October 2014 observations and discussion

[Tom]

00z Euro doesn't have many temps above normal for our region next week into the following weekend.  It's showing another trough hitting the Lakes/Midwest.  Now, huge differences showing up in the Euro ensembles Day 10 on overnight runs and into Day 15.  More and more members are starting to see the pattern.  Check out the cold pooling in the most recent run in Central Canada around Day 10 and creeping farther into the Upper Midwest.  Something I mentioned to watch out for.  Day 15 the trough is digging deeper in the east due to the storminess leaving the GOA and ending up farther south and west that pumps the ridge on the west coast.

[Geos]

This rain is a surprise this morning! Bummer - I was all ready for outdoor plans this morning!

 

Low 30s predicted tonight with a frost advisory.

[Tom]

 

This rain is a surprise this morning! Bummer - I was all ready for outdoor plans this morning!

 

Low 30s predicted tonight with a frost advisory.

 

Same here, the photographer is coming by my sisters in a few to take pictures for her wedding.  Definitely going to be an indoor thing.  Hoping the clouds clear later on but its not looking good up north.

[Geos]

Same here, the photographer is coming by my sisters in a few to take pictures for her wedding.  Definitely going to be an indoor thing.  Hoping the clouds clear later on but its not looking good up north.

 

Today does not look like it will contain much sun. Maybe some late afternoon. Hopefully the rest of your Sister's wedding day goes great!

 

Currently 43° with a steady N wind. 0.10" of rain fell here. I hope tomorrow doesn't hold any surprises.

 

Trying to get pictures of the near peak colors while the sun is out has become impossible this week!

 

 

[james1976]

DMX talking a warm weekend for next weekend:
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AGAIN  
BEHIND SYSTEM...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR  
WEEKEND.  

[Niko]

DMX talking a warm weekend for next weekend:

RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AGAIN  

BEHIND SYSTEM...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR  

WEEKEND.  

Yup, my temperatures will sore into the mid to upper 60s. Someone could hit 70F!

[Niko]

It is chilly today. My temps remained into the 40s all day with a wcf into the 30s. On and off spotty light showers. Very little sun to speak off. Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies dominated the sky.

[Geos]

Saw the outline of the sun a few times through the clouds. Maybe a couple minutes of sun here and there, but today can be chalked up in the cloudy category. 48° for a high.

With only one high above 70° this month, I'm not going to hold my breathe for anything close to that for next week. Lol 

 

Right now there is low to mid 60s forecast for next Friday and Saturday.

[Tom]

Saw the outline of the sun a few times through the clouds. Maybe a couple minutes of sun here and there, but today can be chalked up in the cloudy category. 48° for a high.

With only one high above 70° this month, I'm not going to hold my breathe for anything close to that for next week. Lol 

You and me both.  I don't see how we will see high temps near 70F next week.  Euro has maybe 1 day next Saturday coming close to upper 60's, but that's it.  The plains have a better shot at 70's and experiencing Indian Summer.  Unless a big storm spins up and pumps a big ridge out ahead of it.

[Meichel]

 

This rain is a surprise this morning! Bummer - I was all ready for outdoor plans this morning!

 

Low 30s predicted tonight with a frost advisory.

 

Big surprise to the homeowner whose sliding glass door I had just taken off the back of his house as well. Luckily, it only lasted 20 minutes.

 

Had some sun this afternoon for a bit, Round 1 with the maple leaves in the back yard. I have 6 maples. 4 of them are still solid green, 2 of them red and half bare.

[Geos]

Rain lasted here almost 2 hours. Raked some leaves today. Will be raking leaves probably the next 3 weeks. My trees don't change and drop their leaves all together either.

 

Temperature already at 38°. Will likely see frost before 10pm. Probably a freeze tonight.

[Geos]

Already frosty here with a temp of 34°.

[Niko]

Now my temps are forecasted to be in the mid to upper 60's for next weekend. Sounds like an awesome weekend (Indian Summer type weather).

 

Edit: My overnight low was an coldddddd 29F.  My first 20s of the autumn season. Very nice! Everything outside this morning was covered in frost, as if it had snowed. I can honestly say that my area last night had a "Hard Freeze".

[Tom]

12z Euro showing some chilly days this week...Tue/Wed look to be the coldest in the Lakes

[Tom]

This coming weekend is going to be fantastic around here.  High temps near 70F on both Sat/Sun with sunny skies and on Monday a storm system may pump mid 70's out ahead of it.  Should be an excellent time to do some raking and enjoy the outdoors!

[Geos]

I'll definitely be raking next weekend! Appreciate that it doesn't look cold and rainy at the end of the week.

 

Took these pics on Sunday at Devil's Lake and Natural Bridge State Parks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Nice pics Geo's!  Those trees look like they are almost past peak.  Looks like you were hiking on some very nice trails on Sunday.

 

Anyhow, I wanted to post something I believed the Euro ensembles were way off on last week.  Notice on the maps below, the stark difference in the 850's from just 2 days ago from the blow torch run on the 19th 12z run, to last night's 00z run for the same time period 1 week from now.  Big difference and the cold pool building in the Plains/Upper Midwest/Canada.  Something I was watching that would happen.  Fast forward to Day 15 and you will notice the model sniffing out the blocking over the top, and the cold pool still brewing in the Plains/Upper Midwest/Canada.  This should set up an active storm track in the central CONUS as we head into November.  I believe the Plains/Midwest will be in line for some wintry systems within the next 2 weeks.

[Geos]

Yeah some areas the trees seemed to be at peak and some maybe just a little after. A lot of color no doubt out in that area of WI.

 

High of only 49° today, with solid overcast until about 5pm.

[Niko]

My projected high for early next week is now 70F. In the meantime, a warm-up is in store for the rest of this week and especially into the weekend with temps climbing into the 60s. It should feel real nice, especially next week with temps being in the 70s. Then, back to normal temps with highs mainly in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

[Tom]

Yeah some areas the trees seemed to be at peak and some maybe just a little after. A lot of color no doubt out in that area of WI.

 

High of only 49° today, with solid overcast until about 5pm.

Leaves are starting to really fly off the trees the past couple days.  BTW, I saw your photos on Skillings show!  A nice tranquil week on tap before more exciting weather rolls on in the following week.

 

The last 3 runs of the Euro don't have temps peaking past 65F this weekend near the Lakes, the only real warm day would be Monday as a system pumps up the temps higher near 70F.  The following week is looking more chilly.  Halloween has chill in the air!

[Tom]

12z GFS is siding with the 00z Euro and a colder looking close of October is in the works.  A very chilly Halloween for the trick o' treaters!

[Tom]

What's better than some Halloween snow flakes???

[james1976]

Bullseye Tom!
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Tom]

12z Euro knocks down temps a bit on Sunday, Monday looks to be the warmest day in E NE/IA where mid 70's are possible!  Euro also showing a lower lakes cutter next Wednesday.  This would be the 3rd cutter of the 2014-15 LRC pattern.  Let's see how many more of these come together in Cycle #1.

[Geos]

I was looking at my 7 day forecast and the warmest is 67° next Monday. Wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being lower 60s. 

 

I'm all up for snowflakes on Halloween!

 

Sounding near Beloit for 216 hours.

 

 

[The Snowman]

Updated long range discussion coming out, here's the first part, mainly discussing the first 7 days outlook.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/extended-forecast-discussion-part-1.html

[Geos]

52° for a high today. Really sunny today, which was really nice. Already frosty out there tonight with a temp near 32°.

[Tom]

GFS continues to indicate a significant cold shot into the Midwest/Lakes towards Halloween and with some Northwoods snow!  Some flakes may be flying farther south as well.  Teleconnections during this period would make suggest for this system to intensify in this region.

 

 

[Geos]

Chilly morning down near 31° or so. Heavy frost.

 

Lol, now it's only supposed to be in the 50s come Sunday and Monday here!

[Maxim]

Chilly morning down near 31° or so. Heavy frost.

 

Lol, now it's only supposed to be in the 50s come Sunday and Monday here!

Monday is supposed to be well into the 60s, possibly touching 70..

[Geos]

Monday is supposed to be well into the 60s, possibly touching 70..

 

Have no idea why I said Monday. You are correct.

[Money]

Halloween looks like it will be in the 30's and possibly snowy in some places. 

[Tom]

Halloween looks like it will be in the 30's and possibly snowy in some places. 

Some are in denial that this is even possible...12z GFS keeps digging the trough deeper and stronger.  Check out the difference in the mean trough from just 2 days ago.

[bud2380]

GFS definitely hinting at a storm around Halloween for portions of the Great Lakes/midwest

 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[bud2380]

GEM also hinting at a storm in this time frame, but temps appear warmer on this model; all rain. 

 

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/PNMPR_panel.gif

[NEJeremy]

.60" of rain last night and only dropped to about 60 degrees all night long. definitely no cooler air behind this system as today is supposed to be near 70, and then tomorrow near 80 degrees, and 70s the rest of the weekend.

[Tom]

Boom!  12z Euro unloads a major shot of cold into the heartland with a 1038mb early season arctic HP into the Plains!  Doesn't have the snow, YET, but certainly has the COLD...still time to see what track this system takes.  I'm sure this will turn some heads finally and maybe the deniers may want to hop on board.  The winter pattern is evolving before our eyes.

 

Could it be possible to have back to back daytime high temps in the upper 30's?  Crazy...Happy Halloween!

[james1976]

rained all morning and is still cliudy here...low 50s all day. definitely more rain and clouds with this front than they were predicting.

[Hawkeye]

Barely got any rain here in CR... only a few hundredths.  We don't need any rain, though.  I'm just trying to enjoy the garden for a bit longer.  The flowers have done well to last this long, but once in late October a hard freeze could hit at any time.  Next weekend may be it.

[Maxim]

I don't get the CPC outlooks, they're calling for above normal temps for most of the country through the end of October and early November.