Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 ^^ For future reference - 18Z GDPS -- here is the link- http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=gemglb 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z parallel ECMWF total snow (10:1 ratios) through late Wednesday. Ticks the core of the heaviest snow just a smidge north but otherwise a carbon copy (on the whole) of the operational. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, The Snowman said: 12z parallel ECMWF total snow (10:1 ratios) through late Wednesday. Ticks the core of the heaviest snow just a smidge north but otherwise a carbon copy (on the whole) of the operational. Zoomed-in look for us Nebraska folks, gives Douglas County a little more love. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Sorry to flood the thread with images, but latest OAX thinking is attached; bumped Omaha up to that 4-8" range and highlights the gradient risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 The wonders of automation. Love the FZFG in Atlantic,IA- (likely +SN but it can't "see" it' KAIO 232255Z AUTO 13008G19KT 1/4SM FZFG BKN003 OVC025 M04/M06 A3000 RMK AO2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: ^^ For future reference - 18Z GDPS -- here is the link- http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=gemglb Appreciate it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 37 minutes ago, james1976 said: Nice steady snow up here in the TC with system 1. Still looking like a solid 3-5" for Vadnais Heights. Nothing terribly heavy but it’s steady. This is a decent event. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 18Z CMC holy mother of mary... 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Snowfall 18z cmc 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 40 mm = 1.57 in. as snow Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Could someone post 18z Euro snowfall map? Thanks in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 ^ snow events have been so common here this winter I haven't even had to look up the conversion of MM to inches= just times by .039 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Could someone post 18z Euro snowfall map? Thanks in advance. I will at 6:16pm= or so- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Could someone post 18z Euro snowfall map? Thanks in advance. don't think it's running yet, think it usually starts around 5:45-50 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Feeling comfortable with 4" as a floor in Omaha proper. Taking a look at 15z SREF plumes reveals an interesting component in that there are essentially two camps: one favoring 2-5", and another favoring >12"; the mean isn't exactly a consensus so much as the barren wasteland between the two camps (save for a couple members riding the mean). EPS & GEFS don't have this same kind of two-shoulder view, with a number of members right on the 5-6" mean that they both portray. Will be interested to see how the 21z SREF looks when it comes out in the next couple hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z Euro looks like it's ticked south. Still a doozy for Omaha/Lincoln, but getting a little close for comfort. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z ECMWF tightens the gradient on the north side and ticks south maybe a hair Edit to add Nebraska snow total graphic. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Hoping temps don’t ruin things here in the city! Would love for a good sized snowstorm. Any chance of this happening?! FullSizeRender.mov 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 I think it's probably a good thing to see a tightening gradient and be on the right side of it, but really can't afford any further shift south. 00z tonight will be the most important to watch I believe. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 18z Euro starting to amp back up the totals farther east. Good to see the weakening not as bad as prior runs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 After closer inspection- that a full county shift in West Central Iowa. One more shift like that and it's no bueno. DRY AIR as mentioned. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 6" line in my backyard. Stop teasing me lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 42 minutes ago, The Snowman said: 18z ECMWF tightens the gradient on the north side and ticks south maybe a hair Edit to add Nebraska snow total graphic. Thanks for posting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 38 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Thanks again for posting. I had to run a few errands, now home for the night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Thanks for posting Forgot grizzcoat said he would post, my bad ... got caught up in all the model excitement!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Buy into kuchera or 10:1 win out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, james1976 said: Buy into kuchera or 10:1 win out? I don't expect anything more than 10:1 in my yard. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, The Snowman said: Forgot grizzcoat said he would post, my bad ... got caught up in all the model excitement!! No problem. I appreciate the help of everyone on here. Like a big family. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Freezing drizzle here has made roads treacherous. From local deputy sheriff Twitter page. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Sitting in the 8” slot but not getting my hopes up. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 The HRRR is getting into range. It has the snow hitting a wall just north of Ames to CR. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 SREF still looks good, I think even a slight uptick for Lincoln Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 0z NAM shows Northeast Kansas and Northern Missouri getting hit with ice at the onset. Yuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The HRRR is getting into range. It has the snow hitting a wall just north of Ames to CR. Wouldn't surprise me. These high pressure/dry air scenarios almost always win out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 NAM looking juiced through hour 34. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 I can't complain though if mby is too far north for the Monday system. Im enjoying a nice snow in the TC tonight. Can't win em all. Hopefully these 2 systems deliver the goods to as many of the forum members on here as possible. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Kinda getting raked here for the last hour or so. Adding up quickly. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Really don't trust the NAM much past 39-42 hours -- but at least at those hours it's holding dry air at bay and moved N from 18Z-- still a LONG ways to go in this and that 18Z Euro is in the back of my head.. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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