May 6-9 Multi Day Severe Weather Outbreak

[Black Hole]

Once again we are looking at multiple days of severe weather potential for many of our members. 

Starting out Monday, it looks like the potential for a significant outbreak across KS/OK with the potential for giant hail and strong tornadoes. I'll be in OKC this week, so maybe I can get some actual severe weather...or maybe it'll just hit Tulsa and I'll be unlucky lol.

The severe weather threat then shifts northeast towards the Ohio Valley for Tuesday-Wednesday. Finally, severe weather may then affect the southeast on Thursday. This looks like another potential doozy, so buckle up! 

[Clinton]

Timing doesn't look right for me to get much in the way of severe weather but most models show around an inch of rain, the Euro showing 3 inches here.

[Clinton]

Active day tomorrow especially for Oklahoma and Kansas.

The NAM indicating that Tuesday and Wednesday could be an active day for others  east into the Ohio Valley.  

 

[Black Hole]

There is a lot of serious hype on twitter about Monday's set up for Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Whether it materializes or not remains to be seen, but I think a high risk may end up being issued for this one. It has everything you want for a serious tornado event. 

I think in my mind the key questions are where along the dry line does it initiate? It'll probably somewhere near OKC in terms of longitude, but that +/- 50 miles will make all the difference there. Then, when does it shift from discrete to linear mode? I expect that to happen near the longitude of Tulsa, but again when it does this will matter. In the pre linear mode I think strong to violent tornadoes will be possible along with giant hail and locally sig severe wind as well. 

Once the storm goes linear you assume the threat shifts to strong wind with QLCS tornadoes. Looks like a rough afternoon and evening coming. 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

There is a lot of serious hype on twitter about Monday's set up for Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Whether it materializes or not remains to be seen, but I think a high risk may end up being issued for this one. It has everything you want for a serious tornado event. 

I think in my mind the key questions are where along the dry line does it initiate? It'll probably somewhere near OKC in terms of longitude, but that +/- 50 miles will make all the difference there. Then, when does it shift from discrete to linear mode? I expect that to happen near the longitude of Tulsa, but again when it does this will matter. In the pre linear mode I think strong to violent tornadoes will be possible along with giant hail and locally sig severe wind as well. 

Once the storm goes linear you assume the threat shifts to strong wind with QLCS tornadoes. Looks like a rough afternoon and evening coming. 

I wonder if we'll see the moderate risk expanded further north.  Both the HRRR and 3km NAM showing an explosion of storms from south central Kansas through eastern Nebraska.  I'm also concerned that it could be another nocturnal event for Oklahoma.

[Iceresistance]

I am aware, tomorrow might go High, as NWS-Norman mentioned it's "Not out of the question"

[Black Hole]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

I wonder if we'll see the moderate risk expanded further north.  Both the HRRR and 3km NAM showing an explosion of storms from south central Kansas through eastern Nebraska.  I'm also concerned that it could be another nocturnal event for Oklahoma.

I agree on this, there will probably be a lower ceiling up there and yet the coverage will be higher than most of Oklahoma.

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I am aware, tomorrow might go High, as NWS-Norman mentioned it's "Not out of the question"

Those who work at SPC and I follow on twitter are certainly saying this is the highest risk event of the year so far so yes, definitely possible. The one thing that may hold them back is that models are not showing a ton of convection over central/southern OK so they may not have the confidence to go high if there is any question the cap may not break. We will find out soon enough!

[Clinton]

Dangerous weather ahead tonight with both the 3km NAM and HRRR showing a raging line of supercells after dark.

[Iceresistance]

HIGH RISK

 

[Timmy Supercell]

This will be my 4th or 5th Slight Risk or higher for northeastern Kentucky so far this year. And make that two days of it back to back.

[Clinton]

Moderate and enhanced areas extended further north east.  

[Blizzard777]

Thing are about to get exciting here in Oklahoma City! The line is getting close and storms will explode around us. My car is tucked away in a garage and we do have a shelter in case of warning which I’m sure we will get. view from our room is north and I got my cowboy hat on

[Clinton]

Watch about to go out in east central Kansas into eastern Nebraska.  SE Nebraska needs to put that tornado magnet away!

[Blizzard777]

Line is beginning to show up just NW of me 

[Blizzard777]

4 tornados active according to the radar. 
Line slowly approaching. 
2 minutes 39 seconds to the shelter as we just did a drill. Current view looking north. Clouds are cruising fast above us!!!

[Blizzard777]

Mammatus!

[Blizzard777]

So cool looking! 
Oklahoma City 

[Clinton]

Tornado watch until 4am.  Looks like a QLCS risk along a squall line for me.

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 hours ago, Blizzard777 said:

Thing are about to get exciting here in Oklahoma City! The line is getting close and storms will explode around us. My car is tucked away in a garage and we do have a shelter in case of warning which I’m sure we will get. view from our room is north and I got my cowboy hat on

Their weather station did not survive.

[Clinton]

I received .80 inches of rain last night.  I had a tornado warning around 12:30 as the lime moved through but I only had strong straight winds.

[Clinton]

Looks like the rest of the action this week will be off to my east although it may be close on Wednesday, I have a slight risk as of now.

[Clinton]

6 possible tornadoes in the KC area that the weather service is going to check out today.  The worst looks to have been on the east side of the KC metro in the cities of Blue Springs and Grain Valley.  Damage to a school and semis and campers flipped over.

[OttumwaSnomow]

.55 overnight.   Just a absurd wet pattern.  Not complaining 

[MIKEKC]

Added another .48 inches of rain last night and no real severe weather in the immediate KC area. Drought busting rains the last 10 days that came on the heels of 90+ days of very dry weather. Thick, wet grass and fast growing vegetation in KC, it must be MAY. 

Weather pattern looks to be more dry than wet over the next 10 days. Some cool weather in there to to end the week. 40's for some overnight lows. 

[Hawkeye]

0.55" here early this morning, with a couple big cracks of thunder.

[Timmy Supercell]

Heard some towns in Oklahoma get nailed hard.

We had a storm last night but more or less an average t'storm for around here. Later today and tomorrow I'll keep you all updated on local activity. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Should be an active couple of days. There's already a line of storms going through western Kentucky right now.

[Hoosier]

Visible satellite shows an area of clearing in IL behind the current activity.  

[Hoosier]

Risk areas were expanded west on the new outlook.  Now basically all of Chicagoland is in the slight risk with the enhanced just across the border in IN.

[Timmy Supercell]

[tStacsh]

Tornado watch here.  So much for golf league tonight.  Second one that will be canceled already this spring due to storms.    sigh

[Tom]

Large TOR OTG near Kalamazoo, MI right near @jaster220 old place…

 

Edit: Another large TOR just south of there…

[Clinton]

2 confirmed tornadoes in the KC metro area so far from yesterdays storms.

[Stacsh]

Portage , MI just got hit by 2 large tornadoes an hour apart almost on an identical path.  Absolutely crazy.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Tornado Watches are now covering most of the Ohio Valley region. Sometime in the next couple hours they may have one for these counties here.

[Timmy Supercell]

[Tom]

My mother just flew in between the storms over N IL and landed safely but it was quite turbulent!

[Clinton]

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop this morning off to my west, models wanna bring them through my area.  Big storms will develop this afternoon with a moderate risk area over SE MO into Kentucky and Tenn.

[Clinton]

Nasty looking Warnes cell moving in with golfball sized hail and sharp lighting.