December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Snow]

00z GEM has 2 lows, one up near Vancouver Island, the other into northern California.... similar to the NAM..... Really you'd have to think the WRF is an outlier, but its consistency run after run can't be ignored either.... ECMWF will set things straight.....

 

The new 00z WRF-GFS 12km has around 50 mph peak wind gust for the Willamette Valley Thursday morning as the Sou'Wester tracks closely along the Oregon coastline as it heads north. Yea, the upcoming 00z EURO will set things straight tonight. I am hoping it shows what the GFS has been saying all along.

[BLI snowman]

00z GEM has 2 lows, one up near Vancouver Island, the other into northern California.... similar to the NAM..... Really you'd have to think the WRF is an outlier, but its consistency run after run can't be ignored either.... ECMWF will set things straight.....

 

Yesterday's 00z Canadian had the same exact setup as tonight's 00z GFS. 974mb low off of Astoria. Either the GFS is behind the curve or it's a better, more consistent model.

[Gradient Keeper]

The new 00z WRF-GFS 12km has around 50 mph peak wind gust for the Willamette Valley Thursday morning as the Sou'Wester tracks closely along the Oregon coastline as it heads north. Yea, the upcoming 00z EURO will set things straight tonight. I am hoping it shows what the GFS has been saying all along.

Uh..... No, the 4km shows 55-60kt(60-70mph) gusts over the Willamette Valley. Yeah ideal Sou'wester

[Phil]

All you can say right now is the analogs are good, the MJO forecast very encouraging, and the ENSO state highly likely (historically speaking) to bring an early Jan cold wave.

I wouldn't call the MJO forecast "encouraging" at all..I think the torch continues in the West until the upcoming SSW leads to a breakdown in the wave-train..

 

Those MJO phase diagrams fool a lot of people..

[Gradient Keeper]

Yesterday's 00z Canadian had the same exact setup as tonight's 00z GFS. 974mb low off of Astoria. Either the GFS is behind the curve or it's a better, more consistent model.

Yep, only difference was the GEM weakened the low much quicker....Tonight it is super splitty same as NAM and previous ECMWF runs.

[Skagit Weather]

I would love a windstorm. I still have failed to record a gust over 40 mph on my weather station as it came in just after the big windstorm years. The last good storm was in 2007, the year before I set-up my station. I understand people's hesitancy, but for me I will root for it and if it occurs, enjoy it. While snow and cold may be my favorite weather, anything that deviates from the normal is interesting its own way and I will follow it.

[Snow]

Uh..... No, the 4km shows 55-60kt(60-70mph) gusts over the Willamette Valley. Yeah ideal Sou'wester

 

Your right I was looking at the 10m wind speeds that showed around 50 mph sustained at the surface. I just saw the wind gust map and I'm very impressed!

[Front Ranger]

All you can say right now is the analogs are good, the MJO forecast very encouraging, and the ENSO state highly likely (historically speaking) to bring an early Jan cold wave.

 

Just focusing on this part...

 

Weak +ENSO years (SON just came in at .5 for 2014, so I'll include years in the .3 to 1.0 range): 1953-54, 1958-59, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1979-80, 1986-87, 1990-91, 1991-92, 1994-95, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2012-13.

 

Bolded years produced significant cold in very late December or early January (Jan 1954 had a major cold wave in the second half of the month). That's 6 out of 15.

 

Of course, you could argue that several of those years came close...1977 had weak cold with a brush of Arctic air, as did Jan 2013. Jan 2005 came close to delivering.

 

Overall, I'm not sure that there's any statistical significance here. But the good news is that weak ENSO years tend to be blockier and deliver more severe/frequent cold shots in general to the CONUS.

[Gradient Keeper]

Your right I was looking at the 10m wind speeds that showed around 50 mph sustained at the surface. I just saw the wind gust map and I'm very impressed!

If it verifies it would be a very big deal from Salem to Portland, maybe even a chunk of southwest Washington south of Olympia before the low weakens and gradient relaxes a bit.

[DareDuck]

I'd love a windstorm too, looks like EUG is just too far south?

[Tyler Mode]

10 AM Comparison 12z vs 0z

 

More compact and stronger low on the 0z

[BLI snowman]

Just focusing on this part...

 

Weak +ENSO years (SON just came in at .5 for 2014, so I'll include years in the .3 to 1.0 range): 1953-54, 1958-59, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1979-80, 1986-87, 1990-91, 1991-92, 1994-95, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2012-13.

 

Bolded years produced significant cold in very late December or early January (Jan 1954 had a major cold wave in the second half of the month). That's 6 out of 15.

 

Of course, you could argue that several of those years came close...1977 had weak cold with a brush of Arctic air, as did Jan 2013. Jan 2005 came close to delivering.

 

Overall, I'm not sure that there's any statistical significance here. But the good news is that weak ENSO years tend to be blockier and deliver more , severe/frequent cold shots in general to the CONUS.

 

1954 (mid January), 1970, 1977, 1978, 1993, and 2005 all had cold blocking episodes in early January with positive neutral or weak Nino winters. Some of those obviously didn't deliver big lowland snow but those aforementioned years all featured chilly upper level patterns for the PNW in the first half or so of the month. Pretty clear signal there.

[bainbridgekid]

One year ago today Eugene had a high of 19 and a low of -10. Still boggles my mind.

[DareDuck]

One year ago today Eugene had a high of 19 and a low of -10. Still boggles my mind.

 

That was a crazy night. Our house was so cold, heater was blasting all night just to keep it tolerable. Was great during the day though with the snow on the ground.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh Jim...

 

[snow_wizard]

Just focusing on this part...

 

Weak +ENSO years (SON just came in at .5 for 2014, so I'll include years in the .3 to 1.0 range): 1953-54, 1958-59, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1979-80, 1986-87, 1990-91, 1991-92, 1994-95, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2012-13.

 

Bolded years produced significant cold in very late December or early January (Jan 1954 had a major cold wave in the second half of the month). That's 6 out of 15.

 

Of course, you could argue that several of those years came close...1977 had weak cold with a brush of Arctic air, as did Jan 2013. Jan 2005 came close to delivering.

 

Overall, I'm not sure that there's any statistical significance here. But the good news is that weak ENSO years tend to be blockier and deliver more severe/frequent cold shots in general to the CONUS.

1969-70 and 1977-78 were second year Ninos. Not really applicable.

[snow_wizard]

I'm surprised nobody is commenting on how much better the GFS is looking in the longer range. Heights are rising over the Pacific and dropping over much of the US.

[snow_wizard]

It's coming. I'm surprised you are so negative right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm surprised nobody is commenting on how much better the GFS is looking in the longer range. Heights are rising over the Pacific and dropping over much of the US.

After FCST HR 348 it looks chilly....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting temps on my way home this evening. It was 50 in Salem when I left work. Temp dropped to about 48 by the time I got to Silverton. But the time I hit about 800' on the way home the temp had shot up into the upper 50s. At one point on the drive at about the 1300' level the car thermometer read 60! It was 55 at the house when I got home at about 6pm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After FCST HR 348 it looks chilly....

 

Its a lock

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's coming. I'm surprised you are so negative right now.

 

Right now that is just what my gut is telling me about how it will play out. You see all the signs and to you they point toward something good. I see the signs and they point the other direction. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF has an actual closed surface low around 980mb off Newport... May be trending towards the GFS/WRF. Hmmm...

[Gradient Keeper]

Onto 6z .....
6z NAM in 1 hour 30 minutes
6z GFS in 3 hours 15 minutes

Then 12z.....
12z NAM in 7 hours 30 minutes
12z GFS in 9 hours 15 minutes
12z GFS in 9 hours 35 minutes
12z GEM in 9 hours 35 minutes
12z ECMWF in 12 hours

[snow_wizard]

After FCST HR 348 it looks chilly....

It actually looks like a much better pattern by hour 312 or so.

[snow_wizard]

BTW 1976-77 had a minor Arctic outbreak in early Jan with some lowland snow. Just to set the record straight on warmish neutral / weak Nino winters.

[stuffradio]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2014/12/is-major-windstorm-headed-for-northwest.html

[Front Ranger]

1954 (mid January), 1970, 1977, 1978, 1993, and 2005 all had cold blocking episodes in early January with positive neutral or weak Nino winters. Some of those obviously didn't deliver big lowland snow but those aforementioned years all featured chilly upper level patterns for the PNW in the first half or so of the month. Pretty clear signal there.

 

Snow Wizard said early January, and I mentioned that 1954 did have the big cold event later in the month.

 

1992-3 actually had weak -ENSO in the fall (-.3 for SON). Like I said, was just using years that matched where we currently are with weak +ENSO.

 

All the other years had nothing notable for the vast majority of the PNW - not just no big lowland snow, but no full-scale Arctic intrusions either. Like I mentioned, 2013 falls into that category as well. I don't think SW is looking for "chilly upper level patterns".

[Tyler Mode]

The EURO now shows at least a low pressure center, albeit weaker than the GFS...but it's a major step toward producing wind in the valley.

[snow_wizard]

Right now that is just what my gut is telling me about how it will play out. You see all the signs and to you they point toward something good. I see the signs and they point the other direction.

Let's just say I would be pretty confident just based on the forecast method I'm using this winter. With Phil using a totally different method and coming to the same conclusion I'm very confident. Just the ENSO state alone gives a much above average chance of something good in early Jan. Surprisingly when you look at the 15 greatest Jul - Oct torches on record most of those also had Arctic outbreaks in Dec or Jan. I am sure you would have been doubting our chances in 1953-54 or 1979-80 every bit as much as you are now.

[Gradient Keeper]

The EURO now shows at least a low pressure center, albeit weaker than the GFS...but it's a major step toward producing wind in the valley.

ECMWF still not a big wind storm, but as you noted much stronger than previous runs, and most importantly shows a closed surface low which makes one think is it jumping on board with the GFS/WRF....

[snow_wizard]

Snow Wizard said early January, and I mentioned that 1954 did have the big cold event later in the month.

 

1992-3 actually had weak -ENSO in the fall (-.3 for SON). Like I said, was just using years that matched where we currently are with weak +ENSO.

 

All the other years had nothing notable for the vast majority of the PNW - not just no big lowland snow, but no full-scale Arctic intrusions either. Like I mentioned, 2013 falls into that category as well. I don't think SW is looking for "chilly upper level patterns".

I think you're missing the boat here. Especially if you focus more on +0.3 to +0.8 type winters. Almost no way this one will have any tri monthly averages of +1.0 or above. I actually count Jan 2005 as a hit because it was only some bizarre minor details that ruined that one. I would take my chances with those anomaly centers any day of the week. I think it's also prudent to exclude second year Ninos as they are always shitty winters.

[Front Ranger]

BTW 1976-77 had a minor Arctic outbreak in early Jan with some lowland snow. Just to set the record straight on warmish neutral / weak Nino winters.

 

I mentioned Jan 1977 in my post. It had a weak brush with modified Arctic air, but was far from anything notable. Coldest day at SEA was 34/24, same as Jan 2013. It was a little colder at PDX with more offshore flow, but wasn't true Arctic air...the 2 sub-freezing days happened due to fog/freezing drizzle, with a bunch of other days in the mid 30s with sunshine.

 

It doesn't prove anything one way or another, just wanted to provide the overall perspective on early January with similar ENSO to what we're seeing.

[BLI snowman]

Snow Wizard said early January, and I mentioned that 1954 did have the big cold event later in the month.

 

1992-3 actually had weak -ENSO in the fall (-.3 for SON). Like I said, was just using years that matched where we currently are with weak +ENSO.

 

All the other years had nothing notable for the vast majority of the PNW - not just no big lowland snow, but no full-scale Arctic intrusions either. Like I mentioned, 2013 falls into that category as well. I don't think SW is looking for "chilly upper level patterns".

 

1992-93 was a +ENSO winter like this one is going to be and actually had a late developing weak Nino in the late winter and spring. I would say it's pretty similar ENSO wise. No reason to discount it.

 

And early January 1978 had a major ice event for western OR and a major snow/ice event for Bellingham and SW BC. 

[Front Ranger]

I think you're missing the boat here. Especially if you focus more on +0.3 to +0.8 type winters. Almost no way this one will have any tri monthly averages of +1.0 or above. I actually count Jan 2005 as a hit because it was only some bizarre minor details that ruined that one. I would take my chances with those anomaly centers any day of the week. I think it's also prudent to exclude second year Ninos as they are always shitty winters.

 

 

Because I'm not going all in and saying early January is a lock for an Arctic event? Just providing some perspective and facts.

 

Almost all of the winters I included were in the .3 to .8 range. And again, I'm going off of the most recent fall ONI numbers we have for this year. But I can take out 1968-69 if you'd like (peaked at 1.1 later in the winter).

 

As far as second year Ninos go, that means you'd also have to take out 1953-54 (it was the third winter in a +ENSO stretch, which included one previous Nino), 1958-59, and 2004-05 (again, going by the fact that it was the third +ENSO winter in a row, which included a Nino before it).

 

Like I said, I think the most solid thing going for all of us is the fact that we've got weak ENSO and an atmosphere that has tended towards high latitude blocking.

[ShawniganLake]

It actually looks like a much better pattern by hour 312 or so.

The ensembles look closer to a +PNA ridge at day 16 then they do to anything good.

[snow_wizard]

1992-93 was a +ENSO winter like this one is going to be and actually had a late developing weak Nino in the late winter and spring. I would say it's pretty similar ENSO wise. No reason to discount it.

 

And early January 1978 had a major ice event for western OR and a major snow/ice event for Bellingham and SW BC.

There is no question that nearly every weak +ENSO winter since 1950 either hit us with a full blast or at least clipped us with an Arctic outbreak in January...usually early Jan. Even including the second year Ninos 1969-70 and 1977-78 which still had cold air masses at least clip us (as you've mentioned). The window of opportunity is certainly open.

 

You are correct when you say this ENSO state brings the most predictable winters of any except strong Nino.

[snow_wizard]

The ensembles look closer to a +PNA ridge at day 16 then they do to anything good.

I was talking about the operational.

[snow_wizard]

 

Because I'm not going all in and saying early January is a lock for an Arctic event? Just providing some perspective and facts.

 

Almost all of the winters I included were in the .3 to .8 range. And again, I'm going off of the most recent fall ONI numbers we have for this year. But I can take out 1968-69 if you'd like (peaked at 1.1 later in the winter).

 

As far as second year Ninos go, that means you'd also have to take out 1953-54 (it was the third winter in a +ENSO stretch, which included one previous Nino), 1958-59, and 2004-05 (again, going by the fact that it was the third +ENSO winter in a row, which included a Nino before it).

 

Like I said, I think the most solid thing going for all of us is the fact that we've got weak ENSO and an atmosphere that has tended towards high latitude blocking.

I think some of your examples had a warm/ neutral winter followed by a Nino as opposed to back to back Ninos. I think the point I'm trying to make is this ENSO state brings probably the highest chance of any ENSO state of producing a solid cold snap to the NW in Jan...usually early Jan. Even if your talking about 50% of them paying off that is still quite good.

 

As I also mentioned...Phil has been touting that time frame for weeks now based on entirely different criteria. Very good chance this one will work out. We'll see I guess.

[Front Ranger]

1992-93 was a +ENSO winter like this one is going to be and actually had a late developing weak Nino in the late winter and spring. I would say it's pretty similar ENSO wise. No reason to discount it.

 

And early January 1978 had a major ice event for western OR and a major snow/ice event for Bellingham and SW BC. 

 

Yes, 1992-93's +ENSO development was extremely late. Who knows where our ENSO will be in a couple months, but based on where it's been the last few months, 1992 was well behind 2014's +ENSO. Beyond that, it was also a winter influenced (to what degree is debatable) by the Pinatubo eruption.

 

Jan 1978 was another weak backdoor event that mostly missed to the east. SEA put up a cold day of 44/32, and even though PDX had Gorge outflow, clouds, and precip they couldn't manage a sub-freezing high.

 

I mean, if you want to count these teaser type events as something to hang your hat on, go for it. I was just looking at actual, full blown, regional Arctic events - the type that produce what people are actually hoping for. Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Jan 2013, Jan 2005, and Jan 1970 would not leave many people all that happy.