Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 00z GFS 6-10, 8-14 Day Analog CompositeNice improvements for sure. Ridge backing off, retrograding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Pretty amazing the WRF showed temps wouldn't even drop to 44 here by 10 pm and it's already 42 well before that. Pretty crazy precip intensity indicated here through 4am. 44 vs 42 is amazing? Its 20 minutes to 10 now. Are you OK tonight? You seem out of touch again. Browse the 12Z runs just for fun. The 00Z GFS was the only good run of the entire day. Its the outlier at the moment. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yeah, but the 0z GFS was so different than any other run today. Guess it comes down to the Euro, yet again. I was saying it is unlike any recent run of ANY model. The same is not true of tonight's GFS run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 00z GFS 6-10, 8-14 Day Analog Composite Nice improvements for sure. Ridge backing off, retrograding. 500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif 500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif Some nice years showing up there. It looks like Phil may have nailed the progression dead between the eyes. I sure hope so! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Hey Jim... pay attention. 12Z GFS for Monday: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_156_500_vort_ht.gif And the brand new 00Z Canadian for Monday... how is this run different than any run of any model? Its exactly like all of the 12Z runs. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 44 vs 42 is amazing? Its 20 minutes to 10 now. Are you OK tonight? You seem out of touch again. Browse the 12Z runs just for fun. The 00Z GFS was the only good run of the entire day. Its the outlier at the moment. Can't tell him he's out of touch when you just last night said we wouldn't see a flip to cold again because it's too extreme of a change. Look what happened tonight. To call anything off the table at this point is foolish with the lack of consistency. Not to mention you called off the Jan 1-10th period earlier based off a 240 hour forecast for the 2nd. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Tim is right about this. The 0z GEM is much closer to the rest of the model runs today than the 0z GFS. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Can't tell him he's out of touch when you just last night said we wouldn't see a flip to cold again because it's too extreme of a change. Look what happened tonight. To call anything off the table at this point is foolish with the lack of consistency. Not to mention you called off the Jan 1-10th period earlier based off a 240 hour forecast for the 2nd. He is out of touch because 44 vs 42 is 'amazing' and he obviously did not look at any of the 12Z runs. I have no idea what will happen tonight or over the weekend or next week... but Jim is asleep at the wheel tonight. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 I just checked 00z GEM Ensembles HR 96-144 and there are several cold members just enough mixed in that to me means the operational could have room to improve tomorrow. Checking HR 168 - 240 in a second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 I just checked 00z GEM Ensembles HR 96-144 and there are several cold members just enough mixed in that to me means the operational could have room to improve tomorrow. Checking HR 168 - 240 in a second.HR 168 - 240, very little if any signal for cold or retrogression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 I just checked 00z GEM Ensembles HR 96-144 and there are several cold members just enough mixed in that to me means the operational could have room to improve tomorrow. Checking HR 168 - 240 in a second. Having the parallel agree is a good thing. But I literally have no idea what it will be like on Sunday at this point. I mean no idea at all. Can't remember this much disagreement within 120 hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 00z ECMWF is underwayNeed a good run mirroring GFS at the least and not following the GEM. No, we do not want that. HR 24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 HR 168 - 240, very little if any signal for cold or retrogression. Most of the retrogression signal has bee just after day 10. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Would love that Aleutian trough to be pulled/pushed back into Siberia..... lol wishful thinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 It certainly does seem people are discounting the possibilities for tonight way too easily. We shall see I guess.Oh Jim... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Down another degree here. Obviously the models are too warm for tonight. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Literally so much is riding on this Euro run. Insane pressure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Oh Jim... I guess you weren't aware the NWS is actually talking about snow tonight. Sometimes you seem to think I'm a moron. Why do I even bother posting on here. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 HR 48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Literally so much is riding on this Euro run. Insane pressure.There actually is.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 If there are reports of snow in the morning I'll be sure to gloat. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Per my impression more general, I'd say that most of the people interested in the idea of "model riding" here in the PNW, .. are most probably, fairly familiar with the limits of what they're looking at, or choose to. — Certainly good to be reminded of the idea every once in a while. As too much (?) model riding along with speculation connected, can be thought of at least, as detracting from the idea of whats actually going on, and so people's pondering what might take place where looking ahead, more for themselves. Again, .. I'd say. The term is one accepted to some extent now these days btw. - http://www.urbandict...rm=model riding .. No online support group as yet apparently. @You could start one for us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 I guess you weren't aware the NWS is actually talking about snow tonight. Sometimes I think you seem to think I'm a moron. Why do I even bother posting on here. Its like you are posting in your world with no sense of the discussion on here... or any other model runs today. You just keep plowing along obvilously. BTW - whether you bottom out 38 or 36 is not going to make much of a difference. Cold rain is cold rain. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 If there are reports of snow in the morning I'll be sure to gloat. Not the point... we all know its possible. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Oh Jim... This is a weird one. He's talking about a legit threat, unless the NWS is out to lunch. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Its like you are posting in your world with no sense of the discussion on here... or any other model runs today. You just keep plowing along obvilously. BTW - whether you bottom out 38 or 36 is not going to make much of a difference. Cold rain is cold rain. Dude...you're crossing into jerkdom. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Can't tell him he's out of touch when you just last night said we wouldn't see a flip to cold again because it's too extreme of a change. Look what happened tonight. To call anything off the table at this point is foolish with the lack of consistency. Not to mention you called off the Jan 1-10th period earlier based off a 240 hour forecast for the 2nd. Tim is just so eager to discredit me. It's to the point where it's just plain sad. How on Earth is it a problem to point out the WRF was at least 3 to 4 degrees too warm at 10pm tonight? It really pisses me off people can't post in peace on here. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 This is a weird one. He's talking about a legit threat, unless the NWS is out to lunch. No kidding... of course its possible. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Dude...you're crossing into jerkdom.Crossing? He's there.... Tim, seriously lay off especially when you know full well what he disclosed in here, and you're pushing his buttons repeatedly? That's not real smart or nice.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Dude...you're crossing into jerkdom. Just let him hang himself. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Tim is just so eager to discredit me. It's to the point where it's just plain sad. How on Earth is it a problem to point out the WRF was at least 3 to 4 degrees too warm at 10pm tonight? It really pisses me off people can't post in peace on here. Nothing wrong with posting your temp or comparing it to the WRF. But claiming 44 vs 42 is 'amazing' is a little silly. Anywhooooo... did you see the 12Z runs? The 00Z GEM is just like all the other runs today. It might be wrong... but it has lots of company today. 00Z ECMWF to the rescue! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Literally so much is riding on this Euro run. Insane pressure. Dood you don't even know how in a knot my stomach is right now. Hour 240 on the Euro tonight means EVERYTHING! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Just let him hang himself. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Crossing? He's there.... Tim, seriously lay off.....He totally paints himself into a corner whereas I'm just pointing out possibilities and model errors tonight. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Nothing wrong with posting your temp or comparing it to the WRF. But claiming 44 vs 42 is 'amazing' is a little silly. Anywhooooo... did you see the 12Z runs. The 00Z GEM is just like all the other runs today. It might be wrong... but it has lots of company today. 00Z ECMWF to the rescue! Tim, the EURO tonight will decide the future of all Middle Earth. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 This is a weird one. He's talking about a legit threat, unless the NWS is out to lunch. They actually mentioned the HRRR model indicated accumulations tonight for some places. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Next 2 frames mean everything ...................until the next 2 frames after that.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Can't tell if this is going to be good or bad yet? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 No kidding... of course its possible. That's why Dewey's post didn't really make sense. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 He is out of touch because 44 vs 42 is 'amazing' and he obviously did not look at any of the 12Z runs. I have no idea what will happen tonight or over the weekend or next week... but Jim is asleep at the wheel tonight. I would sure like to see where I said amazing. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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