the overnight hours, storms from the
   west will move into the region with a threat for large hail, a few
   tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. 

   ...Ohio River Vicinity...
   Supercells from Illinois may continue east along the warm front into
   the evening across southern Indiana and potentially southern Ohio.
   Additional storms may also develop along this frontal zone with a
   primary threat of large hail. Weaker instability/shear should limit
   the overall threat from these storms compared to farther west.
   However, moderate instability and strong shear will support a threat
   for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. 

   Overnight, a cluster of storms is expected to approach from the
   west. The overnight environment will continue to support a severe
   threat with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear in excess of 50
   knots. There is still considerable uncertainty how this cluster will
   evolve. A cluster of supercells would pose a threat for all severe
   weather hazards, while a more organized MCS may support a greater
   severe wind and QLCS tornado threat. 

   ...Central Texas...
   Strong instability is expected to develop ahead of a dryline across
   central Texas this afternoon. Confluence along the dryline and weak
   height falls should provide ample support for isolated to scattered
   storm development. Any storms which develop will be capable of very
   large to giant hail, given very strong instability and shear an
   expected supercellular storm mode.

 

 

[Money]

GFS/Euro/NAM all further NW with the low and defo band. Very narrow band of heavy snow but cut these totals in half on Kuchera and that’s still 6-8 inch storm for April 

[Hawkeye]

06z Euro.... a bit more nw

[OttumwaSnomow]

1.56"

My heaviest rain only day since September  2022.  Was pea sized hail twice. My pond jumped up 2 feet!

[Tom]

9 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Great call @Tom! Nothing like a wobbling warm front here!!! I just got raked best gully  washer since June or longer! 1.32" and still not over! 2 rounds of pea size hail! FINALLY  SOME RUN OFF FOR PONDS!

 

 

Boom!  Fantastic...I see those cells produce some very large hail that tracked just S of your area into C IL...

[Tom]

It was a record snow day for the Flagstaff area yesterday...not only that, but this brings the season total up to 103.1" with more to come today and yet another trough this coming weekend!  This is the 1st time in decades that the FLG area has received back to back 100"+ seasons.  As you can see below, last year was a bountiful 150"+ season as most of it fell in FEB/MAR, iirc.  

 

[Tom]

Can't tell you how much this means to me to be able to track ULL's through the PHX Valley.  This has to be the #3 or #4  ULL this season that tracked right overhead.  Nature has been awesome for the SW region.

 

[Money]

GFS kuchera is insane. Even half of that is 10+ inches of snow here. 10:1 shows nearly 2 1/2 feet