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What or how different do you suppose our climate was and flora?  How about the inland deserts like Bend/Prineville,Pendleton,Tri Cities,Yakima,etc?  Do you think things were wetter/drier? Hell do you think thunderstorms and lightning might have been better or wrong synoptics despite wetter?

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On 12/31/2020 at 4:20 PM, Link said:

What or how different do you suppose our climate was and flora?  How about the inland deserts like Bend/Prineville,Pendleton,Tri Cities,Yakima,etc?  Do you think things were wetter/drier? Hell do you think thunderstorms and lightning might have been better or wrong synoptics despite wetter?

Phil might know something about this? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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On 2/26/2021 at 1:15 PM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil might know something about this? 

How do I reach him? He never answers his inbox? 1600s to 1800s really fascinates me as I'm curious if hot weather like 2014-2015 was the norm then which the rest of the US was colder more often or vica versa?

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9 hours ago, Link said:

How do I reach him? He never answers his inbox? 1600s to 1800s really fascinates me as I'm curious if hot weather like 2014-2015 was the norm then which the rest of the US was colder more often or vica versa?

We have actual weather records from about 1850 onward and the PNW was clearly not hotter and drier back then.  

It is also very unlikely that the PNW was hot and dry in the 1600s and the 1700s during the Little Ice Age (LIA).    It was probably colder back then like much of the northern hemisphere. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil has talked a little bit about this, and I have seen some research on it as well.  The general thought is it was quite a bit cooler than present.  Pretty much all we have is tree ring and sediment data.  I think I remember something about the amount of a certain isotope of carbon seen in sediment samples indicate it was colder.  There is also evidence that blocking was much more prevalent during the winters over the NE and NC Pacific, as evidenced by the fact AK was not colder during the little ice age, and may have been slightly warmer.  We can also extrapolate what it might have looked like based on what happened in Europe during that time.  Probably more events like Jan 1880, and some winters that were long, drier than normal, and cold.  I would bet a lot less warm core / southerly flow thunderstorms.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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In PNW/BC, it was cooler, with wetter summers and drier winters. Though there was interdecadal variability back then just as there is now.

The larger difference was in the SW US, which was significantly cooler/wetter.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

In PNW/BC, it was cooler, with wetter summers and drier winters. Though there was interdecadal variability back then just as there is now.

The larger difference was in the SW US, which was significantly cooler/wetter.

Probably a more suppressed jet in the winter.  Want to see some of that next winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Do

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably a more suppressed jet in the winter.  Want to see some of that next winter.

Do you think thunder and hail might have been more common from cold fronts and would south wind events might've been more common from said fronts?  If we had the US Weather Bureau back then do you think storm flags would've been hoisted more often and advisories issued even in  summer we might get a surprise event? Do you think clouds were increased in the summer leading to May Gray/June Gloom on steroids?

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably a more suppressed jet in the winter.  Want to see some of that next winter.

God I'd love to see weather charts from back in the day if they existed.  Do you think there would've been a lot of eye candy even in the summe?

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

In PNW/BC, it was cooler, with wetter summers and drier winters. Though there was interdecadal variability back then just as there is now.

The larger difference was in the SW US, which was significantly cooler/wetter.

What would wetter summers look like you think? That seems so hard to imagine unless the late 90s were any indication as those were pretty cloudy until August.

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1 hour ago, Link said:

God I'd love to see weather charts from back in the day if they existed.  Do you think there would've been a lot of eye candy even in the summe?

My guess is most of the cooler / wetter weather in the summer would have been in the form of stratiform precip, although some cold troughs could have happened I suppose.  I think most of the thunder in the summer would have come from any cold troughs, because the 4 Corners high would have been pretty much irrelevant here under the circumstances of the time. To answer one of your other questions...we probably still had a lot of typical marine low cloud type of days in the summer, in fact probably more due to the Pacific High being more dominant.  On the other hand June might have actually been a little bit less gloomy due to things being  bit more active in that month than present.  Much of this is conjecture of course.

There would have undoubtedly been more "eye candy" during the winter.  We know that the last half of the 1800s were far snowier here than present, and it is generally believed the 1600s were colder.

I'm with you...I would pay a handsome price to have some actual records from back then.  The farthest back that I know of is from the winter 1833-34 where an official from the Hudson's Bay Company kept a diary of conditions somewhere in the Nisqually Delta area and he noted that winter was tremendously snowy.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

My guess is most of the cooler / wetter weather in the summer would have been in the form of stratiform precip, although some cold troughs could have happened I suppose.  I think most of the thunder in the summer would have come from any cold troughs, because the 4 Corners high would have been pretty much irrelevant here under the circumstances of the time. To answer one of your other questions...we probably still had a lot of typical marine low cloud type of days in the summer, in fact probably more due to the Pacific High being more dominant.  On the other hand June might have actually been a little bit less gloomy due to things being  bit more active in that month than present.  Much of this is conjecture of course.

There would have undoubtedly been more "eye candy" during the winter.  We know that the last half of the 1800s were far snowier here than present, and it is generally believed the 1600s were colder.

I'm with you...I would pay a handsome price to have some actual records from back then.  The farthest back that I know of is from the winter 1833-34 where an official from the Hudson's Bay Company kept a diary of conditions somewhere in the Nisqually Delta area and he noted that winter was tremendously snowy.

How does a Pacific high make it cloudier? Usually highs are associated with clear weather or does it have to do of where on the axis we sit relative to the high that makes them so cloudy? If so what are the differences between pacific ridge placements? Also don't you mean orographic precipitation? I thought that's usually what we get here?  Precipitation types - Wikipedia  What's stratiform like? Maybe I've seen that type and not known about it here in Oregon? 🤔  I associate Oregon with Orographic as the web address I posted.

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36 minutes ago, Link said:

How does a Pacific high make it cloudier? Usually highs are associated with clear weather or does it have to do of where on the axis we sit relative to the high that makes them so cloudy? If so what are the differences between pacific ridge placements? Also don't you mean orographic precipitation? I thought that's usually what we get here?  Precipitation types - Wikipedia  What's stratiform like? Maybe I've seen that type and not known about it here in Oregon? 🤔  I associate Oregon with Orographic as the web address I posted.

Stratiform is the typical flat grey sky light rain type of thing we see so much of.  Those clouds are called nimbostratus.  The more exciting showery type precip comes from cumulous or cumulonimbus clouds.  A more dominant Pacific high results in stronger onshore flow, which means low clouds in the summer.  Our summer were both drier and cooler than present in the first half of the 20th century due to a more dominant Pacific High.  Recently we have the 4 Corners high dominate part of the time which makes us hotter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Another thing to consider is that the timeframe being looked at here is smack-dab in the middle of the Maunder Minimum and the "little ice age" that came with it. I'd imagine that temps were cooler throughout the year based on that alone.

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13 hours ago, Link said:

What would wetter summers look like you think? That seems so hard to imagine unless the late 90s were any indication as those were pretty cloudy until August.

There was an equatorward shift of the thermal/baroclinicity gradient during the LIA, which had the storm track supressed during the winter but provided more moisture during the warm season. 

Overall it was drier annually in the LIA since the reduction in wintertime precip was larger than the increase in summertime precip. But the increase in summertime precip was substantial.

And the majority of cooling in the LIA was also during the summer. Winters were cooler as well, but it was roughy 50% of the summertime cooling in magnitude.

Here’s an interesting paper on this topic, by Steinman and Hillman (2016). Technically they’re comparing early/middle Holocene to the late Holocene (which includes the LIA), but the comparison to modern era is homogeneous given the warming trends since the 1600s reflect an evolution in the direction of the Holocene thermal maximum (though on a much smaller scale).

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116301238?casa_token=ArhNkG60x1kAAAAA:MbRxDZ6r5ZHmWh-J0h2FcP5sLUCA0j_CNiAdwlh_Uz9iYPtR0fAlk9QO01tw36T9tSml_WtG

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

There was an equatorward shift of the thermal/baroclinicity gradient during the LIA, which had the storm track supressed during the winter but provided more moisture during the warm season. 

Overall it was drier annually in the LIA since the reduction in wintertime precip was larger than the increase in summertime precip. But the increase in summertime precip was substantial.

And the majority of cooling in the LIA was also during the summer. Winters were cooler as well, but it was roughy 50% of the summertime cooling in magnitude.

Here’s an interesting paper on this topic, by Steinman and Hillman (2016). Technically they’re comparing early/middle Holocene to the late Holocene (which includes the LIA), but the comparison to modern era is homogeneous given the warming trends since the 1600s reflect an evolution in the direction of the Holocene thermal maximum (though on a much smaller scale).

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116301238?casa_token=ArhNkG60x1kAAAAA:MbRxDZ6r5ZHmWh-J0h2FcP5sLUCA0j_CNiAdwlh_Uz9iYPtR0fAlk9QO01tw36T9tSml_WtG

How come many folks on alt news sites think not only are we in an ice age but ignores the west coast post 2014 warming? They pretend it doesn't exist and cherry pick data from some cold corners of the earth painting it all over and of course their own backyard! :)   Like that counts. 

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17 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Another thing to consider is that the timeframe being looked at here is smack-dab in the middle of the Maunder Minimum and the "little ice age" that came with it. I'd imagine that temps were cooler throughout the year based on that alone.

So those ice age theorists saying we are cooling off now is pretty much BS ignoring our hot summers.  In fact the ice age nutters went crazy with the Texas weather event. 

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19 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Stratiform is the typical flat grey sky light rain type of thing we see so much of.  Those clouds are called nimbostratus.  The more exciting showery type precip comes from cumulous or cumulonimbus clouds.  A more dominant Pacific high results in stronger onshore flow, which means low clouds in the summer.  Our summer were both drier and cooler than present in the first half of the 20th century due to a more dominant Pacific High.  Recently we have the 4 Corners high dominate part of the time which makes us hotter.

 Interesting combination. What does a Pacific high look like on an archived weather chart such as these? Reanalysis archives (wetterzentrale.de)  I chose today's date for July 2011 so would this 1025mb be a Pacific High that's WAY out there or is it something else entirely?  If it is would this be a prime example of a 1600s summer setup or can you point me to a better picture?

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19 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Stratiform is the typical flat grey sky light rain type of thing we see so much of.  Those clouds are called nimbostratus.  The more exciting showery type precip comes from cumulous or cumulonimbus clouds.  A more dominant Pacific high results in stronger onshore flow, which means low clouds in the summer.  Our summer were both drier and cooler than present in the first half of the 20th century due to a more dominant Pacific High.  Recently we have the 4 Corners high dominate part of the time which makes us hotter.

So that low 30s for the Salem OR record mins isn't bogus during the summer? On July 1935 we had hit both a high of 103F and a low of 35F all within a week of each other. Sounds bizarre. 

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Comparison of the medieval warm period and the little ice age... the medieval warm period sounds MUCH nicer.    But I guess some people are into pain.  😄

 

The Little Ice Age is best known in Europe and the North Atlantic region, which experienced relatively cool conditions between the early 14th and mid-19th centuries.  Alpine glaciers advanced far below their previous (and present) limits, obliterating farms, churches, and villages in Switzerland, France, and elsewhere. Frequent cold winters and cool, wet summers ruined wine harvests and led to crop failures and famines over much of northern and central Europe. The North Atlantic cod fisheries declined as ocean temperatures fell in the 17th century. The Norse colonies on the coast of Greenland were cut off from the rest of Norse civilization during the early 15th century as pack ice and storminess increased in the North Atlantic. The western colony of Greenland collapsed through starvation, and the eastern colony was abandoned. In addition, Iceland became increasingly isolated from Scandinavia.

The Little Ice Age was preceded by a period of relatively mild conditions in northern and central Europe. This interval, known as the Medieval Warm Period, occurred from approximately AD 1000 to the first half of the 13th century. Mild summers and winters led to good harvests in much of Europe. Wheat cultivation and vineyards flourished at far higher latitudes and elevations than today. Norse colonies in Iceland and Greenland prospered, and Norse parties fished, hunted, and explored the coast of Labrador and Newfoundland. The Medieval Warm Period is well documented in much of the North Atlantic region, including ice cores from Greenland.

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6 hours ago, Link said:

So those ice age theorists saying we are cooling off now is pretty much BS ignoring our hot summers.  In fact the ice age nutters went crazy with the Texas weather event. 

I never mentioned current climatology. Interesting that you'd make that jump immediately.

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3 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

I never mentioned current climatology. Interesting that you'd make that jump immediately.

I didn't. These folks did. Ice Age Now - The next ice age could begin any day and you can't argue a cent of logic into their brain.  Whether or not it's true doesn't this reek sensationalism despite being 'against' the media tyranny?  I don't know whether to 🤣 or 😭 at our sad pathetic excuse of 'brain stormers' that argue vague stuff not really understanding the bigger picture such as the artic oscillation. Why Global Warming was a Total Farce & it's Now Incorporated into the Great Reset | Armstrong Economics Good juicy info about the - and + AO cycles which ironically is absent from a site like Ice Age now.  Weird how these little things work out huh?

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8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Comparison of the medieval warm period and the little ice age... the medieval warm period sounds MUCH nicer.    But I guess some people are into pain.  😄

 

The Little Ice Age is best known in Europe and the North Atlantic region, which experienced relatively cool conditions between the early 14th and mid-19th centuries.  Alpine glaciers advanced far below their previous (and present) limits, obliterating farms, churches, and villages in Switzerland, France, and elsewhere. Frequent cold winters and cool, wet summers ruined wine harvests and led to crop failures and famines over much of northern and central Europe. The North Atlantic cod fisheries declined as ocean temperatures fell in the 17th century. The Norse colonies on the coast of Greenland were cut off from the rest of Norse civilization during the early 15th century as pack ice and storminess increased in the North Atlantic. The western colony of Greenland collapsed through starvation, and the eastern colony was abandoned. In addition, Iceland became increasingly isolated from Scandinavia.

The Little Ice Age was preceded by a period of relatively mild conditions in northern and central Europe. This interval, known as the Medieval Warm Period, occurred from approximately AD 1000 to the first half of the 13th century. Mild summers and winters led to good harvests in much of Europe. Wheat cultivation and vineyards flourished at far higher latitudes and elevations than today. Norse colonies in Iceland and Greenland prospered, and Norse parties fished, hunted, and explored the coast of Labrador and Newfoundland. The Medieval Warm Period is well documented in much of the North Atlantic region, including ice cores from Greenland.

I'd love to live in the 1800s a 'mixed' period.  The temp roller coaster ride would be fun! 

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2 hours ago, Link said:

I didn't. These folks did. Ice Age Now - The next ice age could begin any day and you can't argue a cent of logic into their brain.  Whether or not it's true doesn't this reek sensationalism despite being 'against' the media tyranny?  I don't know whether to 🤣 or 😭 at our sad pathetic excuse of 'brain stormers' that argue vague stuff not really understanding the bigger picture such as the artic oscillation. Why Global Warming was a Total Farce & it's Now Incorporated into the Great Reset | Armstrong Economics Good juicy info about the - and + AO cycles which ironically is absent from a site like Ice Age now.  Weird how these little things work out huh?

Did I state anywhere in my brief response that I'm an ice age weenie? Like your whole response to me has been categorically inappropriate and unfounded based on what I stated originally. Maunder Min/Ice Age causality has been and continues to be vigorously studied for its veracity. It's a fair hypothesis. I didn't know that referencing a hypothesis based on a field and time currently being studied by academics means I'm pushing a super ice age conspiracy.

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14 hours ago, Link said:

How come many folks on alt news sites think not only are we in an ice age but ignores the west coast post 2014 warming? They pretend it doesn't exist and cherry pick data from some cold corners of the earth painting it all over and of course their own backyard! :)   Like that counts. 

Well, geologically speaking we are in an ice age and have been for millions of years. This is an “interglacial” period where the ice sheets are relatively retracted, but it’s still an ice age.

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7 hours ago, Link said:

I didn't. These folks did. Ice Age Now - The next ice age could begin any day and you can't argue a cent of logic into their brain.  Whether or not it's true doesn't this reek sensationalism despite being 'against' the media tyranny?  I don't know whether to 🤣 or 😭 at our sad pathetic excuse of 'brain stormers' that argue vague stuff not really understanding the bigger picture such as the artic oscillation. Why Global Warming was a Total Farce & it's Now Incorporated into the Great Reset | Armstrong Economics Good juicy info about the - and + AO cycles which ironically is absent from a site like Ice Age now.  Weird how these little things work out huh?

Not totterly all true Robert does not disagree nor does he denie we have been in a warming phase.He just does not think humans will ever completely control the cycles of the climate regardless of the effect we may or may not have  . You also have to realise its the fans that is giving him alot of the Articles he is posting I have sent a few to him in the past I beleave Andie and Geos has as well.the big reason he went to a blog site is alot of fans people wanted Robert to make his site a blog so everyone could comment on the Articles.contrary to belief he lets a very vareing types of opinions on the site.One thing I will give him credit for he stays away from the insults has respected debates.

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On 3/1/2021 at 6:34 PM, Link said:

How come many folks on alt news sites think not only are we in an ice age but ignores the west coast post 2014 warming? They pretend it doesn't exist and cherry pick data from some cold corners of the earth painting it all over and of course their own backyard! :)   Like that counts. 

The recent warming trend could easily be a natural cycle event.  It was warming well before the burning of fossil fuels had really begun.  The little ice age was a fairly cold period and the warming has been a bounce back from that.   I think we will see some global cooling over the next few decades.  Time will tell.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The recent warming trend could easily be a natural cycle event.  It was warming well before the burning of fossil fuels had really begun.  The little ice age was a fairly cold period and the warming has been a bounce back from that.   I think we will see some global cooling over the next few decades.  Time will tell.

 

And just think... we probably won't be here to see it.   Or if we are here we will be too old to know what is going on or care! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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On 3/2/2021 at 9:17 AM, Phil said:

Well, geologically speaking we are in an ice age and have been for millions of years. This is an “interglacial” period where the ice sheets are relatively retracted, but it’s still a nice age.

You forgot the N comes before the I.  Whoops! I edited the quote for you so don't say I don't do charity. :)  

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On 3/2/2021 at 12:25 PM, weatherfan2012 said:

Not totterly all true Robert does not disagree nor does he denie we have been in a warming phase.He just does not think humans will ever completely control the cycles of the climate regardless of the effect we may or may not have  . You also have to realise its the fans that is giving him alot of the Articles he is posting I have sent a few to him in the past I beleave Andie and Geos has as well.the big reason he went to a blog site is alot of fans people wanted Robert to make his site a blog so everyone could comment on the Articles.contrary to belief he lets a very vareing types of opinions on the site.One thing I will give him credit for he stays away from the insults has respected debates.

But the thing is if you go to his actual page it's all biased to the cold side while he bleeps out anything 'warm' related. For example he will say 'This South America Severe Frost shows how global warming is a farce' never mind that the same  year there will be over 1,000 plus warm records broken as well for every 500 cold weather records.

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5 hours ago, Link said:

But the thing is if you go to his actual page it's all biased to the cold side while he bleeps out anything 'warm' related. For example he will say 'This South America Severe Frost shows how global warming is a farce' never mind that the same  year there will be over 1,000 plus warm records broken as well for every 500 cold weather records.

If your concerned about it go over there and ask him your questions I'm sure he will give you reasons why he does  it.

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