December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah those maps are goofy and everything has been pushed back and further north since the 12z. Hopefully the ensembles, Canadian and EURO are better.

[Snow]

so how does this map work are these highs or lows? Something historic?

These are the predicted 2-meter(ground) temperatures at that particular time, which would be Monday 4am Jan. 5.

[Gradient Keeper]

This looks fun too.. 993mb offshore, 24-26mb OTH-GEG gradient... Major downslope wind storm + snow probably

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_36.png

[GHweatherChris]

Since when is one run a trend?

[GHweatherChris]

This looks fun too.. 993mb offshore, 24-26mb OTH-GEG gradient... Major downslope wind storm + snow probably

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_36.png

994

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, but it's all past the resolution change...on the 12z GFS, Arctic air began seeping in around hour 162, which translates to hour 150 this run. Major delay. Obviously we want this trend to reverse.

 

 

Yeah those maps are goofy and everything has been pushed back and further north since the 12z. Hopefully the ensembles, Canadian and EURO are better.

Yeah, the blast was delayed.... which is never good really. You don't want to see runs push things back too far....

[Front Ranger]

Since when is one run a trend?

 

True, trend was probably the wrong term. Though the 18z did delay the cold a bit from the 12z.

[stuffradio]

Since when is one run a trend?

Two runs, but it's still not a trend. It's hard to not get caught up in emotions when you see something you wanted keep getting delayed. I'd say wait for Tuesdays model runs for the weekend, and use these runs for up to Tuesday.

[seattleweatherguy]

These are the predicted 2-meter(ground) temperatures at that particular time, which would be Monday 4am Jan. 4.

 

how do predicted 2 - meter ground temps equate to real time temperatures?

[seattleweatherguy]

This looks fun too.. 993mb offshore, 24-26mb OTH-GEG gradient... Major downslope wind storm + snow probably

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_36.png

washington and oregon get hit perfect.

[GHweatherChris]

Two runs, but it's still not a trend. It's hard to not get caught up in emotions when you see something you wanted keep getting delayed. I'd say wait for Tuesdays model runs for the weekend, and use these runs for up to Tuesday.

18z doens't count.

[GHweatherChris]

how do predicted 2 - meter ground temps equate to real time temperatures?

6 feet off the ground.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those maps are meaningless past the resolution change.

[Snow]

how do predicted 2 - meter ground temps equate to real time temperatures?

Their close but people say they run a little too cold during cold events.

[Phil]

Nasty. That's a pretty warm pattern for most of the U.S.

[HighlandExperience]

The evening Seattle NWS discussion is somewhat boring. "chance of rain" toward the end of the week. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Those maps are meaningless past the resolution change.

Still too far out to take seriously, but fun to talk about regardless....

[GHweatherChris]

What?

 

That map really does show a warm pattern for most of the US.  Fake cold does not count.

[Snow]

This looks fun too.. 993mb offshore, 24-26mb OTH-GEG gradient... Major downslope wind storm + snow probably

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_36.png

 

Yup, big time snow/ice storm with blizzard conditions eastern PDX metro and Gorge.

[GHweatherChris]

The evening Seattle NWS discussion is somewhat boring. "chance of rain" toward the end of the week. 

Copy/Paste.

[Snow]

[HighlandExperience]

Copy/Paste.

 

845 PM PST SAT DEC 27 2014

 

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER

LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING

BRINGING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER BRITISH

COLUMBIA WILL PUSH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVING

MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE COAST AND

MOUNTAINS WITH OTHER AREAS DRIER. THERE IS A SORT OF CONVERGENCE

ZONE IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HEADING

TOWARD THE CASCADES IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW FROM THE STRAIT. LOWS

TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

 

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND HIGHS IN

THE LOW 40S. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY OVER

MOST OF THE AREA AS FRASER OUTFLOW BEGINS. THIS OUTFLOW WILL

STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS

WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. DURING

THIS PROCESS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SNOW

FLURRIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO 300

FEET OR SO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EVEN LOWER AS THE AIR MASS DRIES. IT

IS WORTH NOTING THE UW WRF-GFS HAS NO SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS THOUGH

THERE IS SOME OVER THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE OLYMPICS WHERE THE

NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE UPSLOPE. IN ANY CASE BY SOMETIME ON

MONDAY POPS FALL TO ZERO AS SKIES CLEAR.

 

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL

FALL INTO THE 20S WITH UPPER TEENS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGHS ON

MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER

THAN THAT ON TUESDAY. BURKE

 

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...KEEPING THE WEATHER

MOSTLY SUNNY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE

WEAKENING OVER TIME.

 

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD IS STILL IN QUESTION AND I

EXPECT THE MODELS WILL REMAIN INCONSISTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...WARM SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW AROUND A

LARGE LOW N OF HAWAII FLOWS N AND MERGES WITH THE COLD NORTHERN

BRANCH FLOW COMING S ACROSS THE GULF OF AK. THE TWO BRANCHES MERGE

OFFSHORE WITH THE RESULTING JET AIMED ROUGHLY AT THE PACNW. THIS

WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FOR W WA BUT THE MODELS ARE GOING

TO HAVE A HARD TIME SETTLING ON WHETHER THE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL

BE COLDER NORTHERN BRANCH OR WARMER MOISTER SOUTHERN BRANCH. SO FAR

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE

REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE

VARIABLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN KEPT FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY SHOWS

A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES SINCE

THE LATEST GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE COLDER.

[Phil]

What?

 

That map really does show a warm pattern for most of the US. Fake cold does not count.

What is "fake" cold? In the long run, that pattern would be quite cold over most of the U.S.

[HighlandExperience]

What is "fake" cold? In the long run, that pattern would be quite cold over most of the U.S.

 

Inversion = lame weather.

[GHweatherChris]

845 PM PST SAT DEC 27 2014

 

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD IS STILL IN QUESTION AND I

EXPECT THE MODELS WILL REMAIN INCONSISTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...WARM SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW AROUND A

LARGE LOW N OF HAWAII FLOWS N AND MERGES WITH THE COLD NORTHERN

BRANCH FLOW COMING S ACROSS THE GULF OF AK. THE TWO BRANCHES MERGE

OFFSHORE WITH THE RESULTING JET AIMED ROUGHLY AT THE PACNW. THIS

WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FOR W WA BUT THE MODELS ARE GOING

TO HAVE A HARD TIME SETTLING ON WHETHER THE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL

BE COLDER NORTHERN BRANCH OR WARMER MOISTER SOUTHERN BRANCH. SO FAR

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE

REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE

VARIABLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN KEPT FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY SHOWS

A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES SINCE

THE LATEST GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE COLDER.

 

No change from afternoon discussion.

 

They only really change the Long term twice a day, early morning and afternoon.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM reload after day 8

[Guest Winterdog]

I blame this turnaround in the models on the earlier wrestling match between Phil and Front Ranger. 

[Snow]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GEM reload after day 8

 

Oh? The site I'm using isn't close to day 8 yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 192 arctic front drops into Columbia Basin.... New shot of deep arctic air floods west...east wind increases... and then this...

 

HR 240.... CLASSIC setup! Strong low approaching and very strong bitter east winds

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122800/gem_mslp_wind_wus_41.png

[Snow]

[Front Ranger]

I blame this turnaround in the models on the earlier wrestling match between Phil and Front Ranger. 

 

I blame it on the cute pic that MossMan posted. Too much cuteness on a weather forum makes the weather gods angry.

[Front Ranger]

What is "fake" cold? In the long run, that pattern would be quite cold over most of the U.S.

 

Maybe? I was just going by what it actually showed. Definitely wasn't a cold pattern at that point with raging +NAO and weak +PNA.

 

But who cares, it's just the silly paralegal.

[Front Ranger]

GEM does look a little better than GFS in the semi-believable range, but Arctic air still doesn't make it in until day 8 as DJ said.

 

Hopefully the Euro will have something good within 168 hours.

[GHweatherChris]

GEM does look a little better than GFS in the semi-believable range, but Arctic air still doesn't make it in until day 8 as DJ said.

 

Hopefully the Euro will have something good within 168 hours.

Are you talking about the up in the air reload?

[MossMan]

I blame it on the cute pic that MossMan posted. Too much cuteness on a weather forum makes the weather gods angry.

I was going to "like" this post but I am over my quota!

I'm not too concerned about the push back, will probably be several more days before we get a clearer picture on the word of the week...reload!

[Gradient Keeper]

My thoughts based on all the runs/ensembles today. They really mean very little right now. From the very good runs, the ones that delay arctic air, and bad ones, they all don't mean too terribly much right now. It really just says that outside of day 5 we have model disagreement as usual. If you remember we had the exact same situation before models finally settled in on this initial modified blast for next week. We don't have a solid trend, good run-to-run consistency, or model continuity just yet. Give it several more model runs before we know whether or not we see a second reload/blast. Cautiously optimistic

[Front Ranger]

Are you talking about the up in the air reload?

 

Yeah, sorry. First shot is a given.

[PV=nRT]

HR 90 Op.... beefy looking block

 

Snow showers in Vegas? Also I do not believe they have had a sub-freezing temperature in over a year.

[Snow]

The new 00z UKMET at hour 144.

 

http://oi58.tinypic.com/xc6lh0.jpg