December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

18Z GFS for next Monday... almost to 576DM heights!

 

 

 

And it goes higher.

 

In my opinion, the main thing we need to be keeping our eyes on is that stubborn Aleutian low. This time of year, with longer wave lengths, it's very difficult for you guys to score with that thing in place. If it weakens dramatically or retrogrades, that will be a great sign.

[MossMan]

18Z GFS for next Monday... almost to 576DM heights!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_150_500_vort_ht.gif

Would that make for a major inversion for us?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18Z GFS for next Monday... almost to 576DM heights!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_150_500_vort_ht.gif

It looks cold at Hudson bay

[luvssnow_spokane]

Block setup is totally wrong and needs to move west. Seems like EVERYTIME we get significant ridging it is always to close and sitting right on top of our a$$. Ugh!

[Front Ranger]

Block setup is totally wrong and needs to move west. Seems like EVERYTIME we get significant ridging it is always to close. Ugh!

 

If we could just get rid of that warm blob of SSTAs offshore...

 

Kidding, kidding!

[Front Ranger]

The model discussions and puppy pictures are awesome. The bickering between two guys who don't even live in the PacNW arguing over the finer details in life, not exactly awesome. Keep it to a PM or a separate thread.

 

Aw, don't play that card. My heart will always be there.

[Front Ranger]

The 18z teases again at hour 228. 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

And it goes higher.

 

In my opinion, the main thing we need to be keeping our eyes on is that stubborn Aleutian low. This time of year, with longer wave lengths, it's very difficult for you guys to score with that thing in place. If it weakens dramatically or retrogrades, that will be a great sign.

 

 

582DM in a week.

 

But does look sort of crashy at this point.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_183_500_vort_ht.gif

[bainbridgekid]

Would that make for a major inversion for us?

The 18z actually shows pretty strong offshore flow at that time so a big inversion would not be likely. 12z showed much flatter gradients.

 

Pressure map alone almost looks arctic blastish, yet the 500mb pattern is nowhere close.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122318/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_26.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of places in the US will be cold next week!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stuck at HR 183 on my site

[Front Ranger]

Stuck at HR 183 on my site

 

That's past the point of no return anyway.

[luvssnow_spokane]

A lot of places in the US will be cold next week!

goodie for them...

[Phil]

Boom, wave-2 masterpiece:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/TDNTZ1/800.jpg

[richard mann]

... card. My heart will always be there.

 

Fred has to try to be more diplomatic regarding frayed and more tangential exchanges that crop up. I don't. 

 

— It was the criticism thing.  .. I could go on. But won't. (Hopefully this, is left "alone".) 

[Deweydog]

Boom, wave-2 masterpiece:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/TDNTZ1/800.jpg

Paper airplanes don't count as snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the 18z goes no where interesting

[Front Ranger]

Paper airplanes don't count as snow.

 

That's a reconnaissance plane he sent out to sample the upper atmosphere.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Fred has to try to be more diplomatic regarding frayed and more tangential exchanges that crop up. I don't. 

 

— It was the criticism thing.  .. I could go on. But won't. (Hopefully this, is left "alone".) 

Hey Richard!  ANY thoughts on the upcoming weather? Love you input and analysis. Although a little tough to read sometimes but you do have some crazy brilliant insights!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah the 18z goes no where interesting

Yeah -- But where did the paper airplane go? 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Boom, wave-2 masterpiece:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/TDNTZ1/800.jpg

Please repost and explain. 

[MossMan]

Hopefully the 0z's will start a nice new and positive trend!

A very wet day up here in Stanwood, been having moderate rain for about an hour now...very exciting stuff!!

[Deweydog]

Please repost and explain.

One less than a wave-3 response. Duh.

[Phil]

Wait, did the image post okay? I can see it just fine.

[GHweatherChris]

Wait, did the image post okay? I can see it just fine.

He wants you to explain the image. What does it mean?

[seattleweatherguy]

Boom, wave-2 masterpiece:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/TDNTZ1/800.jpg

 

DOES that mean epic cold for us?

[Front Ranger]

DOES that mean epic cold for us?

 

Hour 348 of the GFS. FWIW.

[Phil]

Simply put, a full PV bifurcation may keep the -EPO going (will lead to more in the way of meridional flow overall).

 

More blocking =

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like creepy eyes of old man winter staring back at me. 

[MossMan]

Does anyone know what page I can find the Dec 2008 discussion thread in the archived forum. Someone must have bumped it at some point since it is not with all the other 2008 threads and I have been searching all over for it with no luck.

[Phil]

Hour 348 of the GFS. FWIW.

Strat forecasts are not like surface/tropospheric forecasts..much higher verification rate. The ECMWF ensembles are gung-ho on a split as well.

[Phil]

Looks like creepy eyes of old man winter staring back at me.

Even better looking eyes at 20mb..this would put an end to the zonal regime for awhile:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/aqUcPc/800.jpg

[HighlandExperience]

Simply put, a full PV bifurcation may keep the -EPO going (will lead to more in the way of meridional flow overall).

 

More blocking =

 

Unfortunately that is not helpful if the block keeps setting up right over the west coast.   <_>

[HighlandExperience]

In the short term this is good news for the Puget Sound.

 

THE TREND OF THE HRRR RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN CLEAR.
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES AND THE COOLING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS GIVE AN ISOTHERMAL 0C LAYER FROM ABOUT 2000 FEET TO 500-600
FEET MSL IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5...FROM ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT TO 15-18Z
WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR GOES AS FAR AS SHOWING UP TO 3 INCHES OF WET
SNOW AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT JUST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR SOME GRASS SNOW ON
HIGHER HILLS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AND THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS ARE RARE...SO PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST FORECASTS.
 

[stuffradio]

Boom, 404.

Boom, 402.

[seattleweatherguy]

In the short term this is good news for the Puget Sound.

 

THE TREND OF THE HRRR RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN CLEAR.

RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES AND THE COOLING OF THE LOWER

LEVELS GIVE AN ISOTHERMAL 0C LAYER FROM ABOUT 2000 FEET TO 500-600

FEET MSL IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY SOUTHWARD

ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5...FROM ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT TO 15-18Z

WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR GOES AS FAR AS SHOWING UP TO 3 INCHES OF WET

SNOW AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE NAM BUFR

SOUNDINGS SUPPORT JUST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR SOME GRASS SNOW ON

HIGHER HILLS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AND THESE TYPE OF

EVENTS ARE RARE...SO PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST FORECASTS.

 

 

For tonight?

[MossMan]

In the short term this is good news for the Puget Sound.

 

THE TREND OF THE HRRR RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN CLEAR.

RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES AND THE COOLING OF THE LOWER

LEVELS GIVE AN ISOTHERMAL 0C LAYER FROM ABOUT 2000 FEET TO 500-600

FEET MSL IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY SOUTHWARD

ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5...FROM ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT TO 15-18Z

WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR GOES AS FAR AS SHOWING UP TO 3 INCHES OF WET

SNOW AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE NAM BUFR

SOUNDINGS SUPPORT JUST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR SOME GRASS SNOW ON

HIGHER HILLS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AND THESE TYPE OF

EVENTS ARE RARE...SO PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST FORECASTS.

 

Interesting...was so busy looking at the horrific models I was not even paying attention to the short term!

[MossMan]

For tonight?

The NWS Seattle AFD ( Jay Albrecht...aka Jaya from the forum I am 99% sure) is a great read!

[HighlandExperience]

For tonight?

 

Yes. Our best shot at some flakes is tonight it seems (specifically for East Puget Sound area).

 

I bet TT scores something going into Christmas as well.

[MossMan]

I would be ok with 3" of snow tonight! Currently 42 here with moderate rain.