December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

Nothing huge, but the snow reaches as far north as S. WI this run. Just need it to trend stronger as it heads NE and not weaker.

 

3-5 in N. MO/C. IL and 1-3 in IA/N. IL

[Tom]

00z GFS...still showing up...

[NEJeremy]

Check out what the CFSv2 is showing down the road.  It has the cold centered in the central CONUS with pronounced ridging along the east coast.  This would create an active storm track from the Plains to the Lakes.  Doesn't this look familiar???  Sure does...just look back what happened in November.  The LRC is def cycling through the pattern.

 

It wasn't an active November Tom. It was cold but not active.

[bud2380]

Gfs keeping things interesting. Will the euro shift north is the gfs off its rocker??

[Geos]

November was more active than this month has! By a long shot too. The pattern was never stagnant in November, although it was drier than normal. The LES belts had the best of both worlds, cold and snowy.

[bud2380]

Parallel gfs much further south than regular gfs

[winterfreak]

Welp nothing at all on the GFS. Maybe the EURO and GFS can meet half way.

[Scott26]

What I'm noticing is that the ULL is a lot more displaced on the GFS than the Euro. So even a track through far southern Illinois into Northern Kentucky brings the heaviest precip in the cold sector well North. I would probably favor the Euro solution right now, but it's not like the ensemble support was fantastic or anything either. There is a lot to sort out and we will get a better picture once this current system is out of the way.

[Geos]

Well let's see what the GGEM says. I think if the baroclinic zone was stronger, you'd see a stronger system with at least some phasing present.

[Tom]

It wasn't an active November Tom. It was cold but not active.

Your neck of the woods was just cold, but parts of the Plains to the Lakes had their share of storminess.  Those CFSv2 maps look very similar to how the cold outbreaks hit back in November.  That's primarily the point I wanted to make anyway.

[Tom]

What I'm noticing is that the ULL is a lot more displaced on the GFS than the Euro. So even a track through far southern Illinois into Northern Kentucky brings the heaviest precip in the cold sector well North. I would probably favor the Euro solution right now, but it's not like the ensemble support was fantastic or anything either. There is a lot to sort out and we will get a better picture once this current system is out of the way.

The GFS is also farther north this run with the SLP cutting through New Mexico and NOT Mexico like the Euro is showing.  Euro has a tendency to dig systems to far south like this.  It's hard not to discount the Euro during this time frame because it usually does pretty good.  If this shifts the energy farther north in the 4 corners from previous runs, then it'll change the game.

[Scott26]

Well let's see what the GGEM says. I think if the baroclinic zone was stronger, you'd see a stronger system with at least some phasing present.

Yup, I don't think models have a good handle of that either. Look at the current storm that is the traversing the region as we speak. It looked like that storm system would track well to the south, but the models had more of a phase as we got closer. I'm not saying it's going to happen with this storm, but I don't see why it's not possible.

[Money]

GGEM is WAY south. Doesn't even have a low pressure system

[Money]

Here is HR 120

 

[bud2380]

Gfs still has a Xmas eve storm but further southeast before it cuts up into ohio.

[Money]

0z GFS with a 977 L over Detroit for the Christmas eve storm. 

[tim the weatherman]

0z GFS with a 977 L over Detroit for the Christmas eve storm. 

so that means the heaviest snow will be over chicago.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

[Tom]

GGEM always seems to have an over powering HP and temps much colder than they turn out.  Nonetheless, it still shows a wave that forms out in the Plains with snows.

[Thundersnow12]

The GFS continues to have runs here and there where it really tries to get this system going on the 19th/20th but can't fully do it. The wave most of the time is an open wave and it's moving quicker. A few runs for a few frames try to close it off at 500mb but it just gets too strung out and can't intensify like we want it to. 

 

The strong WAA via the LLJ in the WCB early on over the plains will be plenty enough to generate a good slug of precip up and over the front to get some snow it looks like in KS/MO as the GFS shows but maintaining any sort of organization as it moves ENE might be tough as the wave just looks to flat with no intensification signals right now. 

 

Several Euro ensemble members were amped up and NW of the op and the ensemble mean so we'll see. 

[Money]

Sup TS?

[The Snowman]

The GFS continues to have runs here and there where it really tries to get this system going on the 19th/20th but can't fully do it. The wave most of the time is an open wave and it's moving quicker. A few runs for a few frames try to close it off at 500mb but it just gets too strung out and can't intensify like we want it to. 

 

The strong WAA via the LLJ in the WCB early on over the plains will be plenty enough to generate a good slug of precip up and over the front to get some snow it looks like in KS/MO as the GFS shows but maintaining any sort of organization as it moves ENE might be tough as the wave just looks to flat with no intensification signals right now. 

 

Several Euro ensemble members were amped up and NW of the op and the ensemble mean so we'll see.

 

Yeah, unfortunate that this thing can't develop as much as we all want it to. Just glancing at 500mb vort maps, watching it essentially glide along the country's midsection... Probably won't see too much more than the 3-5" swath that's been showing up.

 

Whether or not it will actually matter remains to be seen, but perhaps the GFS is being too progressive with the pattern here. NCEP has highlighted this as a bias, among other issues. I'm not holding my breath, but maybe we see a bit more from this system in coming runs.

[Money]

HR 120 EURO: 1001.7 in LA

[Money]

0z euro takes a pretty strong low just to the south of Ohio before a secondary low develops in NC

[GDR]

The 0z looked good for Nebraska. Not so much for iowa and Illinois.

[Snowshoe]

The weather can be summed up in one word that starts with a C and ends in P! 

 

[FV-Mike]

Looks like Lot is keeping the Friday and Saturday system as an option

 

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND NOW THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT NOT UNTIL SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.
 

[gosaints]

The supression call for the next storm is looking better and better

[gosaints]

Back to waiting for la la model land to bring our winter weather

[gosaints]

Minneapolis broke there record high today at 7AM

[GDR]

54 and raining hard here.

[GDR]

I wonder if will see more days above 50 then total snow for December?

[FV-Mike]

I wonder if will see more days above 50 then total snow for December?

I would say not a chance in the Chicago area. Would be surprised to see a high above 40 after Tuesday.

[GDR]

I would say not a chance in the Chicago area. Would be surprised to see a high above 40 after Tuesday.

how much snow have you had in December?

[FV-Mike]

I misinterpreted what you said. For the entire month still think we will have more snow. Accuweather just wrote a story on the 3 storms. Very vague at the moment.

[bud2380]

12z runs not showing much to get excited about

[Tom]

12z runs not showing much to get excited about

12z Euro looking much different for the Christmas Eve storm now.  Instead of holidng back the energy in the 4 corners and diving it into N Mexico, it comes out quicker and tries to phase something along the Appalachians.  Baby steps I guess.

[Tom]

12z Euro...trying to form that Lakes Cutter.  Interesting to see such a powerful storm to the north showing up in N MN on the 24th.

[Tom]

Big step in the right direction....

 

Compare last night's jet stream structure from it's 00z run on 00z 24th...compared to today's run 00z 24th...

[Tom]

I've also noticed the GFS(from time to time) and EURO trying to develop a big system on Christmas Day or just thereafter coming out of the Rockies when there will be plenty cold air around from the Plains and points East.  This system also has some potential to be noteworthy.  Fun times ahead.