Niko Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 I never did like cold, snowy Novembers because that usually means a flip in the weather pattern by December and that is what is going to happen. The pattern changes, relaxes to a more zonal flow and it could stay like that for awhile. I prefer to have a mild November and save all the bitter cold and storminess for DJ and possibly F. Now, that doesn't mean this December will be a mild one, but guess what, the first couple of days in December this year, mild air dominates. Lets see how December will unfold and how long it will remain mild. Also, on that storm that is predicted somewhere between the 4th and 7th of Dec., rain is in my forecast, so that goes to show you that there will be no cold air around. Things can change by then, we'll see. I did some research on two cities and these are the results after a cold November:http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2014/11/will_the_november_cold_lead_to.html http://www.roanoke.com/weather/columns_and_blogs/columns/weather_journal/weather-journal-cold-novembers-don-t-always-lead-to-cold/article_c4d64c60-9d0f-5b78-a8b3-9d2dc1f51b0e.html This statement from the second article above: History proves you can’t really extrapolate much about the winter ahead just from what happens in November. It does at least suggest, though, that there is a coin’s-flip chance of having a long mild period at some point. Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/11/skilfeat112514-884x1024.jpg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 06z GFS now showing a much different look for this system and not having the storm cut way up north through the High Plains. With the models now starting to respond to the -AO developing, a system tracking through the central CONUS seems more reasonable. FWIW, 00z Euro now showing more troughiness as we open up December. It's not surprising since its AO forecast is showing more blocking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 NWS GRB morning disco. RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHSIN THE 30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENSTO LOWER 20S. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMUP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWERMAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE ISA SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAKSYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 06z GFS now showing a much different look for this system and not having the storm cut way up north through the High Plains. With the models now starting to respond to the -AO developing, a system tracking through the central CONUS seems more reasonable. FWIW, 00z Euro now showing more troughiness as we open up December. It's not surprising since its AO forecast is showing more blocking.that wouls put the storm track across our area so that would put thesnow on the northren side and the mix along i70 and the rain everything else on the eastside and we might have the "b"word. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 I am so looking forward to a monster snowstorm in my forecast. C'mon December.....give us all on this forum somthing to look forward too. Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 My average high will be dropping below 32 shortly. One thing I try to keep in mind is that above normal temps don't always mean above freezing temps. WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looks like a pattern realignment is coming. The MJO is projected to move through phases 3-6 which creates a warmer December. Also the PNA looks too flip to negative which also signals warmer air. It's something too keep an eye on the next couple weeks. Maybe above normal temps for the first half! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looks like a pattern realignment is coming. The MJO is projected to move through phases 3-6 which creates a warmer December. Also the PNA looks too flip to negative which also signals warmer air. It's something too keep an eye on the next couple weeks. Maybe above normal temps for the first half!It's a temporary spike negative before turning back positive. Even though the MJO is heading towards it's "warm" phases in December, opposing variables like a -AO and Arctic HP/PV to the north are pushing the colder air farther south out of Canada. The northern tier of the lower 48 will most likely escape a blow torch like the models were showing about a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Will El Nino pay a visit this winter???!!! Hmmmm http://www.climatecentral.org/news/brian-kahn-explains-the-developing-el-nino-18048?gclid=CN6ZmJLOmMICFQmtaQodmp4A9A Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Liking the looks of the 06Z GFS or at least the signal it is sending. Thanks for the info Tom and tim the weatherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 12z is continuing the trend in developing that storm farther south (dec 3rd storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 It's a temporary spike negative before turning back positive. Even though the MJO is heading towards it's "warm" phases in December, opposing variables like a -AO and Arctic HP/PV to the north are pushing the colder air farther south out of Canada. The northern tier of the lower 48 will most likely escape a blow torch like the models were showing about a week ago.it looks like the mjo is headed towards phase 8 so that means we will have a cold instead of a warm december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Maybe cold the last part of December but the first 10 or so will average normal or above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS with 6-10 inches of snow from Minnesota/N. IA into souther/central WI for the 3rd-5th. Low goes from S.KS/N. OK into MO and just south of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 As of right now it looks like a decent storm brewing for 1st week of December but it also looks a little warm so hopefully it trends the other way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 could geos or tom give an update on the ao forecast thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Ok, iFred! Looking at the 12z GFS through 192 hours... looks to stay normal to below normal the whole time north of I-80. Not sure where WGN met's are getting upper 40s from this weekend, because it looks more like upper 30s instead. Cold air really presses into that storm on the 3-4th. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_216_1000_500_thick.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_204_1000_500_thick.gifhours 216 and 228http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_228_1000_500_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_216_1000_500_thick.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_204_1000_500_thick.gifhours 216 and 228http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_228_1000_500_thick.gif Cold rain and 35F it looks like, at least during the daytime hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Ok, iFred! Looking at the 12z GFS through 192 hours... looks to stay normal to below normal the whole time north of I-80. Not sure where WGN met's are getting upper 40s from this weekend, because it looks more like upper 30s instead. Cold air really presses into that storm on the 3-4th.Geos, Are you referring to this weekend? My grid is even showing mid 40's through next week. Are you thinking it won't even hit 40 on Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 That was 6z. Here's 12z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_177_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Cold rain and 35F it looks like, at least during the daytime hours. 12z GFS is suggesting ice in southern WI with this storm system. Strong northerly flow on the flip side of the front. For those wanting to see the AO forecast. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 12z GGEM: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 12z GFS is suggesting ice in southern WI with this storm system. Strong northerly flow on the flip side of the front. For those wanting to see the AO forecast. ecmwf_ao_bias (1).png gfs_ao_bias.png I think I'd rather have rain lol, but it's a tough decision if there is any snow cover left. If not, give me rain over ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 GGEM is about a 6-10" snowfall from southeast Iowa to Toronto on that run. (For the medium range storm). Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 was just looking at gary lezak's premilary winter forecast and he said that we could have a few big ones this winter and it could be for the lower greatlakes because the artic oscillation goes negative so that means stronger winterstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Geos, Are you referring to this weekend? My grid is even showing mid 40's through next week. Are you thinking it won't even hit 40 on Saturday?Saturday will be well into the 40s, possibly touching 50. Sunday looks a bit tricky though. Could very well stay in the 30s, or be well into the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 I think I'd rather have rain lol, but it's a tough decision if there is any snow cover left. If not, give me rain over ice.Ice is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Saturday will be well into the 40s, possibly touching 50. Sunday looks a bit tricky though. Could very well stay in the 30s, or be well into the 40s. The new GFS is suggesting the warm front will stall south of I-80, hence the 30s it is showing across the metro. Now the parallel GFS is showing a mild Saturday night into Sunday morning, before temps crash into the teens later! 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looks like it could be a rain freezing rain to a little snow for iowa and Illinois. What's the euro showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 The new GFS is suggesting the warm front will stall south of I-80, hence the 30s it is showing across the metro. Now the parallel GFS is showing a mild Saturday night into Sunday morning, before temps crash into the teens later!this is good news geos and i think that the freezing rain and rain will stay well south of i 80 for next week and we will get mainly snow and it could be heavy too and the "b"word too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Could you get the b word too Tim? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Is this supposed to go negative tilt or have any chance of thundersnow too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Love the b word tim the weatherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Is this supposed to go negative tilt or have any chance of thundersnow too?the way i heard at accuweather fourms that it is positvely tilted storm but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gifhttp://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gifby friday into saturday of nextweek this could turnout to be a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 We could be looking at something big if we get thundersnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Let's hope for a negative tilt and the b word! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 Blizzards around here are quite uncommon. A true blizzard happens maybe once every 6 or 8 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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