snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 I know many on this forum probably still have nightmares about the huge bust in January 2005, but I wanted to bring it up since the current torching is strongly analogous to 2004. That year we broke out of the balmy pattern in late October just like it appears we will this year. Just the year before we also had a huge late summer / autumn torch that ended at the same time. Both 2003-04 and 2004-05 saw the coldest weather of the winter in early January so that does seem to be a window to watch this winter. Anyway...I don't think many people realize we had many of the same features in place in the first half of Jan 2005, that we had in Jan 1950. At the time the CPC analogs were indeed showing a strong parallel to that frigid January. We had an Aleutian block in almost exactly the same place as 1950 and it was of the same magnitude. We also had an area of above normal heights over the Eastern US. Once again same placement and magnitude as 1950. The only fly in the ointment is the fact the trough between the two positive anomaly centers wasn't as strong as Jan 1950, so the brutally cold air sent southward by the Aleutian block stalled right at the Canadian border. As a result Whatcom County got quite a nice taste of winter, while places further south were only somewhat cold and snowfall somewhat limited. The bottom line is that January 2005 could have very easily ended up being the greatest winter event of this century to date if some minor details had unfolded just a bit differently. The height anomaly maps below compare the 500mb anomalies of the first half of January 2005 to the first half of January 1950. I think you will agree the similarities are almost eerie. I'm not saying we will have an opportunity like that this winter, but it is certainly interesting that Jan 2004 and Jan 2005 both had perfect or near perfect setups for very cold weather in early January after a mega torch late summer and autumn. 2003-04 was an almost perfect ENSO match and 2004-05 was actually an El Nino. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 The cold air was there too. Lows were in the -60 to -70 range in the Yukon during the second week of January. That airmass then dropped Embarrass, MN to -54 which I believe is the coldest since 1996 for that region. Even Great Falls, MT dropped to something like -34 which they don't do very often. So we just missed something epic, between the available blocking and the available cold air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 I can't even tell you how disappointing January 2005 was for me. There was so much potential, the Seattle AFD even referenced the similarities to January 1950, and the splat, probably one of the biggest busts of my lifetime. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 The Dec. 29-January 8th 2003-04 period is somewhat underrated. Coldest January highs at SLE and PDX since God knows when. The cold air in the Columbia Basin was extremely impressive. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 We got nailed pretty good during the first 2 weeks of January 2005 up here. We saw 30" that month, with 25" falling between the 6th and the 8th. We also managed to pull off 6 sub freezing highs (we only average between 4 and 5 per year) and had 0 highs above 40 during the first 16 days of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 The Dec. 29-January 8th 2003-04 period is somewhat underrated. Coldest January highs at SLE and PDX since God knows when. The cold air in the Columbia Basin was extremely impressive.Yeah the 2004 cold wave was top tier for some spots in the Columbia Basin, i.e. readings like -22 in Spokane and -29 in LaCrosse. Very impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 I would rather follow 1952-53 than 2004-05. At least that cold season had one month with significantly below average temperatures. Doesn't take much to beat a mild cold season overall with a busted arctic blast followed by an all time January record high at PDX. No thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 Also we never really cooled off after the summer/early fall torch in 2004. November and December were both above average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 I would rather follow 1952-53 than 2004-05. At least that cold season had one month with significantly below average temperatures. Doesn't take much to beat a mild cold season overall with a busted arctic blast followed by an all time January record high at PDX. No thanks. I disagree. We had a shot at greatness that winter whereas 1952-53 was nothing but a fairly cold / dry setup in November. The first two weeks of Jan 2005 were decently cold here. 9 times out of 10 the setup in Jan 2005 would have delivered. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 I disagree. We had a shot at greatness that winter whereas 1952-53 was nothing but a fairly cold / dry setup in November. The first two weeks of Jan 2005 were decently cold here. 9 times out of 10 the setup in Jan 2005 would have delivered.Maybe it's just the painful memories I have of January 2005. Plus that would mean we have over two more months of mild weather overall to deal with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 Also we never really cooled off after the summer/early fall torch in 2004. November and December were both above average. It did get pretty chilly here in late October and November. A lot of freezing low temps in there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 Also we never really cooled off after the summer/early fall torch in 2004. November and December were both above average. September 2004 was a pretty cool month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 I disagree. We had a shot at greatness that winter whereas 1952-53 was nothing but a fairly cold / dry setup in November. The first two weeks of Jan 2005 were decently cold here. 9 times out of 10 the setup in Jan 2005 would have delivered. But you know what followed January 1953? A mini ice age that didn't break until the winter of 1957-58. I'm just being silly, but in all honesty Spring 1953-Fall 1957 was the greatest stretch of sustained, regional cold anomalies that we've seen at least in the airport era. Its ironic that if followed on the heels of such a historically mild winter month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 But you know what followed January 1953? A mini ice age that didn't break until the winter of 1957-58. I'm just being silly, but in all honesty Spring 1953-Fall 1957 was the greatest stretch of sustained, regional cold anomalies that we've seen at least in the airport era. Its ironic that if followed on the heels of such a historically mild winter month. So true! You could actually make the case that the exceptionally warm / lame winter period of 1937-38 through 1945-46 was probably more than offset by the epic cold of late 1946 through 1957. There is almost always pay back. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 So true! You could actually make the case that the exceptionally warm / lame winter period of 1937-38 through 1945-46 was probably more than offset by the epic cold of late 1946 through 1957. There is almost always pay back. Makes you wonder. We've been torching more or less since Mid-February. You would have to think it will end sometime. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 Makes you wonder. We've been torching more or less since Mid-February. You would have to think it will end sometime.2014-18 the new 1953-57? I'd be tickled pink. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.