December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[richard mann]

In Phil I trust.

http://www.google.co...103.ubKu ojVPjE

 

— Have another beer.

[Snow]

[TT-SEA]

For future reference (and something I have noticed a few times now) the parallel GFS does not represent precipitation type very well.    For example... right now it shows nothing by frozen precip falling across Western Washington and that is clearly wrong.    

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122806/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_1.png

 

 

Its 35 with drizzle here right now.    And 40 with light rain at SEA.

[antipex]

For future reference (and something I have noticed a few times now) the parallel GFS does not represent precipitation type very well.    For example... right now it shows nothing by frozen precip falling across Western Washington and that is clearly wrong.    

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122806/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_1.png

 

 

Its 35 with drizzle here right now.    And 40 with light rain at SEA.

 

You posted a map that's zoomed pretty far out over North America that doesn't show the details.

 

This view of the same frame shows the parallel is doing a pretty D**n good job:

 

[Randyc321]

You posted a map that's zoomed pretty far out over North America that doesn't show the details.

 

This view of the same frame shows the parallel is doing a pretty D**n good job:

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_1.png

I just like when you run the 12z out to about 5 am tomorrow it shows a blob of moisture hanging over West Kitsap/Hood Canal.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014122812&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=257

[Gradient Keeper]

 I wasn't expecting 6z Ensembles to look so good... Additionally the 6-10, 8-14 day Analog Composite continues to show an excellent upper level pattern

[Randyc321]

I just like when you run the 12z out to about 5 am tomorrow it shows a blob of moisture hanging over West Kitsap/Hood Canal.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014122812&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=257

The temps do look iffy.  Anybody want take a stab at temps in the time frame in this area?

[Timmy]

12z gfs is slightly more moist than the 06z for tonight/tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 96 Op

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122812/gfs_z500a_namer_17.png

[antipex]

 I wasn't expecting 6z Ensembles to look so good... Additionally the 6-10, 8-14 day Analog Composite continues to show an excellent upper level pattern

 

I think the ensembles are slowly trending colder over time and the average shows this. Hopefully the operational will figure things out soon.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 Op

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122812/gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 96 Parallel very different

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122812/gfsp_z500a_namer_17.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 126 Op love that southward digging shortwave

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122812/gfs_z500a_namer_22.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Over Vancouver Island already at HR 126

[Timmy]

HR 120 appears to be snow or some  frozen mix over the puget sound.

[Gradient Keeper]

Parallel appears to be shoving block east as too much energy is pushing into the west/northwest side of block

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 150 OP cold air stalling a bit.... for now

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122812/gfs_T850_nwus_26.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Close! HR 150 Op

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122812/gfs_z500a_namer_26.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 168 dropping south into Columbia Basin. Timing has moved ahead big time

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122812/gfs_T850_nwus_29.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like that may be as cold as this run gets.. Ridge moving too close.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122812/gfs_z500a_namer_29.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 168-180 Op Arctic air continues to move down through the Columbia Basin and east wind increases pulling renewed modified blast into PDX

[Timmy]

meanwhile, snow is mixing in with the rain here now.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 180 -14c The Dalles.... nice

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 192 Op

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122812/gfs_T2m_nwus_33.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Parallel shows ridge moves east, inversion, but very cold air trapped under it over Columbia Basin and very strong probably east wind storm. Isobars look very tight at HR 186

[westcoastexpat]

00Z EURO for those who like the images:

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I think the ensembles are slowly trending colder over time and the average shows this. Hopefully the operational will figure things out soon.

That's certainly plausible

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Op, not a bad run... One thing that has been consistent with the Op is the southward extent of the 2nd arctic blast and duration.. more like one quick massive shot.... Timing moving ahead on 12z is promising though... but again we're a bit too far away to know.

[westcoastexpat]

I'm not sure that I'm completely buying the magnitude of the ridge amplification as seen in the Euro. It seems a little overdone given what appears to be driving it.

[stuffradio]

12Z op is still crazy if it verified for next weekend.

[Randyc321]

meanwhile, snow is mixing in with the rain here now.

Yeah, about 5:15 I had a pretty heavy hail shower.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM no reload... quite mild in fact

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh well. At least we are going to see some cold and then some inversions.

[Snow]

[Randyc321]

Hey guys, can I ask a question?

 

Do the 6/12z GFS show as much freezing rain from 1/7-1/8 as I think it does for Puget Sound?  If so,  That would be horrible.  And yes, I know it's way out there, but if so bears watching.

 

Trying to learn and it looks like that might not be snow,  And why it would be which type of precip.

Thanks

[ShawniganLake]

Yesterdays Euro EPO forecast

 

And PNA forecast.  Seems strange that the Euro has the ridge moving overhead with the PNA ensemble being so negative, for early January.

 

[westcoastexpat]

Yesterdays Euro EPO forecast

euro-epo.png

 

And PNA forecast. Seems strange that the Euro has the ridge moving overhead with the PNA ensemble being so negative, for early January.

 

euro-pna.png

Agreed. The ridging on the Euro seems suspect.

[WS Snow]

Cliff Mass has said several times that the best chance the PNW has of receiving snowfall is usually on the way in or out with arctic fronts.  Seems like we are continually receiving no moisture with arctic boundaries the past few years.  Everything has been bone dry. With so relatively few chances of widespread cold (high temps in the 30's) in a winter season, it's disappointing to continually miss out when it's here.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF HR 72

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122812/ecmwf_z500a_namer_4.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 96.... Similar to GFS Parallel shortwave digging into block... can't be a good thing

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122812/ecmwf_z500a_namer_5.png