December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Weren't you preaching logic earlier?  Your forecast is for a freezing/sub-freezing day at PDX (you said 30-32 yesterday and nothing has really changed model-wise).  They've had nine (9) such days (full sunshine and freezing/sub-freezing) in the last 16 years.  You could make it 10 if you counted February 17th, 2006, but even then we're talking barely over half a day a year.  It would be significant.  

 

Stop arguing minor semantics. Regardless of whether or not a 32 degree high is "significant" for our climate, it's hardly indicative of this being a major event this week. 

[Deweydog]

Stop arguing minor semantics. Regardless of whether or not a 32 degree high is "significant" for our climate, it's hardly indicative of this being a major event this week. 

 

Sorry.  I guess I'm alone in thinking sub-freezing highs on the west side are kind of a big deal.  Seems kind of significant.  You'll get snow someday. 

[BLI snowman]

Sorry.  I guess I'm alone in thinking sub-freezing highs on the west side are kind of a big deal.  Seems kind of significant.  You'll get snow someday. 

 

This time of year? They're certainly nice, but it's hard to be too mesmerized by a 32-33 degree high at PDX at the coldest point of the year. Our great winters of the not so distant past (1948-49, 1949-50, 1956-57, 1968-69, 1978-79) were littered with days like that. 

[Deweydog]

This time of year? They're certainly nice, but it's hard to be too mesmerized by a 32-33 degree high at PDX at the coldest point of the year. Our great winters of the not so distant past (1948-49, 1949-50, 1956-57, 1968-69, 1978-79) were littered with days like that. 

 

OK.  

[Front Ranger]

This time of year? They're certainly nice, but it's hard to be too mesmerized by a 32-33 degree high at PDX at the coldest point of the year. Our great winters of the not so distant past (1948-49, 1949-50, 1956-57, 1968-69, 1978-79) were littered with days like that. 

 

Not to mention we've seen them occur in late February and late November in recent years. With much colder lows.

[Gradient Keeper]

Through HR 138-144 both OP/Parallel not looking bad. Reload very close. Parallel huge improvement

[FroYoBro]

Not to mention we've seen them occur in late February and late November in recent years. With much colder lows.

It hasn't even happened yet. Come down from your cool throne guys. 

[Front Ranger]

18z shows essentially the same pattern in the mid range as 12z, just a little slower with the cold air. 

 

Models definitely seem to be trending towards a wetter N/S oriented event in this time frame. Most potential for northern WA/southern BC, for sure.

[Deweydog]

It hasn't even happened yet. Come down guys. 

 

That's what makes it the funny!  It most likely won't.  

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 156 Parallel

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122718/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_27.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Parallel gfs alert

[Snow]

I'm pretty confident of snow Thursday overnight into Friday at least initially. Should still be cold and no real great westerly or southerly push.

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122718/gfsp_z500a_namer_27.png

[Front Ranger]

It hasn't even happened yet. Come down from your cool throne guys. 

 

If PDX and/or SEA can get below 18 with this event, I'll be somewhat impressed. If they both get a sub-freezing high, I'll officially call it SIGNIFICANT and worthy of mention in the history books.

[Guest Winterdog]

About what? Model uncertainty? Yes... the idea of uncertainty in a set up like this is pretty farfetched.

Not that it matters but I was referring to Snowmizer's comment, not yours. He was remarking about how this model riding stuff is science. Yeah, as much as the model solutions bug me sometimes I know it's all on shaky ground.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's what makes it the funny! It most likely won't.

I would be surprised to see a sub freezing high at pdx Tuesday. It's probably a lock at my house though!

[Gradient Keeper]

Wish the block would thicken/widen

[Front Ranger]

That's what makes it the funny!  It most likely won't.  

 

In which case we'll be in agreement of non-significance. That's also the funny.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 162 Op

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122718/gfs_z500a_namer_28.png

[richard mann]

Yeah, but calling it a "significant" Arctic event at this point is pretty iffy.

 

.. the distinction, "what it is", perhaps better looked at as, its being "significant" in that it can in fact be looked at as, an "Arctic event".

[Deweydog]

In which case we'll be in agreement of non-significance. That's also the funny.

 

Apparently you don't have much faith in your abilities.  And that's... okay.  

[Front Ranger]

Apparently you don't have much faith in your abilities.  And that's... okay.  

 

Like Snowman, I don't think it is really significant either way.

 

See what I did there?

[FroYoBro]

Bellingham is going to have some impressive days in the near future. 

[BLI snowman]

Not to mention we've seen them occur in late February and late November in recent years. With much colder lows.

 

I get that modern standards for our climate have sunk pretty low, but I doubt anyone will be too impressed in the decades to come at seeing a couple of 32/33-ish days at the end of December. A month like January 1942 for example is literally never talked about by anyone on here and it had eight days with a 33 or lower high at PDX. Just saying, in a legitimately great winter, days like that should be seen as relatively standard. My hope is that this can be a great winter.

[Deweydog]

It's gonna be a stressful week.  

[FroYoBro]

Wow, this place is a weird disaster today. Can't we just enjoy and discuss some interesting cold weather coming up?

[Gradient Keeper]

Hr 174 Op, SO CLOSE! Very encouraging seeing both Op/Parallel in step with each other and timing moving before day 7-8 now

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122718/gfs_T850_nwus_30.png

[antipex]

Some of you need to breathe, relax, and let it go.

 

http://www.freeaffirmations.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/buddha-meditating.jpg

[stuffradio]

.. the distinction, "what it is", perhaps better looked at as, its being "significant" in that it can in fact be looked at as, an "Arctic event".

Isn't what is "significant" different to each person? What one person has experienced in their life would be different than others. So you have to make the distinction of something being "significant" to the areas history instead of the persons personal experience of temps.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 180 Parallel

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122718/gfsp_z500a_namer_31.png

[Front Ranger]

I get that modern standards for our climate have sunk pretty low, but I doubt anyone will be too impressed in the decades to come at seeing a couple of 32/33-ish days at the end of December. A month like January 1942 for example is literally never talked about by anyone on here and it had eight days with a 33 or lower high at PDX. Just saying, in a legitimately great winter, days like that should be seen as relatively standard. My hope is that this can be a great winter.

 

Hell, in 2008-09 OLM had 13 days with highs 35 or colder. So essentially, 2 weeks at least as cold as what we'll probably be seeing for 2-3 days next week!

[stuffradio]

Some of you need to breathe, relax, and let it go.

 

http://www.freeaffirmations.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/buddha-meditating.jpg

You just went there!

[Snow]

[snow_wizard]

The 18z sure has a lot of moisture tomorrow night and even into Monday morning. Not sure what it's seeing, but you never know I guess. Amazingly the reload has moved up even more on this run.

[BLI snowman]

Wow, this place is a weird disaster today. Can't we just enjoy and discuss some interesting cold weather coming up?

 

There's only so much you can discuss about individual model runs at this point. 18z is encouraging but you can only be modestly encouraged by anything that's still a week out. The main players are set in motion at this juncture though.

[Deweydog]

Wow, this place is a weird disaster today. Can't we just enjoy and discuss some interesting cold weather coming up?

 

[Snow]

[Deweydog]

Black comedy, I know, but some of these solutions are so similar to January 2011 it's uncanny.  Retribution???

[Front Ranger]

The 18z sure has a lot of moisture tomorrow night and even into Monday morning. Not sure what it's seeing, but you never know I guess. Amazingly the reload has moved up even more on this run.

 

Just comparing it to the 12z, the Arctic air is actually a little slower to move in. 

 

Please don't take offense - just going for accuracy here.

[richard mann]

Isn't what is "significant" different to each person? What one person has experienced in their life would be different than others. So you have to make the distinction of something being "significant" to the areas history instead of the persons personal experience of temps.

 

Mind the word "perhaps", perhaps in what I've said: .. is about all I can do for you here "stuffradio".