December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Yes... it will be perfectly calm all day long.  

 

Very good chance today was more windy than tomorrow will be. 

 

SEA will need to beat a gust of 41 mph. I'm taking the over.

[BLI snowman]

Absolutely. As you and I both pointed out, not unprecedented for the area by any means, but certainly historic.

 

I think the 1980 torch is still the numero uno for midwinter. The 64/60 spread at PDX on Christmas is one for the ages, and the 67 up here a couple days later shows you how long lasting that pattern was.

[Front Ranger]

You called 63 a WEAK record.... It’s a record though.. Was. 

 

Yup, and I explained why it was weak.

 

Wasn't meant as an insult towards BLI, the city of Bellingham, or your family.

[wx_statman]

Is there any sort of precedent for warm temps we saw up north today occurring in the heart of December?

 

There has been a lot of talk about past arctic oubreaks (pre-airport era) lately but I would be interested to hear about some of the epic winter torches of the past as well.

 

December 5, 1939 is a good one:

 

75 at Heppner

74 at Sedro Woolley (state record for December)

72 at Mitchell

72 at Pendleton Experiment Station

66 at Glacier Ranger Station

66 at Bellingham 2N

65 at Bellingham downtown

65 at Seattle Univ of Wash

62 at Abbotsford

[BLI snowman]

You called 63 a WEAK record.... It’s a record though.. Was. 

 

Yeah, "perspective" is clearly a euphemism for downplaying in this case. 

[wx_statman]

I think the 1980 torch is still the numero uno for midwinter. The 64/60 spread at PDX on Christmas is one for the ages, and the 67 up here a couple days later shows you how long lasting that pattern was.

 

You nailed it earlier.

 

December 1917 and 1980 are the top two regional midwinter torches on record.

[Bham_Guy]

SEA will need to beat a gust of 41 mph. I'm taking the over.

 

SEA actually hit 46 mph today.

[Front Ranger]

SEA actually hit 46 mph today.

 

Oh, between the hourly reports then?

[Bham_Guy]

Oh, between the hourly reports then?

 

Yeah, I guess so. I'm going by the daily climate report.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, "perspective" is clearly a euphemism for downplaying in this case. 

 

So I guess calling it historic and impressive isn't enough, I also need to do nothing but gush about how it's just AMAZING, SPECTACULAR, and RECORD-BREAKING, and avoid referencing anything similar historically (even though we had a member ask about if/when we've seen this kind of thing before). 

 

You probably should be careful about referencing 1917 and 1980 like you did, kind of comes across as "downplaying" as well...just a "heads up".

[BLI snowman]

You nailed it earlier.

 

December 1917 and 1980 are the top two regional midwinter torches on record.

 

Both of them had rather lame arctic airmasses later in the winter!

[BLI snowman]

So I guess calling it historic and impressive isn't enough, I also need to do nothing but gush about how it's just AMAZING, SPECTACULAR, and RECORD-BREAKING, and avoid referencing anything similar historically (even though we had a member ask about if/when we've seen this kind of thing before). 

 

You probably should be careful about referencing 1917 and 1980 like you did, kind of comes across as "downplaying" as well...just a "heads up".

 

I think it's simply the context in which you said it. We get a post mentioning a monthly record max high that was tied yesterday and your first response today is "Oh, that's kind of a weak record". Seems like an odd way of looking at it.

 

Of course we shattered that record today, so no more weak record. 

[Front Ranger]

Both of them had rather lame arctic airmasses later in the winter!

 

And then you have January 1940...

[Snow]

The new 00z WRF-GFS 4km shows around 55 knots max wind gust (63.4 mph) for the Willamette Valley as the Sou'Wester heads north up the coastline.

 

http://oi62.tinypic.com/fz9g6s.jpg

[wx_statman]

Both of them had rather lame arctic airmasses later in the winter!

 

Portland did great at the end of January in 1918.

[TT-SEA]

SEA actually hit 46 mph today.

 

 

Definitely will not come close to that during the day tomorrow... strongest winds will be late in the evening through midnight.     And nothing too extreme.

[Front Ranger]

I think it's simply the context in which you said it. We get a post mentioning a monthly record max high that was tied yesterday and your first response today is "Oh, that's kind of a weak record". Seems like an odd way of looking at it.

 

Of course we shattered that record today, so no more weak record. 

 

The context was just that I was looking back at posts from last night I hadn't seen yet, decided to check what the Bellingham station records were for December, and then made that post. I didn't even know at that point the record was broken today.

 

It was just an observation, kind of like when yourself and others on here have pointed out "low hanging fruit" records at times. Given the historical context of December torches, I think I was correct in saying the 63 at BLI was a rather weak monthly record.

 

But hey...what is America without conspiracy theories? Any thoughts on 9/11 people??

[wx_statman]

The context was just that I was looking back at posts from last night I hadn't seen yet, decided to check what the Bellingham station records were for December, and then made that post. I didn't even know at that point the record was broken today.

 

It was just an observation, kind of like when yourself and others on here have pointed out "low hanging fruit" records at times. Given the historical context of December torches, I think I was correct in saying the 63 at BLI was a rather weak monthly record.

 

But hey...what is America without conspiracy theories? Any thoughts on 9/11 people??

 

You actually had a solid post going until that last line.

[BLI snowman]

And then you have January 1940...

 

That was a pretty solidly lame arctic airmass, too. So that's 3/3!

[Front Ranger]

You actually had a solid post going until that last line.

 

I always get in trouble when I jest.

 

But it sounds like you agree the 63 was kinda weak. Alright.

[wx_statman]

I always get in trouble when I jest.

 

But it sounds like you agree the 63 was kinda weak. Alright.

 

Compared to records at Bellingham 2N, it was weak. Its moot now after today's 67 degree reading.

[Front Ranger]

Compared to records at Bellingham 2N, it was weak. Its moot now after today's 67 degree reading.

 

Like I said, made that post before even seeing today's reading.

 

I think we can all agree that my opinion of BLI's old record is a VERY BIG DEAL and a sensitive issue for many. But now moot.

[stuffradio]

Yes... it will be perfectly calm all day long.  

 

Very good chance today was more windy than tomorrow will be. 

I'm getting thunder, gusty winds, and heavy rain here right now. Others in nearby cities are saying they're getting lightning. How's that for calm all day?

[BLI snowman]

The context was just that I was looking back at posts from last night I hadn't seen yet, decided to check what the Bellingham station records were for December, and then made that post. I didn't even know at that point the record was broken today.

 

It was just an observation, kind of like when yourself and others on here have pointed out "low hanging fruit" records at times. Given the historical context of December torches, I think I was correct in saying the 63 at BLI was a rather weak monthly record.

 

But hey...what is America without conspiracy theories? Any thoughts on 9/11 people??

 

So you inadvertently made yourself look really silly. That's actually pretty funny.

[bainbridgekid]

Definitely will not come close to that during the day tomorrow... strongest winds will be late in the evening through midnight.     And nothing too extreme.

WRF shows Seattle seeing 50-55 mph gusts late tomorrow evening.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_wgsfc.31.0000.gif

[Front Ranger]

So you inadvertently made yourself look really silly. That's actually pretty funny.

 

But from a historical perspective, is it really that funny? Time will tell.

 

Looking at satellite, some nice recent developments with that sucker off NorCal. At the risk of extreme silliness, I'm still taking the over for wind gusts at SEA tomorrow. 47 mph before midnight, baby!

[Deweydog]

I wonder if the thermometer at BLI had any idea it was going to bring about such spirited conversation today?

[Snow]

The new 00z MM5-GFS 4 km Soundings shows a nice burst of wind speed from 4pm to 7pm for PDX. At 4pm it shows 45 knots sustained winds at the surface but then check out what happens as the Sou'Wester heads up the Washington coastline. The sustained winds increase to 50 knots at 7pm. I think this is what people call the "poisonous tail" of the bent back occlusion. This could be the period when most experience the strongest winds.

 

http://oi60.tinypic.com/6zvnk4.jpg

http://oi57.tinypic.com/8wjf41.jpg

[Deweydog]

Some schools on the coast are closing for tomorrow.

 

The cold phase sure has changed things out there...

[TT-SEA]

I'm getting thunder, gusty winds, and heavy rain here right now. Others in nearby cities are saying they're getting lightning. How's that for calm all day?

 

 

You people have real trouble with sarcasm... everyone is so wound up.

[wx_statman]

Just noticed Boeing Field hit 69 today. Jesus.

[BLI snowman]

But from a historical perspective, is it really that funny? Time will tell.

 

Looking at satellite, some nice recent developments with that sucker off NorCal. At the risk of extreme silliness, I'm still taking the over for wind gusts at SEA tomorrow. 47 mph before midnight, baby!

 

True, that record may only last a day at this rate!

[Front Ranger]

You people have real trouble with sarcasm... everyone is so wound up.

 

Canuckians?

 

I agree with the wound up part, though. Clearly we all need to tread lightly around here until the next Arctic outbreak.

[Front Ranger]

Just noticed Boeing Field hit 69 today. Jesus.

 

Sexy.

[BLI snowman]

I wonder if the thermometer at BLI had any idea it was going to bring about such spirited conversation today?

 

Dat cool detachment. 

 

The new 00z MM5-GFS 4 km Soundings shows a nice burst of wind speed from 4pm to 7pm for PDX. At 4pm it shows 45 knots sustained winds at the surface but then check out what happens as the Sou'Wester heads up the Washington coastline. The sustained winds increase to 50 knots at 7pm. I think this is what people call the "poisonous tail" of the bent back occlusion. This could be the period when most experience the strongest winds.

 

http://oi60.tinypic.com/6zvnk4.jpg

http://oi57.tinypic.com/8wjf41.jpg

 

That actually shows 25 knots sustained at the lowest level (surface), which seems fairly realistic and means a moderate storm.

[seattleweatherguy]

WRF shows Seattle seeing 50-55 mph gusts late tomorrow evening.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_wgsfc.31.0000.gif

 

I must be dumb or cant read but i though green meant 30 o 35?

[Snow]

Dat cool detachment. 

 

 

That actually shows 25 knots sustained at the lowest level (surface), which seems fairly realistic and means a moderate storm.

 

I see what your saying but I read the lowest feather to be sea level and since most people live above sea level I use the second highest feather.

[BLI snowman]

I see what your saying but I read the lowest feather to be sea level and since most people live above sea level I use the second highest feather.

 

50kts at 1000mb correlates to about 360' elevation, but keep in mind that is simply a free-air sounding and not taking terrain into account. It's tougher for those winds that are so strong aloft to mix down over all but the most exposed hilltops.

[Black Hole]

Vancouver School District got let out early on December 12, 1995. Nowadays they'd probably just cancel.

I remember being home for that although its sketchy because I was 6. Saw a huge branch fall on a car.

[Black Hole]

Not just Bellingham, Seattle has now shattered their December record and Olympia has tied their's.

 

Those 850mb temps are pretty insane for this time of year. Easily 10c above average, and you add to that the strong low level WAA and it's a pretty unique setup.

 

 

Is there any sort of precedent for warm temps we saw up north today occurring in the heart of December?

 

There has been a lot of talk about past arctic oubreaks (pre-airport era) lately but I would be interested to hear about some of the epic winter torches of the past as well.

 

This should help a little bit. It shows the return interval for the upper level temperatures. Pretty unusual in eastern Washington but not outrageously so over the western half. Must have just been so crazy stuff going on to maximize the pattern.