May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

That Honestly feels like a pretty reasonable forecast.  With the heat focussed to our east we would likely see a little more marine influence than some of our recent summers.  

Yeah, a slightly warmer version of the summers seen 2010-12 doesn't seem out of the question.

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Great question... I need a PNW climate guru like @BLI snowman to answer that.

In terms of sensible weather analogs in the region, 1988 is about as good of a match as you could get since mid March.

Even with a couple of big spikes, 1988 would be an extremely tolerable summer by today's standards. Although I could do without the gross October.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

In terms of sensible weather analogs in the region, 1988 is about as good of a match as you could get since mid March.

Even with a couple of big spikes, 1988 would be an extremely tolerable summer by today's standards. Although I could do without the gross October.

Also a summer that was brutal in the middle of the country.   That was the hottest summer I can remember growing up in Minnesota... lawns were burnt brown by early June and lake levels were really low by the middle of summer.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also a summer that was brutal in the middle of the country.   That was the hottest summer I can remember growing up in Minnesota... lawns were burnt brown by early June and lake levels were really low by the middle of summer.

Yeah, that was the year that AGW really took off in the news media and that summer and the big drought was a big reason why. The Yellowstone fires also happened that year.

I do think a similar setup is likely this year, with the heat dome centered to our east and occasionally nudging into our backyard. Probably going to be some pretty nasty numbers in places back east that were mostly spared the last few years.

Edited May 28 by BLI snowman

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

0.2” on the day. 1.4” on the month. Excellent for my area standards over the last 3 years. If I’m scoring… you know things are wet.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

In terms of sensible weather analogs in the region, 1988 is about as good of a match as you could get since mid March.

Even with a couple of big spikes, 1988 would be an extremely tolerable summer by today's standards. Although I could do without the gross October.

Is 1988 the 4th of July I spent under a blue tarp with a coat on at the family lake house? 

[westcoastexpat]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

When was the last year we had a troughing pattern ensue so late? It started in late April this year. Even as recently as last year I never would have guessed.

2022? It was a very slow start to summer. I think we waited until mid July.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is 1988 the 4th of July I spent under a blue tarp with a coat on at the family lake house? 

Possibly... 67/51 day at SEA on 7/4/88.     The best part of that summer started on 7/6 which is basically the running joke about summer in Seattle.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

2022? It was a very slow start to summer. I think we waited until mid July.

The warm/dry season started on 6/20 in 2022.  

@Meatyorologist was referring to the last spring when troughing waited until late April to start.  

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, a slightly warmer version of the summers seen 2010-12 doesn't seem out of the question.

I think next summer will be the one.  Could be pretty cool.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

2022? It was a very slow start to summer. I think we waited until mid July.

And then it got with the program.  That seems to be the story recently.  Whenever summer gets going it digs in hard.

[Phil]

Mexico - Gulf Coast death ridge preparing to make its move. It will take no prisoners.

 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we got all of our rain in about a 10 minute burst here today.  Nice when it does it like that.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is 1988 the 4th of July I spent under a blue tarp with a coat on at the family lake house? 

Probably, that was a pretty beastly trough at the beginning of July. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phil said:

Mexico - Gulf Coast death ridge preparing to make its move.

 

That Central America heatwave does seem a bit ominous.  Could be a harbinger of things to come for much of the CONUS.  Pretty impressive how we have the big South America cold wave, then the big Central America heatwave, and then a big cool period north of that in the Western US right now.  Very compartmentalized.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like we got all of our rain in about a 10 minute burst here today.  Nice when it does it like that.

Tomorrow will likely be wetter for us with a southward migrating c-zone.

[LowerGarfield]

Getting very dark here. Could see some T-Storms later. So far much cooler than yesterday. 70F outside compared to our high of 77F. My wife is getting her pressure headaches that seem to happen when the pressure changes or if the air is unstable, so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some flashes.

[Slushy Inch]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF backed down a little on rainfall totals early next week but still wet on Sunday and Monday.   

Also builds the ridge in faster than the its 00Z run... always a good sign when timing moves up.    And its significantly stronger with the ridge later next week.    Nice run.  

Heat looking more likely 

[LowerGarfield]

10 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

2022? It was a very slow start to summer. I think we waited until mid July.

One of my favorites though. Reduced fire risk in my area big time.

[RentonHill]

18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, that was the year that AGW really took off in the news media and that summer and the big drought was a big reason why. The Yellowstone fires also happened that year.

I do think a similar setup is likely this year, with the heat dome centered to our east and occasionally nudging into our backyard. Probably going to be some pretty nasty numbers in places back east that were mostly spared the last few years.

Interesting that 1988 also had 4 dry preceding years in the July-August period, albeit less extreme than our current streak.

 

[Slushy Inch]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... it’s been very consistent for many runs.

I like that duration 

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That Central America heatwave does seem a bit ominous.  Could be a harbinger of things to come for much of the CONUS.  Pretty impressive how we have the big South America cold wave, then the big Central America heatwave, and then a big cool period north of that in the Western US right now.  Very compartmentalized.

https://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-city-water-crisis-day-zero-drought-rain-2024-5?amp
 

Ouch. Let’s hope Mexico’s tropical wet season / “monsoon” delivers this year.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That Central America heatwave does seem a bit ominous.  Could be a harbinger of things to come for much of the CONUS.  Pretty impressive how we have the big South America cold wave, then the big Central America heatwave, and then a big cool period north of that in the Western US right now.  Very compartmentalized.

I haven’t heard anything about the South American cold wave 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably, that was a pretty beastly trough at the beginning of July. 

Uggghhh.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tomorrow will likely be wetter for us with a southward migrating c-zone.

Yup.  Things finally look decent later in the week.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I haven’t heard anything about the South American cold wave 

The south half of the continent has been very cold.  They say the coldest May since 1950 in Chile and Argentina.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

The weather has been absolutely brutal at Denali since I left, been very cold windy and snowy, I've read that a few people have gotten severe frostbite. Sill no good summit weather on the forecast, very glad we decided to summit on the 20th because otherwise we would've never had another chance to summit.

[snow_wizard]

When you convert this to degrees F it's almost equal to how cold the NW was in November 1985.  It can still happen!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

The weather has been absolutely brutal at Denali since I left, been very cold windy and snowy, I've read that a few people have gotten severe frostbite. Sill no good summit weather on the forecast, very glad we decided to summit on the 20th because otherwise we would've never had another chance to summit.

Sounds like you had an amazing adventure!

[RentonHill]

At Seatac, 1988 still holds record high max temps for days in June, July, August, and September.

June: 6/14 (86)

July: 7/25 (94)

August: 8/23 (91)

September: 9/2 (98!), 9/3 (92) 

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, that was the year that AGW really took off in the news media and that summer and the big drought was a big reason why. The Yellowstone fires also happened that year.

I do think a similar setup is likely this year, with the heat dome centered to our east and occasionally nudging into our backyard. Probably going to be some pretty nasty numbers in places back east that were mostly spared the last few years.

And we've never heard the end of it since.  I'm still not totally buying it.  Why did we have a period of global cooling in the 1960s and early 70s?  We had tons of CO2 being pumped into the air then as well, and well before that also.  There's more to all of this than people realize.  

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

At Seatac, 1988 still holds record high max temps for days in June, July, August, and September.

June: 6/14 (88)

July: 7/25 (94)

August: 8/23 (91)

September: 9/2 (98!), 9/3 (92) ots of heat spikes...but it always reverted back to 

This year has shown some signs of that to this point at least.  I'll never forget the mega blast that winter.  Besides that we had the big March snow event, and a good C-Zone snow in January, and other snows in Jan as well.

[Front Ranger]

44 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, that was the year that AGW really took off in the news media and that summer and the big drought was a big reason why. The Yellowstone fires also happened that year.

I do think a similar setup is likely this year, with the heat dome centered to our east and occasionally nudging into our backyard. Probably going to be some pretty nasty numbers in places back east that were mostly spared the last few years.

Yeah, the last summer where the East really torched across the board was 2016. They're due. Last brutal one for the middle 2/3 of the country was 2012. 

Something along those veins, perhaps with some 1988 thrown in, seems like a good guess.

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

At Seatac, 1988 still holds record high max temps for days in June, July, August, and September.

June: 6/14 (88)

July: 7/25 (94)

August: 8/23 (91)

September: 9/2 (98!), 9/3 (92) 

I'm seeing a record of only 86 on 6/14. Talk about low hanging fruit. 

[Omegaraptor]

 

First day of Eugene grass pollen above 400!

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm seeing a record of only 86 on 6/14. Talk about low hanging fruit. 

thanks - fixed it. I bet we beat it this year...

[Slushy Inch]

Cascades are going to get some snow in June! I know not that rare.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Cascades are going to get some snow in June! I know not that rare.

Ehhhh... maybe the highest peaks.

Here is the ECMWF 2-day snowfall for the trough early next week.   Not much! 

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ehhhh... maybe the highest peaks.

Here is the ECMWF 2-day snowfall for the trough early next week.   Not much! 

I guess I would have known if I had weatherbell year round. I will say 18z gfs has a cooler/deeper trough this run, maybe   Euro will follow.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ehhhh... maybe the highest peaks.

Here is the ECMWF 2-day snowfall for the trough early next week.   Not much! 

Stehekin is almost in the 1st shade of grey!