Snowshoe Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 18z GFS gives me 12 inches. Then to think it will be sub freezing into the foreseeable future...good God! Crazy! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 NAM slower looking even further nw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 I notice the NAM is shooting the heaviest snow axis right at the Twin Cities at 39 hours. Even a touch south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 I hate sharp cutoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 I hate sharp cutoffs. Yeah same here. Maybe you can pick up a dusting at least. Down here it's all going to come down to the second wave and whether or not it can get its act together. Well, onto the GFS in about 30 minutes. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WI AOS Student Tanner Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Hey Goes.....I have weatherbell, but do not know where to get the inner domain, or close up maps with the GFS. Where did you find that map of snow totals in Wisconsin? Thanks!! Quote Atmospheric Science Program at UW-MadisonIntern at NBC26 in Green BayCertified skywarn spotterHead forecaster and editor at www.midwestweather.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Bueller? Bueller?? Sounds of crickets. Awful quiet in here for storm of this magnitude. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Hey Goes.....I have weatherbell, but do not know where to get the inner domain, or close up maps with the GFS. Where did you find that map of snow totals in Wisconsin? Thanks!! Hey - Go to the models pages, then to GFS Upgrade, beta. Then if you look to the column on the far right you'll see the geographical areas listed. Go to United States regions, then you'll be able to choose the state and then just choose what map (parameter) to look at. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 New GFS snowfall map. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Consistent Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Outside of the snowbelts in the UP of MI, I think somewhere from Eau Claire over towards Wausau will cash in the biggest for this storm. GGEM coming in and it has the heavier snow axis more towards I-90 in MN. Secondary wave stronger still. Close - Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Riding the edge on the globals here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Riding the edge on the globals here I think you'll get some snow for sure though. 4km NAM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Looks like the EURO is coming in a bit south from its 12z run. 990mb low over central NE. Actually the low kicks out further south in CO, but the snow band is north like the NAM. Weird... Snow band the furthest north I've seen it on the EURO and furthest north of any other model tonight.Heaviest snow way up north just south of DLH. 993mb low in NW TX and 997mb just SW of DSM at 48 hr. Yeah pretty different --- Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Nam close to a shut out in Msp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 if i get enough to make the ground white ill be happy. Still be a good bday gift! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 DMX still saying 1-2" in northern Iowa. I would take that. Also talking single digit lows late week and possible system next weekend, which would be all snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 The NW trend is my friend... until it's not. Hoping for a small shift south but that's unlikely. Early and late season storms always hold surprises. I'll post reports from central Wisconsin. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Rgem definetly south of nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Mkx saying 1-2 tues...I'll believe it when I see it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Gfs won't budge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 So far it looks like the score is: Climo: 1 Models: 0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Gfs and nam pretty far apart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Ggem south and east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Can't wait til this system comes back around on the second cycle of the LRC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Can't wait til this system comes back around on the second cycle of the LRC.Same here...it also another phased/juicy system in this new LRC pattern. We had a few of these this Autumn already. Good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 So far it looks like the score is: Climo: 1 Models: 0.The reason why I was never buying any southern solution. The models weren't too bad with the system though. Of course there was the usual model mayhem in the medium range, but the track has been fairly consistent the last couple of days now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 I think I may head to my place up north in Eagle River. They have the potential to see 12-18 inches. I'll take some pics. If they do end up with that much, I wouldn't be surprised if today was the last day of bare ground until March/April. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WI AOS Student Tanner Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 My latest thoughts: http://www.midwestweather.org/2014/11/crippling-winter-storm-monday.html Quote Atmospheric Science Program at UW-MadisonIntern at NBC26 in Green BayCertified skywarn spotterHead forecaster and editor at www.midwestweather.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 The NW trend is my friend... until it's not. Hoping for a small shift south but that's unlikely. Early and late season storms always hold surprises. I'll post reports from central Wisconsin. Sounds good! Looking for to your reports. I think you're in a good spot to see around 10". Trying to understand why MKX is mentioning 1-2" for SE WI... I think they might expect some snow to break out with the Arctic front. It happened last November on 11/12. Or they expect more backlash snow to get wrapped around. Not entirely sure on that call. 12z EURO Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 Regular GFS and the New GFS Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 This is exactly why you never want to be in the bullseye 3-4 days out. Usually never works out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 It looks like this system on Tuesday wants to wrap up and almost go neg tilt. I was watching for that to happen with this system and instead of holding back that energy like the Euro was showing days ago, it comes out, phases and goes neg tilt and that is why your seeing these impressive snow amounts in the Northwoods. Same thing goes for next weekends system. 12z Euro is holding back the energy in the Rockies/4 corners region and bringing some overruning snows into western KS/NE but never ejects out completely. It makes sense for it to come out since the first arctic front would have gone by and the suppressing HP would move onto the east already before the next one hits. The part of the pattern that may suppress the system is that another piece of the PV digs farther south into the Upper Lakes next weekend. If we have snow on the ground, high temps in the Teens are possible from I-80 north by next Tuesday. Euro showing low 20's now. Amazing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 18z NAM is even more NW and doesn't give GB hardly any snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 This is the best the nam has developed the backside of the storm however Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 What first looked like days ago where it was an initial wave that was ejected out ahead of the main system, is looking more and more like this system phases and goes neg tilt in the Lakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2014 Report Share Posted November 10, 2014 Just looked at the GGEM and it still has that second wave. Really close to catching some snow around here at 54 hours. Madison, Janesville, and even Waukesha County might picked up more than a dusting. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 10, 2014 Report Share Posted November 10, 2014 Just my observation but sure seems like the temps right now are cold further south than expected. Not saying it makes a difference for me but I bet heaviest snow is a little south of the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2014 Report Share Posted November 10, 2014 Just my observation but sure seems like the temps right now are cold further south than expected. Not saying it makes a difference for me but I bet heaviest snow is a little south of the models. Yeah - good observation. It does seem that way. Shallow cold air working it way into central WI for sure. Northern Iowa too. Front looks further south than it should be. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 10, 2014 Report Share Posted November 10, 2014 Oh yeah and the bears still suck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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