December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

The new 00z WRF-GFS 4km shows wind gust of up to 70 mph in the Willamette Valley. Not as good as the earlier 12z run but still a major windstorm. 

 

This could be a big deal in NW Oregon. One thing to bear in mind is that further strengthening would make it track even further west and make landfall even further north than the 0z GFS shows.

[wx_statman]

I used to love windstorms, but I've seen so many living here it just doesn't float my boat any more. Snow on the other hand...we could have 1000 major events and I would still love it.

 

I'm not too interested in windstorms either, unless its a real high-impact event of the 12/1995 or 12/2006 variety. We had gusts to 50+ back on 10/25 and it wasn't all that exciting.

[snow_wizard]

Honestly for me windstorms are not that exciting. Plus it sucks when the power goes out!

 

This would be more exciting I guess  :

 

That storm was insane! Hurricane force winds in Oregon and Great Lakes type snowfall in Seattle.

[wx_statman]

LOL I love how three people posted basically the same thing at the same time.

 

Thumbs down to marginal wind storms!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Honestly for me windstorms are not that exciting. Plus it sucks when the power goes out!

 

This would be more exciting I guess  :

 

http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/Jan1880EventsMapWAOR.jpg

 

I wonder if it snowed in Poulsbo.

[snow_wizard]

PDX never did mix out today. Color me surprised.

 

A fairly uniform 44/41 out here.

It felt tropical here this morning. It was 61 at about 8am. What an insane roller coaster this season!

[Snow]

This could be a big deal in NW Oregon. One thing to bear in mind is that further strengthening would make it track even further west and make landfall even further north than the 0z GFS shows.

 

Yeah good points, I am hoping the Sou'wester forms closer to the coastline.

[bainbridgekid]

I wonder if it snowed in Poulsbo.

Probably close to 5 feet.

[Snow]

Honestly for me windstorms are not that exciting. Plus it sucks when the power goes out!

 

This would be more exciting I guess  :

 

http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/Jan1880EventsMapWAOR.jpg

 

That storm was insane! Hurricane force winds in Oregon and Great Lakes type snowfall in Seattle.

 

Very impressive!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, lame windstorms can go to die. That storm in October was annoying. Several hours without power and it blew the door to my shop open and my dog ran away. Luckily she was returned a week later.

[Front Ranger]

Here, we see 60+ mph gusts frequently with Chinook winds, especially near the foothills. With far fewer trees, it rarely impacts much except to cause tumble weeds to blow around and make it a bit difficult to drive straight. Especially when drunk. LOL!

[BLI snowman]

Here, we see 60+ mph hour gusts frequently with Chinook winds, especially near the foothills. With far fewer trees, it rarely impacts much except to cause tumble weeds to blow around and make it a bit difficult to drive straight. Especially when drunk. LOL!

 

We're not quite Boulder, but even in Bellingham we get 60mph winds frequently enough to not warrant much of a freakout. The winds today did less tree damage than the heavy, wet snowstorm last winter. It's just not that big of a deal and is more of an annoying distraction than anything else.

[TT-SEA]

Did you know people chase storms in the Midwest? And for fun too! Stupid horrible people.

 

I also hate it when people root for cold and snow, especially when it damages property, threatens lives, and even destroys flowerbeds.

 

We should only be discussing from a frame of mind that anything other than calm and uneventful weather is forum worthy.

 

 

Whatever.    

[bainbridgekid]

We're not quite Boulder, but even in Bellingham we get 60mph winds frequently enough to not warrant much of a freakout. The winds today did less tree damage than the heavy, wet snowstorm last winter. It's just not that big of a deal and is more of an annoying distraction than anything else.

I can see how wind would not be exciting in Covington and Bellingham because strong winds are a fairly regular occurrence.

 

For the Seattle metro area and much of Puget Sound I definitely get the excitement though. We only get one or two windstorms over 50 mph per year it seems.

 

I wouldn't want damaging wind to be a regular thing or anything, but I can certainly appreciate a good windstorm from a meteorological perspective and can enjoy experiencing it occasionally, especially if it hits during the day.

 

I'd say wind is the second most interesting weather for me to track behind snow.

[MossMan]

I thought this forum was for tracking all types of weather...perhaps I am wrong? If this upcoming storm had potential of producing a major snow event, there would not be brush off that many here are giving this potential major wind event. The raw power of a windstorm is just amazing too me! And I for one will be tracking it closely, and watching DJ's awesome updates on it!!

[Front Ranger]

We're not quite Boulder, but even in Bellingham we get 60mph winds frequently enough to not warrant much of a freakout. The winds today did less tree damage than the heavy, wet snowstorm last winter. It's just not that big of a deal and is more of an annoying distraction than anything else.

 

Unless you're windsurfing or flying a kite, or invested in wind power, 30-50 mph winds are pretty much useless. Get above 50 and it's kind of fun just to watch people freak out as they lose their hats, hair is messed up, strange objects fly by, etc.

[antipex]

Unless you're windsurfing or flying a kite, or invested in wind power, 30-50 mph winds are pretty much useless. Get above 50 and it's kind of fun just to watch people freak out as they lose their hats, hair is messed up, strange objects fly by, etc.

 

Up at Crown Point a few years ago during an event with 80-100mph gusts "on the steps" I witnessed a fair number of bewildered tourists park their cars facing away from the wind, only to find their doors over-extended as they opened them and the contents of their vehicles exploding outward. That is some serious stuff.

[Gradient Keeper]

I can see how wind would not be exciting in Covington and Bellingham because strong winds are a fairly regular occurrence.

 

For the Seattle metro area and much of Puget Sound I definitely get the excitement though. We only get one or two windstorms over 50 mph per year it seems.

 

I wouldn't want damaging wind to be a regular thing or anything, but I can certainly appreciate a good windstorm from a meteorological perspective and can enjoy experiencing it occasionally, especially if it hits during the day.

 

I'd say wind is the second most interesting weather for me to track behind snow.

Well said. We don't root for destruction, trees into homes, or any of that, but high winds are awesome are you kidding me? The sheer, raw power, ferocity, and sound is incredibly exhilarating!

 

My only concern if we want a big wind storm is the low wrapping up undergoing deep cyclogenesis too soon because all of the ingredients are there for a potent storm.... We'll probably know by 12z tomorrow.....

[DareDuck]

Unless you're windsurfing or flying a kite, or invested in wind power, 30-50 mph winds are pretty much useless. Get above 50 and it's kind of fun just to watch people freak out as they lose their hats, hair is messed up, strange objects fly by, etc.

 

Even those invested in wind power typically don't like winds above 40. 

[wx_statman]

Up at Crown Point a few years ago during an event with 80-100mph gusts "on the steps" I witnessed a fair number of bewildered tourists park their cars facing away from the wind, only to find their doors over-extended as they opened them and the contents of their vehicles exploding outward. That is some serious stuff.

 

People don't like to use their heads. Even as tourists they could have seen what direction the 100 mph wind was coming from.

[Gradient Keeper]

I thought this forum was for tracking all types of weather...perhaps I am wrong? If this upcoming storm had potential of producing a major snow event, there would not be brush off that many here are giving this potential major wind event. The raw power of a windstorm is just amazing too me! And I for one will be tracking it closely, and watching DJ's awesome updates on it!!

I'd love to be tracking an arctic front sliding its way south through southern BC with thickness falling below 500 into BLI-OMK, then the prospects of Snow afterward, but why not track or discuss possible wind storms. We so rarely see extreme events in Washington/Oregon, so why not.....

[Skagit Weather]

Does anyone know if there is a reason that the 9pm discussions from the Seattle NWS are so terrible. This is at least the third in a row that is about as bare bones as it gets. "A third round of rainy and blustery weather???" Well that is certainly specific.

 

.SHORT TERM...A WET AND WINDY FRONTAL SYSTEM IS JUST OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WRN WA WED MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK JUST WEST OF THE CHARLOTTES AGAIN. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
FULL GALES OVER MOST OF THE MARINE AREAS...AS WELL AS SEVERAL HOURS
OF BLUSTERY SOUTHERLIES...POSSIBLY GALES...WITH THE FROPA AROUND
PUGET SOUND BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER FAST DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMES TOGETHER THROUGH WED NIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 970S ABOUT
150 MILES OFF BROOKINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THAT LOW FILLS AND
TRACKS NNE...CROSSING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU EVENING AND FILLING JUST
AS RAPIDLY AS IT DEVELOPED. THIS WILL GIVE WRN WA A THIRD ROUND OF
RAIN AND BLUSTERY WEATHER THU AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

[Gradient Keeper]

Up at Crown Point a few years ago during an event with 80-100mph gusts "on the steps" I witnessed a fair number of bewildered tourists park their cars facing away from the wind, only to find their doors over-extended as they opened them and the contents of their vehicles exploding outward. That is some serious stuff.

 

 

People don't like to use their heads. Even as tourists they could have seen what direction the 100 mph wind was coming from.

I was up there years ago with friends and it was the most incredible thing I've ever experienced. When I left the Gresham area it was already blowing 45-50+mph.... As we got to Corbett it was 70mph+ and as we arrived at Vista House around 1:30 AM amazing is the only thing I can think of. The sound was deafening and it was not a constant wind. It would build just immediately east of Crown Point with a very eerie sound, it would drop off to maybe 10mph, then blast you with tremendous force, then a gust would slam you from the other side pushing you back and forth. I'm a big guy and it threw me up the stairs slamming me into the vista house door/windows. It had to be 120mph+. We had to form a human chain of 4 people just to be able to get back to the car.

[wx_statman]

I thought this forum was for tracking all types of weather...perhaps I am wrong? If this upcoming storm had potential of producing a major snow event, there would not be brush off that many here are giving this potential major wind event. The raw power of a windstorm is just amazing too me! And I for one will be tracking it closely, and watching DJ's awesome updates on it!!

 

I'm certainly interested in wind from a meteorological perspective, as I am with any type of weather. That goes with the territory. I'm just not that excited by it...unless the wind gets real strong!

[MossMan]

Does anyone know if there is a reason that the 9pm discussions from the Seattle NWS are so terrible. This is at least the third in a row that is about as bare bones as it gets. "A third round of rainy and blustery weather???" Well that is certainly specific.

 

.SHORT TERM...A WET AND WINDY FRONTAL SYSTEM IS JUST OFFSHORE THIS

EVENING. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE

THROUGH WRN WA WED MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

WILL TRACK JUST WEST OF THE CHARLOTTES AGAIN. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF

FULL GALES OVER MOST OF THE MARINE AREAS...AS WELL AS SEVERAL HOURS

OF BLUSTERY SOUTHERLIES...POSSIBLY GALES...WITH THE FROPA AROUND

PUGET SOUND BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER FAST DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

COMES TOGETHER THROUGH WED NIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 970S ABOUT

150 MILES OFF BROOKINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THAT LOW FILLS AND

TRACKS NNE...CROSSING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU EVENING AND FILLING JUST

AS RAPIDLY AS IT DEVELOPED. THIS WILL GIVE WRN WA A THIRD ROUND OF

RAIN AND BLUSTERY WEATHER THU AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

I noticed that, probably keeping things short until we get a little closer to the event. They did freshen the High Wind Watch this evening!

[Snowman5678]

I kind of want to go to cape dissapointment to get some good wave pictures...

[FroYoBro]

I like storms. And turtles.

[TT-SEA]

I can see how wind would not be exciting in Covington and Bellingham because strong winds are a fairly regular occurrence.

 

For the Seattle metro area and much of Puget Sound I definitely get the excitement though. We only get one or two windstorms over 50 mph per year it seems.

 

I wouldn't want damaging wind to be a regular thing or anything, but I can certainly appreciate a good windstorm from a meteorological perspective and can enjoy experiencing it occasionally, especially if it hits during the day.

 

I'd say wind is the second most interesting weather for me to track behind snow.

 

 

And I will track it as well... its somewhat interesting from that perspective.   

[BLI snowman]

I'd love to be tracking an arctic front sliding its way south through southern BC with thickness falling below 500 into BLI-OMK, then the prospects of Snow afterward, but why not track or discuss possible wind storms. We so rarely see extreme events in Washington/Oregon, so why not.....

 

If a storm only brings 50-60mph winds to Portland it's not an extreme event, and that's about the maximum potential with this event. Fairly run-of-the-mill. Been awhile since they've seen an impressive windstorm, but historically they're capable of seeing 70mph+ events with some regularity. 

[Abbotsford_wx]

Wind storms are pretty much what got me interested in the weather. I don't remember seeing much snow when I was very young, but I do remember big wind storms that littered our yard with trees/branches and knocked out the power. A power outage is pretty exciting when you're just a kid.

 

It's been a few years since I've seen a decent blow up here. I haven't seen anything over 50 mph since Christmas Day 2011.

 

Unfortunately for me, it doesn't look like Thursday's storm is going to do much up here.

[wx_statman]

I was up there years ago with friends and it was the most incredible thing I've ever experienced. When I left the Gresham area it was already blowing 45-50+mph.... As we got to Corbett it was 70mph+ and as we arrived at Vista House around 1:30 AM amazing is the only thing I can think of. The sound was deafening and it was not a constant wind. It would build just immediately east of Crown Point with a very eerie sound, it would drop off to maybe 10mph, then blast you with tremendous force, then a gust would slam you from the other side pushing you back and forth. I'm a big guy and it threw me up the stairs slamming me into the vista house door/windows. It had to be 120mph+. We had to form a human chain of 4 people just to be able to get back to the car.

 

Yeah it gets pretty intense up there. I drove to Vista House during the January 2009 madness and didn't even get out of the car. I had walked around in 80-90 mph winds up there before, but the winds that day seemed a bit much. A good clue was seeing utility crews clearing downed trees and powerlines on the way up to Corbett. You know you're not dealing with a run of the mill east wind event when that happens.

[Bham_Guy]

Today’s windstorm up here may not have been exciting, but the temperature anomaly sure is. BLI tied its all-time December max temp with 63 and is currently at 55 for the low, which would be +2 for warmest minimum temperature ever in December. The temp departure for the day is sitting at +21.

[bainbridgekid]

00z Euro is slightly stronger and closer to the Coast with the low Thursday. Still not as windy as the GFS/WRF, but it'd be a pretty good blow. Definitely seems like the Euro is caving toward the GFS.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121000/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_nwus_3.png

[Gradient Keeper]

00z Euro is slightly stronger and closer to the Coast with the low Thursday. Still not as windy as the GFS/WRF, but it'd be a pretty good blow. Definitely seems like the Euro is caving toward the GFS.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121000/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_nwus_3.png

While not as impressive as the WRF-GFS Best 00z ECMWF run yet. Wind gust model widespread 50-60mph PDX metro  Compact low west of Astoria... supposedly weakening, I do not really buy the degrading due to fast motion and strong jet support I think that is being overdone.

[Gradient Keeper]

If a storm only brings 50-60mph winds to Portland it's not an extreme event, and that's about the maximum potential with this event. Fairly run-of-the-mill. Been awhile since they've seen an impressive windstorm, but historically they're capable of seeing 70mph+ events with some regularity. 

No, it wouldn't be, I'm just saying the potential, and there is very real potential for this to be similar to 2006 with winds 55-65mph east of I-205 and maybe even stronger than that. Safe forecast is 50-60mph right now.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting to note that most of the past 5 or 6 GFS runs show notably cooler weather late in the month.

[wx_statman]

Today’s windstorm up here may not have been exciting, but the temperature anomaly sure is. BLI tied its all-time December max temp with 63 and is currently at 55 for the low, which would be +2 for warmest minimum temperature ever in December. The temp departure for the day is sitting at +21.

 

That's impressive.

 

Pretty rare to see widespread low 60's all the way up the I-5 corridor from Medford to the Vancouver BC area in December. And PDX didn't even mix out.

[Snow]

00z Euro is slightly stronger and closer to the Coast with the low Thursday. Still not as windy as the GFS/WRF, but it'd be a pretty good blow. Definitely seems like the Euro is caving toward the GFS.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121000/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_nwus_3.png

 

While not as impressive as the WRF-GFS Best 00z ECMWF run yet. Wind gust model widespread 50-60mph PDX metro  Compact low west of Astoria... supposedly weakening, I do not really buy the degrading due to fast motion and strong jet support I think that is being overdone.

 

Yeah, I'm definitely loving that the EURO has trended towards the GFS. 

[Snow]

The new 00z WRF-GFS 4-km Soundings for PDX at Thursday 1pm. Still shows 50 knots sustained winds right at the surface. Timing is just now delayed by about 3 hours.

 

http://oi61.tinypic.com/2rylvt5.jpg

[BLI snowman]

No, it wouldn't be, I'm just saying the potential, and there is very real potential for this to be similar to 2006 with winds 55-65mph east of I-205 and maybe even stronger than that. Safe forecast is 50-60mph right now.

 

Given the lack of anything else on the horizon it's absolutely worth discussing, even if the end result is inevitably mundane. It's not every week that we have a 970mb cyclone right off the coast.