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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


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Alright folks, I think its time to whip up a thread for our next storm system that is being advertised on the models for this upcoming weekend into the early part of next week.  During the previous 2 LRC cycles, this system was a signature storm and one that produced a lot of precip, esp the 2nd stronger piece that the operational models are flashing.  There is a lot of blocking in place during this period which will make tracking this system interesting.  That's why I believe we are seeing some good runs and bad mixed into the bunch.  With that being said, the ensemble trends are what I'm looking at this point in time and the EPS has been steadfast developing the 2nd wave which fits the LRC quite well.

Let's dive into the data...

00z EPS mean pretty much shows the 1st wave delivering up North and then spreads the mean snow shield farther south.  In fact, I think it did tick S a bit from previous run.  Actually, I just checked and it did quite a bit esp across the lower lakes region since 00z 19th run.

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00z Euro Control...

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I'd like to comment on the LRC and why I see support on the models that the 2nd stronger wave should develop into a widespread system with ample moisture.  Back in LRC cycle #1, it produced a signature storm that had a massive comma shape trowal feature on radar Oct 28th-29th (http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=15&year=2020&month=10&day=28&hour=12&minute=0)

During LRC cycle # 2 it produced a SLP that tracked along a frontal boundary right through the S MW/Lower Lakes region...

Click Image For Station Plots

 

To cap off this post, I am encouraged to see the uptick in moisture from the EPS as it fits this pattern in my opinion...

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This blocking is currently massive! What concerns me is the suppression and that was my main issue from the start (couple of days ago ). Hopefully, it can lift further north, otherwise, it will be a miss (heaviest snow stays south for some peeps on here, including myself). Fingers crossed. Still several more days to track this potential.

 

FWIW: Some of the ensembles show some good hits for SEMI, but some are blah.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I'm squarely in the shaft zone on the GFS.  It's been consistent run after run of having the heavy snow cutoff right along highway 30 in eastern Iowa.  Nearly 5" for CR and only 1.5" in Iowa City.  I live 10 miles south of the eastern Iowa airport, which is where the 4.8" amount is listed and the snow totals drop by about 75% in that distance.  Just nudge south 30 miles GFS, you know you want to.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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GFS is still suppressed and weak with wave 2, more than other models.

Update:  Wave 3 hits Kansas, then dies.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS is on its own with the very suppressed and weak wave 2.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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UK is better a bit farther south for wave 1, but suppressed for wave 2.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Model mayhem at its finest and of course we will pick what's best for our neck of the woods. Liking the Canadian and hoping it has a better physics wrt the blocking that is in place. At least the 1st wave/over running event on Saturday-Sunday looks to lay down a few inches for many in this forum so will have my eyes set on this one first and worry about early next week as we get closer to it.

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I'm hopeful, but it's quite possible I only pick up an inch or two this weekend and then everything else gets suppressed.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro quite a bit north with wave 2 :)

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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My goodness, this is prob the best share the wealth run all season for many of us along and north of I-80...not only that, this is a SLOW moving cutter and very cold temps in place...

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Euro is still pretty weak with wave 1, but I'll gladly take that if it means wave 2 can come north and amp up.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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For N IL peeps, the RN/SN line is to close for comfort at this range so I'm remaining cautiously optimistic at this range.  Here's what I'm thinking about:

1) We have cold air in place 

2) NE wind off the lake which can enhance snowfall lakeside

3) Ideal storm track through C IL 

4) Slow moving, long duration event (24+ hours) 

5) Copious moisture 

6) Almost an identical storm track during LRC cycle #2 which I showed in my first post

 

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

For N IL peeps, the RN/SN line is to close for comfort at this range so I'm remaining cautiously optimistic at this range.  Here's what I'm thinking about:

1) We have cold air in place 

2) NE wind off the lake which can enhance snowfall lakeside

3) Ideal storm track through C IL 

4) Slow moving, long duration event (24+ hours) 

5) Copious moisture 

6) Almost an identical storm track during LRC cycle #2 which I showed in my first post

 

This can only cut so far so actually liking where we sit right now. Expect bumps south in the future as that has been the case most of this winter.

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24 minutes ago, Tony said:

This can only cut so far so actually liking where we sit right now. Expect bumps south in the future as that has been the case most of this winter.

Nice looking storm for sure. Get a little more Gulf moisture into this puppy and we could be in for a serious snowstorm...not saying this run is mediocre by any means but lets go Big on this thing...we are definitely due. 

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12z EPS is a bit farther S with the mean SLP track taking it through S IL/S IN...it's also farther N with the heavy precip shield compared to 00z run last night...trends are certainly becoming our friends for many...for NE IL folks, this is by far one of the best signals all season long for a widespread winter storm....not to mention, but the LEHS signal at this range is eye opening.

 

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z EPS is a bit farther S with the mean SLP track taking it through S IL/S IN...it's also farther N with the heavy precip shield compared to 00z run last night...trends are certainly becoming our friends for many...for NE IL folks, this is by far one of the best signals all season long for a widespread winter storm....not to mention, but the LEHS signal at this range is eye opening.

 

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I did forget about lake enhancement as that is definitely a bonus for our side of the pond.

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Canadian is at least close to the Euro.  GFS at least has some overrunning snow.  This might be the best chance yet for SWMI  to get in on some action this year.   Still not getting my hopes up until I see back to back to back runs of consistency.  GFS being an outlier concerns me.  Will be interesting to see GRR AFD afternoon update. 

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I decided to do a monthly subscription to Pivotal to check out some of their upgraded features.  They have Kuchera maps for the Euro and some local views among other things.  Here is a sample.

 

snku_acc.us_state_ia.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Everything about this winter sucks here.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Even if we end up getting a solid hit, this morning's Euro run is likely the best-case scenario and we won't see any additional runs this good.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Even if we end up getting a solid hit, this morning's Euro run is likely the best-case scenario and we won't see any additional runs this good.

NONE of the GFS ensembles has this scenario.  Wouldn't count on it.  

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^GFS is on it's own on the 12z runs so we shall see which models win out. The Canadian has been showing a farther north scenario for a couple runs now and UK has been nudging slightly north with each run. We shall see. 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220, I think you commented on this storm a few days ago...have you been manifesting on it??

Haha. Yeah was gonna bump my post from December?? About this being the one single LRC event that showed promise back then. Can this go big enough to be meet the 98-99 analog? I'm optimistic about our first plowable snow of the season here and remaining hopeful this could go bigger. I will say that driving into work with my car thermo reading 23F mid-afternoon certainly seems like a significant pattern shift/improvement. Even tomorrow's torch has been muted by about 7-8F from earlier predictions. Not gonna lie, I'm allowing excitement to grow.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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DMX's thoughts--- After the warmth today and to a lesser degree tomorrow, colder temperatures and chances for snow return to the area for the weekend and into early next week. The best chance for accumulating snowfall Saturday resides across the northern half of Iowa and into Minnesota where a few inches may be possible and cause some travel hazards. Additional snowfall may linger into Sunday across the same or similar areas before subsiding. Unfortunately,(why they got be like that)?? additional snowfall chances may be quickly on the heels of the weekend chances with another system potentially working snow and a wintry mix into areas of southern and central Iowa Monday. With these events still a few days out, be sure to watch for forecast updates as details continue to come into better focus! Tab3FileL.png?e43062175bbbd69c4850b34334a5f249

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Skilling briefly showed the LR RPM model out to Tuesday and it had a very similar track as the 12z EPS that went through S IL/S IN. I’ve never seen this model go out that far but interesting to say the least.  Very strong winds associated with that particular model run as well.

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  • Tom changed the title to 1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm
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