December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

12z GEM Ensembles HR 180-240 many cold members. Looks good.

 

Like pretty much all of them. The operational was an outlier.  Very interesting how the GFs operational and this have moved up the timing on the reload.

 

[MossMan]

We have that exact same table on our patio.

That table has been a part of many great times in the summer, and hopefully it will be piled with snow soon!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Sorry Andrew, had to quote you. It's a perfect example of how 99% of the members on here flip flop just as much as the models

Dude I'm twisting in the wind. Lol

[luvssnow_spokane]

We have that exact same table on our patio.

I used to also until someone stole it... Hey wait!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the air masses will collide over eugene. Salem north will be dry and cold.

[Bryant]

I think the air masses will collide over eugene. Salem north will be dry and cold.

Oh no you didn't!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cant read while driving that easy. How did 12z look?

[Gradient Keeper]

I think the air masses will collide over eugene. Salem north will be dry and cold.

I request an immediate ban

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122712/ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png

[jaya]

My Guess is that the ECMWF will be more like the GFS op in the 5-6 day period. Big differences due to that stuff in the central Pac.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think the air masses will collide over eugene. Salem north will be dry and cold.

*slap*  I hope that hurt...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[snow_wizard]

Cant read while driving that easy. How did 12z look?

 

GFS operational was amazing.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 144 lurking just to the north

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122712/ecmwf_T850_nwus_7.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

GFS operational was amazing.

looking like a battle of airmass might happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 168

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122712/ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122712/ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF looks promising at day 7. The Kona low is pretty strong and well placed with cold air getting very close.

[Deweydog]

I talked to January 2011 this morning and he's laughing his a** off.

 

Jaya is absolutely right. There are too many moving parts to take any run seriously right now. Carry on...

[jaya]

Could be very interesting. In the model mean - BC looks very interesting, WA also, OR ... just maybe. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2014122712&fh=168

[Bryant]

The ECMWF looks promising at day 7. The Kona low is pretty strong and well placed with cold air getting very close.

Low pressure placement at hour 168 is similar to what other models have shown as well.

[Farmboy]

I talked to January 2011 this morning and he's laughing his a** off.

 

Jaya is absolutely right. There are too many moving parts to take any run seriously right now. Carry on...

Dude, you"re pissing on everyone's parade...

[jaya]

Could be very interesting. In the model mean - BC looks very interesting, WA also, OR ... just maybe. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2014122712&fh=168

The 12z run combined with last nights solutions anyway. Plenty of time for change as mentioned by Dewey...too many parts in play for my mind to follow.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 192

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122712/ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

HR 192

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122712/ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png

Oh shoot

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dude, you"re pissing on everyone's parade...

Um no... he is right. This isn't a card game or some fantasy. It's science. There is no parade green horn.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF certainly gets cold, but it's dry. Good enough for this time frame though. By day 9 the block goes up to the pole.

 

The GFS ensembles look good for cold around day 7. Interesting how the GFS has suddenly moved the timing up so much.

[seattleweatherguy]

Could be very interesting. In the model mean - BC looks very interesting, WA also, OR ... just maybe. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2014122712&fh=168

book mark saved!

[Guest Winterdog]

The ECMWF certainly gets cold, but it's dry. Good enough for this time frame though. By day 9 the block goes up to the pole.

 

The GFS ensembles look good for cold around day 7. Interesting how the GFS has suddenly moved the timing up so much.

With any luck we could have snow on the ground from the first event through day 10.

[Guest Winterdog]

At 240 it looks like wave number three sitting up there in northern BC.

[snow_wizard]

With any luck we could have snow on the ground from the first event through day 10.

That would be awesome!

 

It appears we will have some kind of a second cold shot, but the details are fuzzy to say the least.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Dude, you"re pissing on everyone's parade...

And he is usually always right... Enjoy

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble is getting stronger indication for the second event.  Both the operational and control drop to -15.

 

[Farmboy]

Um no... he is right. This isn't a card game or some fantasy. It's science. There is no parade green horn.

Forgive me, got a little worked up...

[Guest Winterdog]

Farmboy, on 27 Dec 2014 - 11:05 AM, said:

Forgive me, got a little worked up...

I'm hoping he was being sarcastic.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Forgive me, got a little worked up...

No problem.

[Farmboy]

I'm hoping he was being sarcastic.

Yeah, I know it's silly to get worked up over this stuff.  I was just pointing out that Dewey's ideas are not what the 75 people looking at the forum right now want to hear...

[Front Ranger]

I suppose weatherphil is lounged back in his recliner, smoking a large cigar, has a giant smile on his face, and is flipping back and forth between this forum and the 12z GFS model loop. 

 

Phil is a stratosphere guy, and expected a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event to lead the way to a -AO/-NAO with this one. That was his reasoning as he made clear many times, and that has not occurred...so if the reasoning behind a prediction means anything, Phil is hanging on to runs just like the rest of us, hoping for the best.

[westcoastexpat]

Phil is a stratosphere guy, and expected a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event to lead the way to a -AO/-NAO with this one. That was his reasoning as he made clear many times, and that has not occurred...so if the reasoning behind a prediction means anything, Phil is hanging on to runs just like the rest of us, hoping for the best.

This.

[Deweydog]

Phil is a stratosphere guy, and expected a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event to lead the way to a -AO/-NAO with this one. That was his reasoning as he made clear many times, and that has not occurred...so if the reasoning behind a prediction means anything, Phil is hanging on to runs just like the rest of us, hoping for the best.

His 2014 street cred really bugs you, doesn't it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lolz

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122712/gfs_asnow_wus_33.png