December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Page clutter.

 

Hey he was trying, just suggest he post the link next time.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

There was good info in there which could have been discussed.  Guess I won't do that again to avoid irritating this forum.

[GHweatherChris]

There was good info in there which could have been discussed.  Guess I won't do that again to avoid irritating this forum.

Its all good Poulsbo, just hard to read on here.

 

Post the link next time.

[Gradient Keeper]

There was good info in there which could have been discussed.  Guess I won't do that again to avoid irritating this forum.

I had no problem with it. Big deal...... at HR 60 16 degrees in Seattle however IS a big deal!

[Gradient Keeper]

I just checked the Bellingham to Williams Lake, BC gradient to get an idea if arctic air was starting to build down into southern British Columbia. It is. The gradient just went flat meaning a switch to offshore flow now in the Fraser River valley. It will only increase from this point on as pressure rises increase.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KBLI+CYWL

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 90 Op.... beefy looking block

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_z500a_namer_16.png

[Bryant]

Well that was uncalled for.

And quoting the whole post wasn't?

[FroYoBro]

How is everyone dealing with the stress? I'm currently chugging vodka while taking a warm bath. 

[GHweatherChris]

And quoting the whole post wasn't?

On purpose.  People need to lighten up on here.

[snow_wizard]

I'm already betting the second wave happens on this run. You can tell by the surface pressure distribution at hour 108.

[bainbridgekid]

00z NAM bottoms out 850 mb temps at -11 and thicknesses at 516 for SEA Tuesday morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 Op

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 132 reload/blast lurking to the north

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_T850_nwus_23.png

[richard mann]

There was good info in there which could have been discussed.  Guess I won't do that again to avoid irritating this forum.

 

.. The next time you try to post data like this, try putting "code" tags around it. (The whole of what you post.) 

[code]....[/code]

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 Parallel sharp shortwave south of Anchorage as offshore ridge merges with Aleutian block

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122800/gfsp_z500a_namer_21.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weird little low up there in the norther GOA

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122800/gfsp_z500a_namer_21.png

[Front Ranger]

At hour 144, it looks like the 0z is going to be a bit slower with the reload and probably not as cold as the last couple runs. At least within believable range.

 

General pattern is still very similar, though. Good to see consistency with that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

HR 120 Parallel sharp shortwave south of Anchorage as offshore ridge merges with Aleutian block

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122800/gfsp_z500a_namer_21.png

 

I hadn't seen that feature before.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 144, it looks like the 0z is going to be a bit slower with the reload and probably not as cold as the last couple runs. At least within believable range.

 

General pattern is still very similar, though. Good to see consistency with that.

 

And the 18z was not as good as the 12z...Though the ensembles imprioved.

[bainbridgekid]

That 988mb low just South of Anchorage at hour 120 on the parallel is weird. No idea how that would effect the block but I don't love the look of it.

 

That feature is totally missing on the operational which looks pretty similar to the last few runs in general so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 150 possible blast nearing

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_T850_nwus_26.png

[Gradient Keeper]

I hadn't seen that feature before.

 

 

That 988mb low just South of Anchorage at hour 120 on the parallel is weird. No idea how that would effect the block.

 

That feature is totally missing on the operational which looks pretty similar to the last few runs in general so far.

Yeah..... it's weird.

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_z500a_namer_26.png

[Front Ranger]

The Arctic air kind of stalls out around the Canadian border on this run, and the low to the south fizzles.

 

Not a great run, but again the important pieces are still in place for something good.

[GHweatherChris]

That reload better happen.

 

According to some that is close to the timeframe to watch for arctic air.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 156 Parallel can be thrown in the garage everything is much further east

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122800/gfsp_z500a_namer_27.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ugh I think we see what that shortwave does on the parallel.

[Gradient Keeper]

Body of block too far north on the Op

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_z500a_namer_28.png

[Gradient Keeper]

It's soooooo close on the Op though... just stalled

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_T850_nwus_28.png

[Front Ranger]

HR 156 Parallel can be thrown in the garage everything is much further east

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122800/gfsp_z500a_namer_27.png

 

Nasty. That's a pretty warm pattern for most of the U.S.

[Guest Winterdog]

Kind of funny.  Here we are again where we were one day ago.  I've got to find a different hobby.

[Snow]

SCORE!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_T2m_nwus_34.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Op says, sorry for the delay.....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_T2m_nwus_34.png

[richard mann]

General assertion mode. Basic perspective. Argumentative. (Scientific argument.) In line with the general context here.
 
.. Show me one model run that doesn't keep the main gut of cold over Canada, not more centrally focused north of the U.S. / Canadian border, through the 3rd. .Past or more current.-A link to whatever post with graphic is fine.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 192 Op arctic air blasting through Gorge
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_33.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Very strong east winds HR 204

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_34.png

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_T850_nwus_34.png

[Snow]

Very cold!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_T2m_nwus_36.png

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, but it's all past the resolution change...on the 12z GFS, Arctic air began seeping in around hour 162, which translates to hour 150 this run. Major delay. Obviously we want this trend to reverse.

[seattleweatherguy]

so how does this map work are these highs or lows? Something historic?

SCORE!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122800/gfs_T2m_nwus_34.png