Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

[Snowshoe]

18z GFS gives me 12 inches. Then to think it will be sub freezing into the foreseeable future...good God! Crazy!

[gosaints]

NAM slower looking  even further nw

[Geos]

I notice the NAM is shooting the heaviest snow axis right at the Twin Cities at 39 hours. Even a touch south.

 

[james1976]

I hate sharp cutoffs.

[Geos]

I hate sharp cutoffs.

 

Yeah same here. Maybe you can pick up a dusting at least. Down here it's all going to come down to the second wave and whether or not it can get its act together.

 

Well, onto the GFS in about 30 minutes.

[WI AOS Student Tanner]

Hey Goes.....I have weatherbell, but do not know where to get the inner domain, or close up maps with the GFS. Where did you find that map of snow totals in Wisconsin? Thanks!!

[Grizzcoat]

 Bueller? Bueller??  Sounds of crickets.   Awful quiet in here for storm of this magnitude.

[Geos]

Hey Goes.....I have weatherbell, but do not know where to get the inner domain, or close up maps with the GFS. Where did you find that map of snow totals in Wisconsin? Thanks!!

 

Hey - Go to the models pages, then to GFS Upgrade, beta. Then if you look to the column on the far right you'll see the geographical areas listed.  Go to United States regions, then you'll be able to choose the state and then just choose what map (parameter) to look at.

[Geos]

New GFS snowfall map.

 

 

[Snowshoe]

Consistent

[Geos]

Outside of the snowbelts in the UP of MI, I think somewhere from Eau Claire over towards Wausau will cash in the biggest for this storm.

 

GGEM coming in and it has the heavier snow axis more towards I-90 in MN.

 

Secondary wave stronger still.

 

Close -

 

[gosaints]

Riding the edge on the globals here

[Geos]

Riding the edge on the globals here

 

I think you'll get some snow for sure though.

 

4km NAM

 

[Geos]

Looks like the EURO is coming in a bit south from its 12z run.

 

990mb low over central NE.

 

Actually the low kicks out further south in CO, but the snow band is north like the NAM. Weird...

 

Snow band the furthest north I've seen it on the EURO and furthest north of any other model tonight.

Heaviest snow way up north just south of DLH.

 

993mb low in NW TX and 997mb just SW of DSM at 48 hr.

 

Yeah pretty different ---

 

[gosaints]

Nam close to a shut out in Msp

[james1976]

if i get enough to make the ground white ill be happy. Still be a good bday gift!

[james1976]

DMX still saying 1-2" in northern Iowa. I would take that. Also talking single digit lows late week and possible system next weekend, which would be all snow.

[Snowshoe]

The NW trend is my friend... until it's not. Hoping for a small shift south but that's unlikely. Early and late season storms always hold surprises. I'll post reports from central Wisconsin.

[gosaints]

Rgem definetly south of nam

[Madtown]

Mkx saying 1-2 tues...I'll believe it when I see it

[gosaints]

Gfs won't budge

[WildWisconsinWeather]

So far it looks like the score is: Climo: 1  Models: 0.

[gosaints]

Gfs and nam pretty far apart

[gosaints]

Ggem south and east

[james1976]

Can't wait til this system comes back around on the second cycle of the LRC.

[Tom]

Can't wait til this system comes back around on the second cycle of the LRC.

Same here...it also another phased/juicy system in this new LRC pattern.  We had a few of these this Autumn already.  Good sign.

[Scott26]

So far it looks like the score is: Climo: 1  Models: 0.

The reason why I was never buying any southern solution. The models weren't too bad with the system though. Of course there was the usual model mayhem in the medium range, but the track has been fairly consistent the last couple of days now.

[BrianJK]

I think I may head to my place up north in Eagle River.  They have the potential to see 12-18 inches.  I'll take some pics. 

 

If they do end up with that much, I wouldn't be surprised if today was the last day of bare ground until March/April.

[WI AOS Student Tanner]

My latest thoughts: http://www.midwestweather.org/2014/11/crippling-winter-storm-monday.html

[Geos]

The NW trend is my friend... until it's not. Hoping for a small shift south but that's unlikely. Early and late season storms always hold surprises. I'll post reports from central Wisconsin.

 

Sounds good! Looking for to your reports. I think you're in a good spot to see around 10".

 

Trying to understand why MKX is mentioning 1-2" for SE WI... I think they might expect some snow to break out with the Arctic front. It happened last November on 11/12. Or they expect more backlash snow to get wrapped around. Not entirely sure on that call.

 

12z EURO

 

[Geos]

Regular GFS and the New GFS

 

 

 

 

[Money]

This is exactly why you never want to be in the bullseye 3-4 days out. Usually never works out

[Tom]

It looks like this system on Tuesday wants to wrap up and almost go neg tilt.  I was watching for that to happen with this system and instead of holding back that energy like the Euro was showing days ago, it comes out, phases and goes neg tilt and that is why your seeing these impressive snow amounts in the Northwoods.  

 

Same thing goes for next weekends system.  12z Euro is holding back the energy in the Rockies/4 corners region and bringing some overruning snows into western KS/NE but never ejects out completely.  It makes sense for it to come out since the first arctic front would have gone by and the suppressing HP would move onto the east already before the next one hits.  The part of the pattern that may suppress  the system is that another piece of the PV digs farther south into the Upper Lakes next weekend. If we have snow on the ground, high temps in the Teens are possible from I-80 north by next Tuesday.  Euro showing low 20's now.  Amazing.

[Money]

18z NAM is even more NW and doesn't give GB hardly any snow. 

[gosaints]

This is the best the nam has developed the backside of the storm however

[Tom]

What first looked like days ago where it was an initial wave that was ejected out ahead of the main system, is looking more and more like this system phases and goes neg tilt in the Lakes.

[Geos]

Just looked at the GGEM and it still has that second wave. Really close to catching some snow around here at 54 hours. Madison, Janesville, and even Waukesha County might picked up more than a dusting.

 

 

[Madtown]

Just my observation but sure seems like the temps right now are cold further south than expected. Not saying it makes a difference for me but I bet heaviest snow is a little south of the models.

[Geos]

Just my observation but sure seems like the temps right now are cold further south than expected. Not saying it makes a difference for me but I bet heaviest snow is a little south of the models.

 

Yeah - good observation. It does seem that way. Shallow cold air working it way into central WI for sure. Northern Iowa too.

 

 

 

Front looks further south than it should be. 

 

[Madtown]

Oh yeah and the bears still suck