1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm

[Grizzcoat]

^^ For future reference - 18Z GDPS -- here is the link- http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=gemglb

[The Snowman]

12z parallel ECMWF total snow (10:1 ratios) through late Wednesday. Ticks the core of the heaviest snow just a smidge north but otherwise a carbon copy (on the whole) of the operational. 

[The Snowman]

Just now, The Snowman said:

12z parallel ECMWF total snow (10:1 ratios) through late Wednesday. Ticks the core of the heaviest snow just a smidge north but otherwise a carbon copy (on the whole) of the operational. 

Zoomed-in look for us Nebraska folks, gives Douglas County a little more love.

[The Snowman]

Sorry to flood the thread with images, but latest OAX thinking is attached; bumped Omaha up to that 4-8" range and highlights the gradient risk.

[Grizzcoat]

The wonders of automation. Love the FZFG in Atlantic,IA- (likely +SN but it can't "see" it'

KAIO 232255Z AUTO 13008G19KT 1/4SM FZFG BKN003 OVC025 M04/M06 A3000 RMK AO2

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^ For future reference - 18Z GDPS -- here is the link- http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=gemglb

Appreciate it. 

[St Paul Storm]

37 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Nice steady snow up here in the TC with system 1. Still looking like a solid 3-5" for Vadnais Heights. 

Nothing terribly heavy but it’s steady. This is a decent event. 

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

18Z CMC  holy mother of mary...

[jcwxguy]

Snowfall 18z cmc

[snowstorm83]

40 mm = 1.57 in. as snow 

[CentralNebWeather]

Could someone post 18z Euro snowfall map?  Thanks in advance. 

[Grizzcoat]

^ snow events have been so common here this winter I haven't even had to look up the conversion of MM to inches= just times by .039

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Could someone post 18z Euro snowfall map?  Thanks in advance. 

I will at 6:16pm= or so-

[snowstorm83]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Could someone post 18z Euro snowfall map?  Thanks in advance. 

don't think it's running yet, think it usually starts around 5:45-50

[The Snowman]

Feeling comfortable with 4" as a floor in Omaha proper. Taking a look at 15z SREF plumes reveals an interesting component in that there are essentially two camps: one favoring 2-5", and another favoring >12"; the mean isn't exactly a consensus so much as the barren wasteland between the two camps (save for a couple members riding the mean). 

EPS & GEFS don't have this same kind of two-shoulder view, with a number of members right on the 5-6" mean that they both portray. Will be interested to see how the 21z SREF looks when it comes out in the next couple hours.

[snowstorm83]

18z Euro looks like it's ticked south. Still a doozy for Omaha/Lincoln, but getting a little close for comfort. 

[The Snowman]

18z ECMWF tightens the gradient on the north side and ticks south maybe a hair

Edit to add Nebraska snow total graphic.

 

[Grizzcoat]

[Jaycee]

Hoping temps don’t ruin things here in the city! Would love for a good sized snowstorm. Any chance of this happening?!

 

[snowstorm83]

I think it's probably a good thing to see a tightening gradient and be on the right side of it, but really can't afford any further shift south. 00z tonight will be the most important to watch I believe. 

[Tony]

19 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

18z Euro starting to amp back up the totals farther east. Good to see the weakening not as bad as prior runs

[Grizzcoat]

After closer inspection- that a full county shift in West Central Iowa. One more shift like that and it's no bueno.  DRY AIR as mentioned.

[james1976]

6" line in my backyard. Stop teasing me lol

[CentralNebWeather]

42 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

18z ECMWF tightens the gradient on the north side and ticks south maybe a hair

Edit to add Nebraska snow total graphic.

 

Thanks for posting 

[CentralNebWeather]

38 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Thanks again for posting. I had to run a few errands, now home for the night. 

[The Snowman]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Thanks for posting 

Forgot grizzcoat said he would post, my bad ... got caught up in all the model excitement!! 

[james1976]

Buy into kuchera or 10:1 win out?

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Buy into kuchera or 10:1 win out?

I don't expect anything more than 10:1 in my yard.

[CentralNebWeather]

11 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Forgot grizzcoat said he would post, my bad ... got caught up in all the model excitement!! 

No problem. I appreciate the help of everyone on here. Like a big family.

[CentralNebWeather]

Freezing drizzle here has made roads treacherous. From local deputy sheriff Twitter page. 

 

[dubuque473]

Sitting in the 8” slot but not getting my hopes up.

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR is getting into range.  It has the snow hitting a wall just north of Ames to CR.

[snowstorm83]

SREF still looks good, I think even a slight uptick for Lincoln 

[CentralNebWeather]

0z NAM shows Northeast Kansas and Northern Missouri getting hit with ice at the onset. Yuck. 

[james1976]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The HRRR is getting into range.  It has the snow hitting a wall just north of Ames to CR.

Wouldn't surprise me. These high pressure/dry air scenarios almost always win out.

[CentralNebWeather]

NAM looking juiced through hour 34. 

[james1976]

I can't complain though if mby is too far north for the Monday system. Im enjoying a nice snow in the TC tonight. Can't win em all. Hopefully these 2 systems deliver the goods to as many of the forum members on here as possible.

[St Paul Storm]

Kinda getting raked here for the last hour or so. Adding up quickly. 

[Grizzcoat]

Really don't trust the NAM much past 39-42 hours -- but at least at those hours it's holding dry air at bay and moved N from 18Z-- still a LONG ways to go in this and that 18Z Euro is in the back of my head..