May 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Timmy Supercell]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Monday!  Anyone wanna head up to the Grand Canyon???  While its a nice and refreshing 51F this morning in MBY, it ain't so warm up in the high country.  Strong late Spring cold front surely dipping temps up north.

 

It's been a hellova active Spring so far and April ranked #2 in TOR reports for the nation...

 

I must not have ever totally grasped April 2011 doing 757 tornadoes. That's crazy. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 69/50 there was no rainfall. The highest wind speed was 18 MPH out of the E. The sun was out 68% of the time. For today the average H/L is 67/45 the record high of 89 was set in 1965 the record low of 25 was set in 1974 the most rainfall of 1.70” fell in 1932. Last year the H/L was 77/53 and there was 0.41” of rainfall.

The overnight low here in MBY was 52 and the current temperature is 55 with cloudy skies.

[chescowxman]

Only made it down to 59 degrees here in EN. Today should be the best weather day of the week with sun and temps reaching the mid to upper 70's. Rain chances return by late tonight. Chester County area records for today: High 99 degrees at Phoenixville (1930) / Low 28 at Coatesville (1974) / Rain 2.74" Coatesville (1908)

[Tom]

I had the windows open last night and the cool refreshing air was a bit on the chillier side, but I'm not going to complain as I slept pretty good.  The next few days are bonus BN days before the HEAT is turned on for Mother's Day weekend.

[Timmy Supercell]

I already miss the crisp 45-50 degree mornings. I hope we can pull off a few more in May before summer kicks the front door in. lol

[westMJim]

Getting moderately dark to the SW at this time the current temperature here is now at 70.  There is some lightning with this line but not much.

[chescowxman]

With the summer season quickly approaching  and the fact I now have access to much more station data then in the past. I went back to the complete Chester County PA data set of 26 stations with some having data back to the 1890's. I wanted to see if the number of hot days as defined by 90 degrees is increasing or decreasing here in Chester County?? I separated the stations by their elevation above sea level as we know with increasing elevation there are far less days that surpass 90 degrees. Of the 26 stations in the data the majority (17) stations are sited below 500 ft above sea level (ASL) While only 9 stations are sited at above 500 ft ASL. Going forward  with the data here in the 2020's we will still have the majority of stations (11) that are located at lower elevations while 7 of the current stations are in the relatively higher spots.
The data which is analyzed by average number of 90 degree days by decade is quite clear that the number of 90 plus days is decreasing at all elevations. In fact the 2020's to date are trending as the 2nd least 90+ days at the lower spots and at the lowest level in the higher spots. Can you imagine back when we really had hot summers like in the 1930's through 1950's how tough it must have been without air conditioning??

[Clinton]

Looking like the wet pattern will likely continue for many after a brief lull later this week.  A break from the severe weather will be appreciated.

Rainfall the last 30 days.

 

[chescowxman]

0.22" of rain this AM from the thunderstorm...briefly lost power. Should see sun returning today and our warmest day for at least the next couple weeks as temps make a run at the 80's today. By contrast on Friday we will struggle to escape the 50's for high temps.

Chester County records for today: High 98 degrees at Phoenixville (1930) / Low 29 degrees at both West Chester and Morgantown (1974) / Rain 2.90" Coatesville 2W (1992)

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 69/50 there was 0.28” of rainfall. The highest wind gust was 39 MPH out of the NW. There was 23% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 67/46 the record high of 89 was in 1926 and the record low of 27 was in 1976. Last year the H/L was 31/51 and there was 0.10” of rain.

Here in MBY I had 0.34” of rainfall yesterday. The overnight low here in my yard was 49 and at this time with clear skies it is 52.

[Hawkeye]

On 5/2/2024 at 11:35 PM, OttumwaSnomow said:

 

What a day! What a past 33 days!

Today 3.10" (ambient)

Since March 31st over 11 inches!

Since Dec 1st over 20 inches.

Pond now inches  from overflowing, first time since late 2020!

Some minor flooding today first  time in years! SW wapello  county had a report of 6.5" just today!

Todays drought  monitor  still had mby in "abnormally  dry"  which will be gone next week. Its honestly  as wet now as I have seen since maybe sept 2020. Looking at May forecast  a 2010  deluge isnt out of the question.   Snodgrass referred  to 2010 as a analog year? Seeing so many unusual  things not seen for years! Like my basement  leaking!

Meanwhile, only a few counties north of you we've only received average rainfall since April 1st.

[Tom]

It is May 8th and my keen eye has found a Blitz Warning for parts of the N Rockies in MT...

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
539 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

MTZ317-090000-
/O.CON.KTFX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240509T0600Z/
Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-
Including the following locations: Kings Hill Pass, Neihart, and
Monarch
539 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations between
  7 and 15 inches in the mountains, with another 3 to 7 inches on
  mountain passes and foothills. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Little Belt and Highwood Mountains.

* WHEN...Until midnight MDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible and tire
  chains may be required for some vehicles. Those in the backcountry
  should ensure they have appropriate knowledge and gear and may
  want to consider alternate plans. Widespread blowing snow will
  significantly reduce visibility. Strong winds could cause
  extensive damage to trees and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.

To see a graphical representation of the degree of stress on young
livestock please visit our webpage and select Local Programs then
Cold Air Advisory for Newborn Livestock.

 

[chescowxman]

So I have updated the average number of 90 degree days to include the Philadelphia International Airport and overlaid that analysis over the Chester County data shared yesterday. You can clearly see the impact of the urban heat island (UHI) on the official Philadelphia climate site (the red line is the rapid heat growth). While 90 degrees are declining in Chester County they are rapidly increasing in frequency at the airport. So far in the 2020's PHL is averaging more than 3 weeks of additional 90+ days than here in Chester County.

In 1940 when weather observations started at the airport it's footprint was only around 300 acres. Since 1940 the PHL Airport has expanded to over 2,600 acres. That is a staggering 2,078% growth. The significant impact to the official Philadelphia climate data due to this rapid expansion is clearly illustrated below.

Especially starting in 1970 when we began to see huge increases in the addition of asphalt, concrete and taxi ways. In 1970 alone the airport added 64% more gates and buildings. Just 2 years later in 1972 runways were expanded to handle 747's. Then 4 new terminals were added in 1977 and parking spaces were increased from 5k to 20k. Rapid increase in asphalt continued in 2002 with an additional 8 miles of pavement added to the site. In 2005 runways were increased and as of today there is now 33,000 feet of asphalt runway at the airport. Next time you see the reporting of 90 degree days on TV.....keep in mind where those figures are coming from - it is not where people live.

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, chescowxman said:

So I have updated the average number of 90 degree days to include the Philadelphia International Airport and overlaid that analysis over the Chester County data shared yesterday. You can clearly see the impact of the urban heat island (UHI) on the official Philadelphia climate site (the red line is the rapid heat growth). While 90 degrees are declining in Chester County they are rapidly increasing in frequency at the airport. So far in the 2020's PHL is averaging more than 3 weeks of additional 90+ days than here in Chester County.

In 1940 when weather observations started at the airport it's footprint was only around 300 acres. Since 1940 the PHL Airport has expanded to over 2,600 acres. That is a staggering 2,078% growth. The significant impact to the official Philadelphia climate data due to this rapid expansion is clearly illustrated below.

Especially starting in 1970 when we began to see huge increases in the addition of asphalt, concrete and taxi ways. In 1970 alone the airport added 64% more gates and buildings. Just 2 years later in 1972 runways were expanded to handle 747's. Then 4 new terminals were added in 1977 and parking spaces were increased from 5k to 20k. Rapid increase in asphalt continued in 2002 with an additional 8 miles of pavement added to the site. In 2005 runways were increased and as of today there is now 33,000 feet of asphalt runway at the airport. Next time you see the reporting of 90 degree days on TV.....keep in mind where those figures are coming from - it is not where people live.

It's almost like Humans can change climate on a small scale and large scale.  Crazy.  Thanks for confirming the impact humans have on climate.  

[westMJim]

On this date in 1923: A very late-season winter storm dropped up to a foot of snow across Lower Michigan. Records were set for May snowfall at many places with Saginaw and Bay City having around a foot, Lansing having11.5 inches,  Grand Rapids with 5.5 inches, and Detroit with 6 inches. Widespread damage was  reported with trees and power lines snapping under the heavy wet snow.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 73/50 there was a reported 0.01” of rainfall the sun was out 100% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 24 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 67/46 the record high of 88 was set in 1896 and 1930 the record low of 23 was set in 1947. The most rainfall of 4.10” fell in 1956 the record snowfall of 5.5” fell in 1923 that is also the record snowfall for the month of May. Last year the H/L was 73/44.

The overnight low here in MBY was 52. At the current time it is 53 with clouds moving in from the SW.

[Hawkeye]

I got 0.33" of rain early this morning from a weakening band of rain/storms.  More scattered showers should fill in this afternoon.

[bud2380]

There is a flood watch issued for the Iowa River near my house.  It's hard to even believe considering just a few months ago that river was very low and had been that way for awhile.  It's been some time since I've seen a river flood watch in this area.  I would imagine at least a couple of years, at least that I can recall.  

[chescowxman]

An increasingly chilly day with the wind becoming onshore from the chilly atlantic waters today. Shower chances increase this afternoon. Tomorrow will be a very raw day for May with temps in the higher spots of Chester and Berks counties struggling to escape the 40's to around 50 degrees. Saturday looks like the driest day of the weekend. But the weekend as a whole will not be a washout.

Chester County wide records for today: High 96 degrees at Phoenixville (1936) / Low 25 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1947) / Rain 2.46" at Glenmoore (1992)

[chescowxman]

20 hours ago, tStacsh said:

It's almost like Humans can change climate on a small scale and large scale.  Crazy.  Thanks for confirming the impact humans have on climate.  

Truth but only over micro climates like UHI areas around big cities and many airports.

[Clinton]

The drought is completely busted in western Missouri and more rain is in the forecast most of next week.  A good soaker looks likely on Monday.

[Stormy]

10 hours ago, bud2380 said:

There is a flood watch issued for the Iowa River near my house.  It's hard to even believe considering just a few months ago that river was very low and had been that way for awhile.  It's been some time since I've seen a river flood watch in this area.  I would imagine at least a couple of years, at least that I can recall.  

And that stretch of the Iowa River always seems to be quicker to flood, and I'm not sure why 

[Stormy]

I picked up 0.23" overnight with heavier showers just missing. Currently getting some light rain again.

[Andie]

Baseball sized hail about 25mi. west of me.  
I didn’t get a drop.  Some very good deep rumbling thunder though!   

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/51 there was 0.01” of rainfall it was a cloudy day with just 2% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 68/47 the record high of 89 was in 1896 the record low of 22 was in 1966. The record rainfall of 3.53” fell in 1981 the record snow fall of 5.5” fell in 1902. That also ties the record snowfall for May. It is the latest day with 1” or more of snowfall. Last year the H/L was 75/45.

There was just a trace of rain fall here in MBY yesterday and overnight. The overnight low here was 43 and the current temperature is 45 with clear skies.

 

[Clinton]

Perfect weather for mby this weekend with sun and temps in the mid to upper 70s.  2 rounds of widespread rainfall next week followed by another shot of cool air.  Also looks like my area will get a nice break from severe weather for awhile but that will likely return before the end of the month.

 

[westMJim]

Some weather History for May 10

1902: A snowstorm drops from 1 to 6 inches of slushy snow across Lower Michigan. The four inches of snow at Muskegon is the latest measurable snow on record there

2006: A small weak tornado, determined to be a “landspout” moved through an open field near Schoolcraft in Kalamazoo County, doing no damage.

On May 10, 2003, 1-inch hail was reported in Wyandotte at 12:10 am. 3/4-inch hail was also reported in Redford and Wyandotte on this day.

1880: A tornado estimated to be F4 intensity moved across 20 miles of Scott and Morgan Counties in central Illinois. The tornado touched down near Alsey and moved northeast, passing 8 miles south of Jacksonville. The tornado was strongest in the Pisgah area, where 30 buildings were destroyed. Seven people were killed.

1905: On Wednesday, May 10th, 1905, the Oklahoma Territory was struck by one of the worst natural disasters in early American history. Tornadoes pounded the southwest part of the Territory, one of which flattened the town of Snyder. The “official” death toll is listed today as 97, but the actual number of victims may never be known. One hundred years later, this single tornado remains the second most deadly in Oklahoma history.

1953: Four, F4 tornadoes touched down in parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. One F4 tornado moved northeast from northeast of Fountain City, Wisconsin to Colburn, Wisconsin. The total damage from this storm was $1 million, and it caused ten injuries.

The second F4 tornado moved from 5 miles southwest of Chester, Iowa to 4 miles northeast of Chatfield, Minnesota. One man was killed as his barn was destroyed one-mile southeast of Wykoff. A rural school was leveled 3 miles south of Chatfield as well.

The third F4 tornado moved northeast and passed about 2 miles northwest of St. Charles, Minnesota. Farms were torn up all along the track. An infant was killed, and four other people were injured in a car that was thrown 100 feet. Overall this tornado killed one person and injured 11 people.

The final F4 tornado moved across Rusk, Price, and Taylor counties in Wisconsin. Over $150,000 worth of damage resulted. An F3 tornado moved northeast across Clayton County, Iowa. At least 60 head of cattle were killed. A farmer was carried 700 feet but suffered only minor injuries.

2010: On this day, Oklahoma experienced its largest tornado outbreak since May 3, 1999. Fifty-five twisters tore through the state, including two rated EF4. The EF4 storms took three lives and injured 81 people. Ironically, both EF4 tornadoes struck Norman, Oklahoma, home of the Storm Prediction Center and the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Fourteen additional tornadoes hit Oklahoma during May 11-13. The May 10 disaster racked up insured property losses of $2 billion.

 

[Tom]

Hello from Chicago!  I flew out to my old stomping grounds to visit my family for my nieces communion.  I've been watching this weekends weather like a hawk and I'm thrilled that the clipper system is tracking just quick enough and to my east into MI on SAT.  Glad to see the rain has been completely taken out of the forecast for both SAT and SUN.  Mother's Day is just going to be gorgeous. 

As some of you know, I just love flying and my flight yesterday was literally my Top 3 "smoothest" flight ever.  Not even one bump of turbulence coming out of PHX, or even over the mountains in the SW...not until we began our descent into ORD we had minimal bumps from the clouds, etc.  Not to shabby!  Oh, and to top it of, we flew in record time as the pilot came on and said the flight will be 2 hours and 45 min!  #winning. Normally, its just about 3.5 hours or less.

[Tom]

Coming from the "Valley of the Sun"...this is a legit SPRING forecast for Chicago...I'm so happy the sun will be out for 3 days straight!  I guess I brought some of that valley sun with me, however, mid 40's definitely feel a wee bit chilly.  We have the furnace on this morning and I'm hoping to have a fire later on this evening if the wood is dry.

[chescowxman]

0.30" of rain here in East Nantmeal since yesterday with 0.17" since midnight. Today will be unseasonable chilly and wet day with temps in some higher spots remaining in the 40's. A brief break tomorrow with some sun before rain returns late at night into Sunday. One more nice day on Monday before showers return for much of the remainder of the week.

Chester County daily records for today: High 94 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1896) / Record low 27 degrees at Coatesville 1SW and Devault 1W (1966) / Rain 1.76" at Coatesville 2W (1990)

[hawkstwelve]

Could be some big time Aurora viewing overnight and this weekend.

https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1788956634682647032https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1788956634682647032

[hawkstwelve]

Wow... G5 storm now...

 

[Minny_Weather]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wow... G5 storm now...

 

I wanted to go out for it... But I f'ed up and forgot my tripod (I'm in Fargo for the weekend).

 

So here's a spring pic from home instead.

[Tom]

It's a breezy, sunny and little chill in the air this morning...51F and a little damp from the line of showers that rolled on through around midnight that I woke up to.  Looking forward to my nieces communion today and Mother's Day tomorrow. Have a great weekend!

[Clinton]

 

20 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Could be some big time Aurora viewing overnight and this weekend.

https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1788956634682647032https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1788956634682647032

Best viewing I've ever had in Missouri, the whole family got to enjoy it last night. 

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

Best viewing I've ever had in Missouri, the whole family got to enjoy it last night. 

Wow, that's amazing how far south they came...incredible experience!  I hope to see them while I'm out here in Chicago.

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

Wow, that's amazing how far south they came...incredible experience!  I hope to see them while I'm out here in Chicago.

It was beautiful and far better than I expected. 

[chescowxman]

While today will be a bit warmer and sunnier than yesterday we will still end up with high temps in the low 60's a good 10 degrees cooler than we should be on May 11th. Rain returns tonight into tomorrow before the sun returns Monday.

Chester County records for today: High 93 degrees at Kennett Square (1896) / Low 28 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1947) / Rain 2.95" Phoenixville (1931)

[jcwxguy]

just a few of the pictures i got last night

[jcwxguy]