December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow...... 00z NAM has a 1063mb high over east-central BC. This could drive even colder arctic air southward

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014122800/namconus_T850_nwus_13.png

1064mb next frame!

[Gradient Keeper]

1064mb next frame!

1065mb HR 39 ..... crazy nuts

[seattleweatherguy]

Wow...... 00z NAM has a 1063mb high over east-central BC. This could drive even colder arctic air southward

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014122800/namconus_T850_nwus_13.png

Hope so

[Snow]

Well this is certainly positive news. It looks like the GFS was better than the EURO nailing this upcoming weather event. The UKMET was actually the best. Poor GEM is lagging behind. Can the GFS lead the way for a snowstorm next weekend? UKMET only runs to hour 144 so we can start looking at it in a couple days.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

[Gradient Keeper]

1069mb HR 57!

31.56 in

[stuffradio]

What would a 1065mb high do for us?

[Deweydog]

What would a 1065mb high do for us?

If you have a barometer it will go up.

[Gradient Keeper]

What would a 1065mb high do for us?

Should blast deep arctic air southward

[bainbridgekid]

1069 mb high in SE BC at hour 54 on the 00z NAM.

 

That's about as strong as I've seen. If only there had been more cold air to draw from this would be one hell of a blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

1069 mb high in SE BC at hour 54 on the 00z NAM.

 

That's about as strong as I've seen. If only there had been more cold air to draw from this would be one hell of a blast.

I've never seen one that strong..... crazy

[MikeBC]

What would a 1065mb high do for us?

Very strong outflow winds in the Fraser Valley. I see 1050mb is high but I don't know what 1065 would do to the valley.

[Snow]

1069 mb high in SE BC at hour 54 on the 00z NAM.

 

That's about as strong as I've seen. If only there had been more cold air to draw from this would be one hell of a blast.

I've never seen one that strong..... crazy

That's tremendous, the colder we can get, the slower we will moderate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1069 mb high in SE BC at hour 54 on the 00z NAM.

 

That's about as strong as I've seen. If only there had been more cold air to draw from this would be one hell of a blast.

 

Exactly

[Poulsbo Snowman]

By Monday night, the dewpoints will be around 0.  Should be very very dry air.

[GHweatherChris]

Well this is certainly positive news. It looks like the GFS was better than the EURO nailing this upcoming weather event. The UKMET was actually the best. Poor GEM is lagging behind. Can the GFS lead the way for a snowstorm next weekend? UKMET only runs to hour 144 so we can start looking at it in a couple days.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

The event hasn't even started yet, way too early to see which one verified best yet.

[snow_wizard]

Very strong outflow winds in the Fraser Valley. I see 1050mb is high but I don't know what 1065 would do to the valley.

How strong the wind is has more to do with pressure difference than how high it is over the interior of BC.

[The Swamp]

Snow is the ultimate cheerleader. You gotta love the positive attitude.

[GHweatherChris]

Things are looking more snowy.  

[jaya]

Exactly

I wonder if this will break our all time record high pressure in this area when it comes down. It may make people's ears pop.

[snow_wizard]

Nobody has pointed out the one trend that hasn't changed on any of the ensemble maps.  The overall positive trend in the average temp. 

 

Debbie Downer here reminding everyone our coldest "average" days are numbered...

 

Of course then there is February 2014, February 1996, February 1995 etc etc etc

 

I don't think that is true now.  Also...the GEM and ECMWF ensembles means are pretty cold.

 

[jaya]

Things are looking more snowy.  

Does not look snowy to me at all. Just a little bit as arctic air comes in. inch or less.

[HighlandExperience]

Does not look snowy to me at all. Just a little bit as arctic air comes in. inch or less.

 

At this point one inch going into the week would be enough for me. 

[GHweatherChris]

Does not look snowy to me at all. Just a little bit as arctic air comes in. inch or less.

Sorry, there appears to be a bit more moisture available when it may be cold enough for snow. 

 

Also, I would easily take an inch if that is all that I can get.

[GHweatherChris]

At this point one inch going into the week would be enough for me. 

Exactly.

[GHweatherChris]

 

I don't think that is true now.  Also...the GEM and ECMWF ensembles means are pretty cold.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

I don't think you understand what he meant.

 

He is talking about the red line, the climate average.

[snow_wizard]

I don't think you understand what he meant.

Oh...I see.

 

The thing is the coldest average temps of the year used be in mid January. Bottoming out in December is only a recent tendency that could easily change.

[MikeBC]

How strong the wind is has more to do with pressure difference than how high it is over the interior of BC.

That sounds right. I don't know what the 30mb difference would do to the valley. It looks stronger than average events in the past to me. I never stop learning

[Guest Winterdog]

Oh...I see.

 

The thing is the coldest average temps of the year used be in mid January. Bottoming out in December is only a recent tendency that could easily change.

I believe the coldest week for Seattle used to be the 3rd week of January around the 22nd.

[GHweatherChris]

Oh...I see.

 

The thing is the coldest average temps of the year used be in mid January. Bottoming out in December is only a recent tendency that could easily change.

Possibly, but I think it would take a very long extreme cold period to even put a dent into it.

 

I do however like the fact that the second blast is trending colder on it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the 516 thickness line almost gets to PDX on the NAM.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Raw data from the 00Z NAM for Seattle:

                        Station ID: KSEA Lat:   47.44 Long: -122.31                                                         NAM Model Run:  0Z DEC 28, 2014                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr   54hr   60hr   66hr   72hr   78hr   84hr    Sfc Prs(mb):    1001.9 1001.2 1004.6 1007.4 1006.0 1005.6 1006.0 1011.6 1014.5 1019.9 1023.9 1027.0 1025.4 1024.0 1020.3    Mean SLP (mb):  1017.8 1017.2 1020.6 1023.6 1022.1 1021.8 1022.3 1028.1 1030.9 1036.6 1040.9 1044.3 1042.4 1041.2 1037.8    2m agl Tmp (F):   40.4   38.3   36.7   36.7   36.0   34.7   30.0   27.5   26.6   20.0   16.8   18.7   22.8   19.7   20.0    2m agl Dewpt(F):  38.6   36.0   35.1   34.7   34.0   33.4   26.8   19.4   16.6    9.7    4.2    3.9    8.3    6.2    2.6    2m agl RH (%):      93     91     94     92     92     95     88     71     65     64     57     52     53     55     46    10m agl Dir:       262    246    262    244    207    315     28     49     43     59     65     66     49     72     79    10m agl Spd(kt):     6      8      5      2      2      1      6      8      6      7      8      7      4      3      2    6hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.12   0.13   0.07   0.02   0.06   0.10   0.03   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00    AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.12   0.25   0.32   0.34   0.40   0.50   0.53   0.53   0.53   0.53   0.53   0.53   0.53   0.53    Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 151.1   23.9   29.5   16.4   25.9   65.6    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    Sfc CINH (J/kg):  -3.3  -12.1   -5.6   -2.1   -5.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   -0.5   -1.1   -0.8   -0.9   -0.3    0-3km Hel(J/kg): 111.1  147.3  117.3   85.1  107.8   28.6  -13.1   30.2   44.7   44.3   39.6   89.0   77.6  150.9  151.1    Precip H20 (in):  0.39   0.41   0.36   0.34   0.32   0.31   0.26   0.22   0.18   0.14   0.09   0.07   0.11   0.13   0.10    Lifted Index(C):   3.6    2.4    4.8    5.1    6.3    6.5    5.6    2.9    4.0    7.7   17.6   20.5   20.8   18.0   15.6    700mb VV(-ub/s):   1.7    2.8   -0.6   -0.6    0.1    3.7    0.4   -1.2   -1.7   -2.2   -4.6   -5.1   -2.4   -1.8    0.1    Thk1000-500mb(m)5311.8 5279.0 5269.1 5261.9 5262.6 5230.4 5198.5 5182.6 5182.5 5167.0 5206.5 5281.5 5340.9 5383.1 5398.2    Thk1000-850mb(m)1313.8 1309.3 1302.6 1299.7 1300.0 1295.6 1286.7 1278.9 1275.0 1261.9 1255.6 1258.2 1270.8 1277.1 1281.5    Thk850-700mb(m):1514.3 1507.2 1500.4 1499.2 1496.6 1489.5 1485.2 1484.2 1483.5 1478.6 1480.7 1491.4 1516.8 1537.3 1545.4    SWEAT Index:     165.4  210.8  112.7  104.7   67.6   53.5   97.7  162.7   82.2   65.6  117.0  115.5   96.4   78.2   73.4    Total Totals Idx  52.0   54.7   50.9   51.1   48.7   47.9   52.1   54.3   50.4   40.8   18.1    9.2   -0.7   -4.3   -3.3    Frz Hgt(ft amsl)  3741   3287   2706   2510   2379   2070    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    0WetBlbHgt(amsl)  3515   3147   2645   2440   2322   2042  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000    Equil Prs (mb):   1002   1001   1005   1007   1006   1006   1006   1012   1014   1020   1024   1027   1025   1024   1020    Equil Hgt(amsl):   427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    Hail Size(in):    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00    Conv Wind Gust:   26.5   24.6   20.7   19.1   19.8   16.4    3.1    5.2    4.9    5.5    8.5   11.2    9.9    9.0    8.4    Showalter Index:   4.3    3.3    5.8    5.8    6.9    7.7    5.8    4.8    6.2   10.5   20.4   22.9   23.9   21.3   18.7    Cap Strength(C):-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9    Storm Dir (deg):   313    325    347    353    343    340     75    102     72     79     86     87     79     64     47    Storm Spd (kts):    25     21     17     14     15     11      9     12     11     14     22     26     23     21     20    2m HeatIndex(F):    40     38     37     37     36     35     30     27     27     20     17     19     23     20     20    2m WindChill(F):    40     32     32     37     36     35     23     19     19     10      6      9     16     14     20   

It's gonna be coooooold!

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go.......

[GHweatherChris]

Raw data from the 00Z NAM for Seattle:

                        Station ID: KSEA Lat:   47.44 Long: -122.31                                                         NAM Model Run:  0Z DEC 28, 2014                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr   54hr   60hr   66hr   72hr   78hr   84hr    Sfc Prs(mb):    1001.9 1001.2 1004.6 1007.4 1006.0 1005.6 1006.0 1011.6 1014.5 1019.9 1023.9 1027.0 1025.4 1024.0 1020.3    Mean SLP (mb):  1017.8 1017.2 1020.6 1023.6 1022.1 1021.8 1022.3 1028.1 1030.9 1036.6 1040.9 1044.3 1042.4 1041.2 1037.8    2m agl Tmp (F):   40.4   38.3   36.7   36.7   36.0   34.7   30.0   27.5   26.6   20.0   16.8   18.7   22.8   19.7   20.0    2m agl Dewpt(F):  38.6   36.0   35.1   34.7   34.0   33.4   26.8   19.4   16.6    9.7    4.2    3.9    8.3    6.2    2.6    2m agl RH (%):      93     91     94     92     92     95     88     71     65     64     57     52     53     55     46    10m agl Dir:       262    246    262    244    207    315     28     49     43     59     65     66     49     72     79    10m agl Spd(kt):     6      8      5      2      2      1      6      8      6      7      8      7      4      3      2    6hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.12   0.13   0.07   0.02   0.06   0.10   0.03   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00    AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.12   0.25   0.32   0.34   0.40   0.50   0.53   0.53   0.53   0.53   0.53   0.53   0.53   0.53    Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 151.1   23.9   29.5   16.4   25.9   65.6    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    Sfc CINH (J/kg):  -3.3  -12.1   -5.6   -2.1   -5.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   -0.5   -1.1   -0.8   -0.9   -0.3    0-3km Hel(J/kg): 111.1  147.3  117.3   85.1  107.8   28.6  -13.1   30.2   44.7   44.3   39.6   89.0   77.6  150.9  151.1    Precip H20 (in):  0.39   0.41   0.36   0.34   0.32   0.31   0.26   0.22   0.18   0.14   0.09   0.07   0.11   0.13   0.10    Lifted Index(C):   3.6    2.4    4.8    5.1    6.3    6.5    5.6    2.9    4.0    7.7   17.6   20.5   20.8   18.0   15.6    700mb VV(-ub/s):   1.7    2.8   -0.6   -0.6    0.1    3.7    0.4   -1.2   -1.7   -2.2   -4.6   -5.1   -2.4   -1.8    0.1    Thk1000-500mb(m)5311.8 5279.0 5269.1 5261.9 5262.6 5230.4 5198.5 5182.6 5182.5 5167.0 5206.5 5281.5 5340.9 5383.1 5398.2    Thk1000-850mb(m)1313.8 1309.3 1302.6 1299.7 1300.0 1295.6 1286.7 1278.9 1275.0 1261.9 1255.6 1258.2 1270.8 1277.1 1281.5    Thk850-700mb(m):1514.3 1507.2 1500.4 1499.2 1496.6 1489.5 1485.2 1484.2 1483.5 1478.6 1480.7 1491.4 1516.8 1537.3 1545.4    SWEAT Index:     165.4  210.8  112.7  104.7   67.6   53.5   97.7  162.7   82.2   65.6  117.0  115.5   96.4   78.2   73.4    Total Totals Idx  52.0   54.7   50.9   51.1   48.7   47.9   52.1   54.3   50.4   40.8   18.1    9.2   -0.7   -4.3   -3.3    Frz Hgt(ft amsl)  3741   3287   2706   2510   2379   2070    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    0WetBlbHgt(amsl)  3515   3147   2645   2440   2322   2042  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000    Equil Prs (mb):   1002   1001   1005   1007   1006   1006   1006   1012   1014   1020   1024   1027   1025   1024   1020    Equil Hgt(amsl):   427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    427    Hail Size(in):    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00    Conv Wind Gust:   26.5   24.6   20.7   19.1   19.8   16.4    3.1    5.2    4.9    5.5    8.5   11.2    9.9    9.0    8.4    Showalter Index:   4.3    3.3    5.8    5.8    6.9    7.7    5.8    4.8    6.2   10.5   20.4   22.9   23.9   21.3   18.7    Cap Strength(C):-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9    Storm Dir (deg):   313    325    347    353    343    340     75    102     72     79     86     87     79     64     47    Storm Spd (kts):    25     21     17     14     15     11      9     12     11     14     22     26     23     21     20    2m HeatIndex(F):    40     38     37     37     36     35     30     27     27     20     17     19     23     20     20    2m WindChill(F):    40     32     32     37     36     35     23     19     19     10      6      9     16     14     20   

It's gonna be coooooold!

Well that was uncalled for.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 30 Op may be digging trough a bit further west

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_z500_vort_nwus_6.png

[snow_wizard]

Possibly, but I think it would take a very long extreme cold period to even put a dent into it.

 

I do however like the fact that the second blast is trending colder on it.

I suppose but I always look at January as being the coldest month of the year anyway. It has the greatest potential for deep prolonged cold of any month by far.

[GHweatherChris]

I suppose but I always look at January as being the coldest month of the year anyway. It has the greatest potential for deep prolonged cold of any month by far.

Logic to me dictates that as well, however we all know that has not been happening in this neck of the woods for a very long time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I suppose but I always look at January as being the coldest month of the year anyway. It has the greatest potential for deep prolonged cold of any month by far.

 

Yes even our December's with the biggest arctic outbreak usual have some kind of torch on either side of them. December 1919, 1924, 1972, etc... all had massive torches. 

[The Swamp]

Well that was uncalled for.

I'll second that.

[GHweatherChris]

I'll second that.

Page clutter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like we can get more sustained blocking in January historically, and it is still inversion season. Aside from weaker cold airmasses and CAA we don't see sustained cold in February because we are out of peak inversion season.