Front Ranger Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well, despite differences in the pattern evolution, pretty similar result by day 6. Chilly and dry. Again, just shift everything 5 degrees and the PNW is probably golden. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wow, 1050mb+ high over southern BC.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Boom. Score Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wow, 1050mb+ high over southern BC.... Yeah, that ends up being the biggest difference in the mid range this run. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 The GFS-Parallel is even colder, regular version trending to it now. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500a_namer_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 1054mb high north of Omak... are you serious? That would have serious arctic/deep air mass and would be colder at 850 than modeled right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yep... this is trending just like the 11/28 event. I am becoming more confident in snow here on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wow! GFS-Parallel! It's following the GEM! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500a_namer_29.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 The Op has surface temps in the 10's and 20's at times again for PDX HR 156 - 204 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wow! GFS-Parallel! It's following the GEM! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500a_namer_29.pngYeah, looks pretty good. Back it up a bit more and it would be awesome http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_29.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 This is a decently good run so far, and it seems that maybe now even our decently good runs are looking like this. Not bad. In my opinion this run was an eyelash from being incredible. We're almost there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 SCORE! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Coast to coast Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I need to check out the CFS Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well if January torches from coast to coast then the CFS will be spot on. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Okay now this is a little too much lol. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500a_namer_35.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well, well, well, the Op has another reload after day 12.... and VERY bitter arctic air.... Matches up with the new Euro Weeklies HMMMMM http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122300/gfs_T2m_nwus_48.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 tonights model run looks real real bad. i'm not going to get down though. tomorrow they'll be back to something close to good. just have to be patient. in phil i trust. It actually looks good. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Okay now this is a little too much lol. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500a_namer_35.pngThis map actually made me LOL Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 It actually looks good.Yeah I was s little confused by his post, things keep trending much more positive with each run if I am reading this right? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 If the GFS-Parallel verifies this would be a huge success for the Americans and the upgrade is showing early signs of success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 It actually looks good.Looks better than I initially thought. Was looking at the recent posts on my cell phone squinting at the screen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 All that matters is that we have two runs in a row showing an arctic blast past 300 hours. I honestly think it will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yep... this is trending just like the 11/28 event. I am becoming more confident in snow here on Saturday night into Sunday morning. I wouldnt mind another 3" of snow here...the lawn still hasn't been mowed so it would look like crap though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I wouldnt mind another 3" of snow here...the lawn still hasn't been mowed so it would look like crap though. Better get out and mow! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 This map actually made me LOLYeah but I like it. If the GFS-Parallel is that insistent on shoving cold air westward that bodes well for us because Oregon does well with this set-up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 If the GFS-Parallel verifies this would be a huge success for the Americans and the upgrade is showing early signs of success. Go America. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 This map actually made me LOL That's quite the little storm off NorCal there. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Fantastic GFS run. A solid cold shot in the believable range and then a big blast later on. Pretty much cold the whole way through. Cold in January! OMG! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 00z GFS 850s -15c over PDX, and -18c to -20c The Dalles or Columbia Basin with strong east wind... We would be in the 10s.. add any snowcover... and it will be frigid! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah but I like it. If the GFS-Parallel is that insistent on shoving cold air westward that bodes well for us because Oregon does well with this set-up. Probably bodes poorly for Alabama and Florida State... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 D**n... 1060mb over western Montana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Fantastic GFS run. A solid cold shot in the believable range and then a big blast later on. Pretty much cold the whole way through. Cold in January! OMG! Who knows. But December has absolutely been a torchfest, wouldn't surprise me to see January below average. Would be nice to have our coldest January since like 1979, or earlier. We haven't had a legit cold January really since 1980. FYI right now SLE is on pace to have their warmest December on record. That would make 4 record warm months this year I believe, records date back to 1892.... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Of course one of Salem's warmest December's on record was December 1929 which was followed by their coldest month ever recorded. I believe that was also an El Nino year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Lets see what our friend the GEM has to say. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Of course one of Salem's warmest December's on record was December 1929 which was followed by their coldest month ever recorded. I believe that was also an El Nino year. 12 degrees below average. It was like living in Chicago that month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Lets see what our friend the GEM has to say.Looking at a few model fields, it's not good.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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