February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

I agree with you Tony, we will get a short break next week, but there are signs the pattern gets active again.  Nonetheless, February will be a stormy month around these parts and I'm hoping there will be another "share the wealth" type system from the Plains into the Lakes.

[Tom]

Waiting for the official high at ORD, but may not crack 4F for the day!  That's really impressive since it dipped to a low of 0F.  The clouds last night helped insulated the atmosphere otherwise low's would have been subzero.  Not the case tonight, temps will crash I think double digits subzero.  Even with a higher sun angle, fresh deep snow pack and arctic air temps not rising much throughout the day. 

[East Dubzz]

Waiting for the official high at ORD, but may not crack 4F for the day!  That's really impressive since it dipped to a low of 0F.  The clouds last night helped insulated the atmosphere otherwise low's would have been subzero.  Not the case tonight, temps will crash I think double digits subzero.  Even with a higher sun angle, fresh deep snow pack and arctic air temps not rising much throughout the day.

 

Yup, got down to -11 last night, was supposed to get up to 6 today, but only at 1 above currently. Forecast is -10 tonight, will be interesting to see what we get to tonight.

[Geos]

CAA definitely stronger today than it was during the last blast of cold air. Was about 9 or 10° at UGN around midnight.

[Tom]

The snowpack is rather deep in MO/KS/S IL and if it continues to build, it will be rather difficult to get any warm spells to stick around.  Down in the southern Plains the sun angle is much higher so they may see warm ups, but its not until March where it starts to become a problem up this way.

[winterfreak]

Yeah got down to -5 despite some cloud cover. Currently sitting at 10 with a windchill beliw zero. Hopefully we can get one more storm before the thaw gets here.

[East Dubzz]

Hit 1 degree at 3 o'clock and back down to 0 at 4. Interesting, usually the DVN has underdone the high temps for cold days like this. They were 5 degrees too high this time.

[6789]

LOT going with a WCA, predicted low of -11 tonight. 

[East Dubzz]

Welp... Temp just took a 5 degree drop between 6 and 7 o'clock. Down to -6, wind chill -22. I knew the DVN should have started the Wind Chill Advisory before midnight.

[midwest buildit]

well. I would say my snowpack is doing well. Would not be surprised to find some 20"+ amounts. But i will have to guess cause im not going out there and ruining the beauty of it. I know there is at least 20" cause i built that bench to the right of the firepit and i know the seat is at 19-20" and i cant see it. That's a patio table to the left of the pit. Not much more to get the snow to the bottom of it..

[Tom]

^ Nice pics!  Let's add some more snow this Saturday and keep this snow pack around thru the end of the month...heck, lets let it ride into March!  Speaking of March, CFSv2 nailed the Mar/April outlook last year while every other model missed it.  CFSv2 has had a bias of being too warm for their monthly outlooks, but then correcting its colder as we get closer to the targeted month.  Here is the current outlook for March and its showing a cold central and NW CONUS.  Let's see if by the end of this month it trends even colder as it has been doing all winter long.  Repeat of last year???  Probably not as intense, but signaling a cold March in store.

 

 

 

 

[Scott26]

-2 with a -18 WC. My points says temps will bottom out to -8 tonight. Will be interesting if it will get that cold.

[dubuque473]

Welp... Temp just took a 5 degree drop between 6 and 7 o'clock. Down to -6, wind chill -22. I knew the DVN should have started the Wind Chill Advisory before midnight.

 

Looks like they changed it to 9pm

[East Dubzz]

Looks like they changed it to 9pm

Yeah looks like it may actually be in effect now. Makes sense. I see the winds are out of the SW right now, they were supposed to be out of the west. Wonder what that's about and if it will keep up. Could moderate temps. If not, we could easily get -10 or lower tonight.

[Geos]

I think the region will have a thaw out like the one we had after the first cold outbreak in January, but it will host temperatures a bit higher due to it being later in the winter.

 

Someone is going to end up being wrong with the long range forecast. I believe JB has been lucky this winter. Previous winters he hasn't been so lucky at accurately predicting. Changes are happening in the Pacific and in what form it will effect this region is still to be seen. You can bet the models will be flip flopping before the pattern does occur though. - including the CFS.

 

DVN still sticking to their guns regarding a change in the pattern. No reason to doubt them. They got the first part right... it's raining in California!

 

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Skilling has a 30° high in his forecast! 

[East Dubzz]

I think the region will have a thaw out like the one we had after the first cold outbreak in January, but it will host temperatures a bit higher due to it being later in the winter.

 

Someone is going to end up being wrong with the long range forecast. I believe JB has been lucky this winter. Previous winters he hasn't been so lucky at accurately predicting. Changes are happening in the Pacific and in what form it will effect this region is still to be seen. You can bet the models will be flip flopping before the pattern does occur though. - including the CFS.

 

DVN still sticking to their guns regarding a change in the pattern. No reason to doubt them. They got the first part right... it's raining in California!

JB likes to predict extremes. Luckily, for him, that has actually panned out a lot this year. It's not always like that, though. At some point this pattern is going to break. I just don't think it can carry on all winter. And the DVN sites the Pacific as part of their reason to believe in a pattern shift, and I will take that over any model at this point. Number one rule in meteorology is to look at what's going on around you before anything else. Come on, I really hope the DVN is right. These nights well below zero suck!!

[Geos]

JB likes to predict extremes. Luckily, for him, that has actually panned out a lot this year. It's not always like that, though. At some point this pattern is going to break. I just don't think it can carry on all winter. And the DVN sites the Pacific as part of their reason to believe in a pattern shift, and I will take that over any model at this point. Number one rule in meteorology is to look at what's going on around you before anything else. Come on, I really hope the DVN is right. These nights well below zero suck!!

 

This pattern has over stayed it's welcome and everyone I talk to wants it to end. I have never seen a winter pattern last the whole winter. I realize now that I value those warm ups and thaw outs we get in a typical winter. Luckily it looks pretty dry next week... I'm don't know where I would put another 6"+ of snow.

The Pacific jet holds the key to what's going to happen. +NAO, neutral/+ AO, and near neutral PNA would flood the nation with Pacific air as well as southern Canada.

[Tom]

Large bodies of water control the weather patterns around the globe and the Pacific is one of them.  I can see the Pacific is entering a pattern change and it also will help out the west supplying them with moisture.  Don't forget about the NAO/AO, global models are arguing there may be some blocking developing as it did late last winter into early Spring.  If that does develop, the change in the Pacific won't affect our region as much as others and I believe it will still be cold.  However, the storm track may change and others may reap the rewards and get dumped on with significant precip laden systems.  Joseph D Aleo has done a lot of research regarding low geomagnetic cycles (as we are currently in) and how they typically produce blocking late winter into early spring (as it did last year).   Last year was a very rare event to have such cold temps last well into Spring as we had a major SSW event that helping with the blocking (especially record negative territory on the AO).  I don't expect that to happen this year but possibly modest blocking.  It will be interesting to see how this evolves and I'm sure everyone has their opinion, but my 2 cents says it will last into March (if we get that blocking to develop).

[East Dubzz]

This pattern has over stayed it's welcome and everyone I talk to wants it to end. I have never seen a winter pattern last the whole winter. I realize now that I value those warm ups and thaw outs we get in a typical winter. Luckily it looks pretty dry next week... I'm don't know where I would put another 6"+ of snow.

The Pacific jet holds the key to what's going to happen. +NAO, neutral/+ AO, and near neutral PNA would flood the nation with Pacific air as well as southern Canada.

Anything to make the weather mild as least. Highs in the 30s sounds amazing right now after what this winter has been like. Sounds like spring. I've been saying I want a pattern change to a more mild pattern, melt a little snow, have a big storm (I want the melting so we have a place to put it), and then spring can come! This winter has taken a toll on a lot of people, including myself.

[East Dubzz]

Oh, and I just saw this tweet..

 

@KWWLSchnack: There has been at least 1" of snow on the ground in #Dubuque since December 9th.

[Tom]

In Europe, the last 4 years have been extremely brutal and winters across the pond started in late November and lasted well into March.  I know that for a fact bc my relatives in Poland and eastern Europe are praising how warm it has been this year compared to what they have endured the last 4-5 years in a row.  Some articles have floated around that Europe was entering a "mini Ice Age."  It's now America's turn as mother nature Loves to balance global weather patterns out.  I would not be surprised, in fact, I can see next winter being brutal again.

[Geos]

60 days of straight snow cover here. 61 total. 70 days is pretty much guaranteed now, unless something freaky happens late next week. I wouldn't bet on anything past 75 at this point.

[dubuque473]

Curious to see if flooding problems arise since there has been no melting since the snow began..

[Tom]

March coming in like a Lion this Year????  I don't even want to show you how cold the CFSv2 has March this run...you probably won't want to believe it.  It had 1 warm run yesterday, the following are down right cold and most runs average out to lots of moisture in the Central/Eastern CONUS and below normal temps.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Curious to see if flooding problems arise since there has been no melting since the snow began..

With all the snow up north as well, we're definitely gonna be seeing some flooding this year. Hope it isn't too bad, but if we keep adding on the snow like this without melting, who knows.

[james1976]

Ill never forget MAY 2nd, 2013 we had 9" of snow. It was crazy. So, you just never know how long winter will last. I, for one, am loving the snow and cold (maybe im crazy) and I want more snow. Still haven't had that big storm yet but I'll take these 1-3ers. It's better than no snow.

GFS hinting at major storm in the 2 week frame. Way out there but maybe it is part of the LRC??

[winterfreak]

Yeah that storm showing up after Valentine's day definately fits into the LRC. Still a ways off but you never know.

[Sleather]

Ill never forget MAY 2nd, 2013 we had 9" of snow. It was crazy. So, you just never know how long winter will last. I, for one, am loving the snow and cold (maybe im crazy) and I want more snow. Still haven't had that big storm yet but I'll take these 1-3ers. It's better than no snow.

 

GFS hinting at major storm in the 2 week frame. Way out there but maybe it is part of the LRC??

Yeah, I've been noticing just after Valentines and then again around the 20th.... But, the temps will be starting to warm up by late Feb (maybe!)

[jaster220]

In Europe, the last 4 years have been extremely brutal and winters across the pond started in late November and lasted well into March.  I know that for a fact bc my relatives in Poland and eastern Europe are praising how warm it has been this year compared to what they have endured the last 4-5 years in a row.  Some articles have floated around that Europe was entering a "mini Ice Age."  It's now America's turn as mother nature Loves to balance global weather patterns out.  I would not be surprised, in fact, I can see next winter being brutal again.

 

Tom, nice observations. I too have been thinking about the winters over there and my sister-in-law in Russia (Europe side) is missing the snow this winter. Seen a couple pic's from my wife's girl friend from last March (I think it was March anyways) and their snow OTG looked just like S. Michigan does right now. Tons of snow in comparison to "normal". 

 

Before last summer, we had about (3) hot years in a row, so I share your concerns about the potential of Ma Nature balancing us out with a string of below normal temps maybe during winter. Similar to '76-'79 era for this region. It's happened before, though this winter, much like the spring/summer of 2012 may be writing the new definition of extremes, at least where Southern Michigan is concerned. On our local wx forum, we're calling what this winter is doing "uncharted territory", especially for Detroit and SEMI. Been even more epic there!

 

Another similar irony is the lack of snow in Sochi for the Olympics right on the heals of such cold/snowy winters. Sound familiar? Think Lake Placid circa 1980..

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Is it too much to ask for just one calm day around freezing? That would be nice, because we could still keep some of the snowcover, but it would feel mighty comfortable.

[dubuque473]

Tom, nice observations. I too have been thinking about the winters over there and my sister-in-law in Russia (Europe side) is missing the snow this winter. Seen a couple pic's from my wife's girl friend from last March (I think it was March anyways) and their snow OTG looked just like S. Michigan does right now. Tons of snow in comparison to "normal". 

 

Before last summer, we had about (3) hot years in a row, so I share your concerns about the potential of Ma Nature balancing us out with a string of below normal temps maybe during winter. Similar to '76-'79 era for this region. It's happened before, though this winter, much like the spring/summer of 2012 may be writing the new definition of extremes, at least where Southern Michigan is concerned. On our local wx forum, we're calling what this winter is doing "uncharted territory", especially for Detroit and SEMI. Been even more epic there!

 

Another similar irony is the lack of snow in Sochi for the Olympics right on the heals of such cold/snowy winters. Sound familiar? Think Lake Placid circa 1980..

Been to Sochi in 2002, it is surprising they do not have enough snow at the elevations. I remember the palm trees well at the Black Sea level though..

[Niko]

Anyone notice how mild Sochi is? Dang!!

[Tom]

^Indeed, Europe is having our version of 2011-2012 Winter...Mother Nature balancing itself out.  Remember how the Global Warming activists were hammering down how warm it was that winter and blaming Global Warming???  What do they have to say about the winter this year????  So sick of hearing Global Warming this, Global Warming that.

[Geos]

Up to 12° here. Cold, but bright and sunny again.

[Money]

^ Nice pics!  Let's add some more snow this Saturday and keep this snow pack around thru the end of the month...heck, lets let it ride into March!  Speaking of March, CFSv2 nailed the Mar/April outlook last year while every other model missed it.  CFSv2 has had a bias of being too warm for their monthly outlooks, but then correcting its colder as we get closer to the targeted month.  Here is the current outlook for March and its showing a cold central and NW CONUS.  Let's see if by the end of this month it trends even colder as it has been doing all winter long.  Repeat of last year???  Probably not as intense, but signaling a cold March in store.

 

No, let's not.

[East Dubzz]

Got down to -12 here last night, wind chill -30 again... Weird.. It got down to -6 at 7, then by midnight it actually rose to 1 degree because cloud cover came through, but then it cleared and dropped rapidly down to -12.

 

And after the snow this weekend, another cold shot similar to that one. Man, this crap has got to end!!

[Sciascia]

Apparently the Euro had a 987mb system just south of IND for next Saturday. Just one run, but with nothing really beyond the minor event Saturday, worth seeing if it will spring up again.

[Tom]

It sure does, but its the only model showing it ATM.  It buries N MO, N/C IL, N/C IN, S MI with 1-2 Feet of snow.

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

this needs to be verified before thursday of next week.

[tim the weatherman]

if this goes negative tilt that means it could go northwest shift with a thundersnow event.