Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Model mayhem. Should have a better idea by 12z runs. One would obviously side with the euro/gfs based on track record GFS is about 10 MB stronger than the Euro at HR 48 so even they differ somewhat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is about 10 MB stronger than the Euro at HR 48 so even they differ somewhat. That is more than a minor discrepancy lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Model mayhem. Should have a better idea by 12z runs. One would obviously side with the euro/gfs based on track record Then again the NAM is often better with these strong low/bombogenesis situations, especially since it may trend NW at the last minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 HRW-NMM sim radar: 46: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_046_sim_radar.gif HR 48 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_048_sim_radar.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 HRW-ARW HR 46 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_046_sim_radar.gifHR 48 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_048_sim_radar.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 HRW-NMM sim radar: 46: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_046_sim_radar.gif HR 48 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_048_sim_radar.gif Is that some lake enhancement with the second green shade in SE Wisconsin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 The southern vort should completely out of mexico at 12z correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 So now we have the NMM and ARW siding with the EURO/GFS/pGFS. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Is that some lake enhancement with the second green shade in SE Wisconsin?Winds will be out of the WNW by then... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tracking these complex systems makes it all that exciting. I'm still not sold on the Euro and GFS. Smart thing to do is wait for the 12z high rez models to come in tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looking at it more closely other than where they place the snow band the euro and the really do have a lot of large differences as has already been alluded to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 it looks like most areas switch over to snow by about 18z Monday (HR 42) Here is the sim radar at HR 43 and 44 for each: HR 43 (ARW) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_043_sim_radar.gif HR 45 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_045_sim_radar.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tracking these complex systems makes it all that exciting. I'm still not sold on the Euro and GFS. Smart thing to do is wait for the 12z high rez models to come in tomorrow. Yup. Love tracking these things. Who's staying up for the 6z NAM/SREF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 The defo bands with these type of systems can be rather impressive and you can get some 30dbz snowfall rates. Yup. Love tracking these things. Who's staying up for the 6z NAM/SREF?LOL, I'm crashing out right after the Euro fully loads. I'm beat bud, been on my feet since Noon putting up Christmas lights and going from store to store. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yup. Love tracking these things. Who's staying up for the 6z NAM/SREF? Not me, must get sleep tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 The defo bands with these type of systems can be rather impressive and you can get some 30dbz snowfall rates. LOL, I'm crashing out right after the Euro fully loads. I'm beat bud, been on my feet since Noon putting up Christmas lights and going from store to store. Excuses. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Things are getting really exciting, but I want to finish putting up lights in the morning. So the 6z runs can wait to be seen. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Still significant differences between the nam and gfs on the 6z run. Nam has a lot more snow into western Wisconsin. Both seem to be latching onto the deformation band in se Iowa into n Illinois, but placement and cutover are still in question. 3z SREF mean dropped to about 4" for Cedar Rapids with a max of 10"' where the 21z run had 3 members over 10" and an average of over 5". DVN afd said they would go with the SREF for now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Oops I must have pulled up the wrong sref plume. Cr still at about a 6" mean. 10 members are above the mean with a max of 12" and a min of 2" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 GB AFD: THE PHASING OF TWO UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE ANINTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT. THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS GIVE THENUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS AND FORECASTERS SOME OF OURBIGGER CHALLENGES. THIS SITUATION IS NO EXCEPTION AS THERE IS AWIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND GFS PHASE THE SYSTEMSTHE LEAST WHILE THE NAM AND GEM ARE SLOWER AND MORE PHASED. THENAM AND GEM ARE FINER SCALE MODELS AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THEEFFECTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BETTER THAN THE OTHERS SO DOES THATGIVE THEM AN ADVANTAGE? MAYBE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SUCH A BIGDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS WE DECIDED IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TOWAIT BEFORE ISSUING ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES OR ADVISORIES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z RGEM HR 36: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 MKE up the amounts to 3-4 inches and said more is possible than that. Their new snowmap: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mkx/wx/File.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 The models I really want to keep an eye on this morning are the nam, hi res nam, sref, and rgem. They all were further nw than the gfs and euro so we'll see if they move or not. Plus they are higher resolution than the gfs and euro, which I like when we are in such close range to the storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Rap is trending south . south of any guidance. The south camp could be scoring the coup here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 18 HR RAP is about as useless as NAM when it's at HR 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 18 HR RAP is about as useless as NAM when it's at HR 84Got to have something to talk about before the all important 12 z runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 MONDAY ONWARD... STILL SEEING SOME NON-TRIVIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECTTO THE DETAILS MONDAY...LIKELY DUE TO THEIR TENDENCY TO STRUGGLEWITH PHASING SYSTEMS. ALL GUIDANCE SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSSTHE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONGWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE BIGGESTDIFFERENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA IS AN INCREASING LARGE CAMPOF MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVE LAGGING BEHIND AND ENHANCING ASCENT IN THE DEFORMATIONZONE ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY THIS POINTTHERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/PARALLEL13KM GFS ALL SHOWING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE AREA.THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND KNOWN ISSUES GUIDANCE HASWITH PHASING SYSTEMS LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BUT HAVEBUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME AND CARRIED A COUPLEINCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. IF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF QPF ENDS UP BEING IN THE BALL PARK OF WHATHAPPENS THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITHSEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONGWINDS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS.FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T FAVOR HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIO SNOWFALL WITHDEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER WARMER THAN -10C...RATHER LARGER AGGREGATEFLAKES WOULD BE FAVORED WITH A WETTER SNOW AND LOWER VSBYS. WILLBEGIN TO ADVERTISE THIS THREAT IN THE HWO BUT FAR TOO EARLY TOCONSIDER ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. IZZIIzzi at NWS Chicago is going with several inches possible and calls this a potential "high impact event." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mean of 6.42 for LSE on the 09z SREF plumes. 5-6 members have 10+. Lowest: 0.08 Highest: 12.29 Chicago: Highest: 4.64Lowest: 0.18Mean: 2.36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 No major changes on the NAM through HR 15. L is in the same spot as 6z just about 1-2 mb stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nam definetly caved on the track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nam definetly caved on the track A little bit. Still about 2 MB stronger than 6z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 A little bit. Still about 2 MB stronger than 6z.Yep nice run for lots of people. Should be a fun nowcast either way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 It looks a lot like the 0z EURO in terms of QPF/snow amounts etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hi res nam has it below 992 by hour 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm definitely a fan of this NAM run. Looks like the consensus is now heaviest in Iowa, Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nam looks awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 8-10 inches for parts of S. WI About 4 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 8-10 inches for parts of S. WI About 4 here.Amazing how far this storm has shifted over the days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 MKE goes from about 2 in on 6z nam to at least 5-6 on 12z. Parts of W. WI go from 8-10 in on 6z nam to about 1-2 in on 12z lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted November 23, 2014 Report Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looking like I am in a good spot if this pans out.Sounds like crazy winds.... Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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