Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

[Money]

Regarding the GFS parallel, I am pretty sure it's just an error on the map. If you look at the 540 thickness it's plenty of cold enough for snow where it show it raining. The accumulation map looks pretty right on though from where the rain/snow should be.

[james1976]

Regarding the GFS parallel, I am pretty sure it's just an error on the map. If you look at the 540 thickness it's plenty of cold enough for snow where it show it raining. The accumulation map looks pretty right on though from where the rain/snow should be.

that and no other model is showing precip issues, that i know of.

[Scott26]

Regarding the GFS parallel, I am pretty sure it's just an error on the map. If you look at the 540 thickness it's plenty of cold enough for snow where it show it raining. The accumulation map looks pretty right on though from where the rain/snow should be.

Yup, the 540 thickness line is well south of the heaviest precipitation. There is clearly something wrong with the algorithm.

[Scott26]

If you really wanted to extrapolate the 00Z NAM it will likely end up taking the SLP right through NE IL. Pretty similar to the Euro actually. Would be a good track for Northern Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

[Money]

Liking the Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin/Michigan area for the heaviest snow right now. Seems like every model is pointing to that direction. Let's see if that continues tonight. 

[Money]

SREF is pointing to a euro/ggem type solution as well based on where the snowfall maps are lining up.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2014110621&id=SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_

[james1976]

NAM didnt do NAM-like things like i figured it would. However, the storm is just getting going at the end of the run. Tomorrow it should show the storm.

[Geos]

The baroclinic zone with this system is going to be pretty sharp. Kind of surprised at the NAM.

 

One thing about this system, I don't think it's going to hook really. Track should be fairly west to east.

[Tom]

Hey Guys, doesn't it seem like we are missing something here at the forum???  It's been about 4 months since Dominic Rocco passed away and its def going to feel a little different this year without him.  That guy used to stay up till 4:00 or 5:00am watching the GFS/NAM come in.  He sure was dedicated and loved tracking snow storms.   I'm sure he'll be watching down on us and hoping everyone gets their fair share of snow this season.  Miss you Dominic!

[james1976]

I was thinking today actually about how much Dominic loved winter storms. Maybe he will be looking down and helping all of us get dumped on early next week. Cheers to him!

[james1976]

Watching NBA TV, Celtics-Pistons '87 Finals gm 7 while waiting for GFS to load. Gotta love this time of year.

[Money]

Had no idea about Dominic. I've been away from this forum most of the summer/fall. Sucks to see such a great person leave too soon, but God has a reason for everything that happens to us. 

[clintbeed1993]

Hey Guys, doesn't it seem like we are missing something here at the forum???  It's been about 4 months since Dominic Rocco passed away and its def going to feel a little different this year without him.  That guy used to stay up till 4:00 or 5:00am watching the GFS/NAM come in.  He sure was dedicated and loved tracking snow storms.   I'm sure he'll be watching down on us and hoping everyone gets their fair share of snow this season.  Miss you Dominic!

 

I was completely unaware that he passed away!  I did notice his absence though.  That is so sad   What happened to him and when?

[Tony]

I had no idea. This is so sad to hear. He will be truely missed.

[james1976]

Tom posted about it this past summer. Yes, very sad. He was on here every day and was very much into winter storms. 

[Scott26]

I didn't know about Dominic either. That is extremely sad and he was such a great poster. RIP

[Geos]

Yes it is a bit different around here without Dominic! Whenever there was significant snow system approaching he would catch every model run it seemed! He'd post in the middle of the night and then be up in time for the 12z runs! I don't know where he mustered that energy - especially doing that several days in a row.

[Tom]

Dominick passed away on July 31st.  I don't know exactly what the reason was for his death but I suspect it was health related.  I chatted with him on FB often and towards the end of Winter/early Spring he was rarely online.  He had mentioned briefly to me around April or so that he was at the hospital often and was real sick but never told me what was happening.  Dominic was a great poster, always excited and pumped when winter season hit.  Last year he raved about how he would never forget that epic 2013-14 season.  At least he enjoyed one of the most memorable winters in Chicago's history before he left us.  Now, I hope he shines down on us and can deliver a repeat!  RIP Dominic!

[Money]

0z GFS coming in more amped up so far through 84.

[The Snowman]

Yeah, that's horrible about Dominic. Great guy, will definitely be missed.

[Money]

tad north and a tad more amped up. Looks like S. MN/N. IA into S. WI gets hit pretty good

[Tom]

00z GFS...coming in juicier and showing a nice warning type snow band...

[Madtown]

Lock that in

[Money]

Lock that in

 

We are in really good shape imo. The arctic air should keep it so it doesn't cut too much. 

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

[james1976]

Amazing run AGAIN. Im amazed at the the consistency of the track that GFS is showing. And each run seems to get a bit juicier. Still a few days away. This is getting fun.

[Tom]

We are in really good shape imo. The arctic air should keep it so it doesn't cut too much. 

Yup, S/C WI is in a sweet spot for this one, so is N IA....looks like the snow comes in early afternoon and lasts through the night.  Rush hour is going to be a mess esp with the first snowstorm of the season.

[Scott26]

The SLP got down to 1000 mb that run. Definitely was more amped and corrected north a bit. This track looks locked and loaded IMO. Still some time to shift a bit, but the model consensus is pretty clear.

[james1976]

If it drops a bit south it will give our Chicago friends some love. I really like the west-east track. Get our Nebraska friends involved too. Southern Wisco and MI. Dominick, make your presence felt!

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_asnow_us_17.png

[Tom]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

This run is looking different for sure, check out the placement of the ULL near Ontario, its farther west and now the system digs farther south....hmmm, starting to see the corrections....we'll see how the rest of the 00z runs go.

[bud2380]

It doesn't look great for us down in the Iowa city/Cedar Rapids area. But I'm very used to being just a bit too far south. It's amazing how consistently storms track just a bit north of here. Gfs gives me an inch or two, which for November is actually not bad

[Money]

Total snowfall this run:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png

[The Snowman]

This run is looking different for sure, check out the placement of the ULL near Ontario, its farther west and now the system digs farther south....hmmm, starting to see the corrections....we'll see how the rest of the 00z runs go.

Good points brought up here. GFS has a bias to be too progressive at times, in addition to being too slow with Arctic fronts. Will it happen and correct south? Who knows, but something to ponder for now.

[clintbeed1993]

^{_{Hey Tom, I have a question.  Why is the snow so far to the north of the main energy?  The low placement seems good for Nebraska to get good snow but the snow is all up in South Dakota.  I'm a bit confused.}}

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

[Scott26]

Total snowfall this run:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png

The track looks similar to the Operational GFS, but somehow the precip is more expansive southward.

[Money]

1052 H moving into the U.S. is insane. 

[Geos]

I could live with the last few OP GFS run. Looks like about 2" here on this run.

 

ULL is a bit west for sure on this run. Looking at the track itself, it resembles a Clipper on steroids! lol