December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What???   You might be going back to OK???

 

Yeah, definitely not a done deal, but it might be for the best since my wife has so much family there to help with the kids and I really have no family around here, plus she has some family members not doing so well. Depends on job situation and everything. If everything worked out perfectly we would keep our house here and rent it out so we could move back when the kids get a little older. 

 

I'd prefer to stay here, but right now its about 50/50. Sometimes you have to sacrifice for family.

[Phil]

Yeah, definitely not a done deal, but it might be for the best since my wife has so much family there to help with the kids and I really have no family around here, plus she has some family members not doing so well. Depends on job situation and everything. If everything worked out perfectly we would keep our house here and rent it out so we could move back when the kids get a little older.

 

I'd prefer to stay here, but right now its about 50/50. Sometimes you have to sacrifice for family.

Well if you go back, at least you can look forward to the most prolific thunderstorm activity in the world. A lot of wx geeks would kill to live there, just for that.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I said it before... will say it again... I think we are done watching the models so closely with every run.   We are going to have to reset once again.    Hopefully we will not run out of time with a Nino in place.

I'M DONE...  Not even worth the time as a reset is in order and gonna take at least two weeks or longer, or never... Who knows.

[Phil]

Norman, Oklahoma's long term average is probably about the same if not less than Seattle. The only difference is that it generally snows there at least once a year. Definitely less than where you live right now. Plus Oklahoma is an unenlightened backwater. Take it from someone who has lived in even a more affluent area of the state and if I get on with ConoccoPhillips may again soon.

 

Lawrence, KS would be a nice choice. Decent school, much more snow, nicer area overall. Off of that list I would go for with SLC for overall program and the area. SLC is more cosmopolitan than you think.

Salt Lake City sucks if you want to see legit, 12"+ storms on a semi-regular basis. The Wasatch front (Park City et al) is another story..awesome climate.

[Snowman5678]

Norman, Oklahoma's long term average is probably about the same if not less than Seattle. The only difference is that it generally snows there at least once a year. Definitely less than where you live right now. Plus Oklahoma is an unenlightened backwater. Take it from someone who has lived in even a more affluent area of the state and if I get on with ConoccoPhillips may again soon. 

 

Lawrence, KS would be a nice choice. Decent school, much more snow, nicer area overall. Off of that list I would go for with SLC for overall program and the area. SLC is more cosmopolitan than you think.

 

Yeah, out of all of them my top choice is probably Utah. Yeah Norman's average is certainly lower than mine. Probably the only school on that list with a lower average. Kansas probably averages about the same as I do. Granted Oklahoma has wicked thunderstorms and the meteorology program there is best in the nation. Although Utah is really nice and still has a really good program.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well if you go back, at least you can look forward to the most prolific thunderstorm activity in the world. A lot of wx geeks would kill to live there, just for that.

 

I lived about 40 miles from where the big Picher tornado was in 2008. Actually had a baseball game that day, the thunderstorm that caused it developed about 10-15 north of there and exploded as it moved east. 

[Snowman5678]

Out of those, Albany NY is definitely the winner. If you want to go extreme, try Oswego University.

 

Yeah, they average 4 more inches of snow a year than Utah. Although to my knowledge their atmospheric sciences program isnt the best. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, out of all of them my top choice is probably Utah. Yeah Norman's average is certainly lower than mine. Probably the only school on that list with a lower average. Kansas probably averages about the same as I do. Granted Oklahoma has wicked thunderstorms and the meteorology program there is best in the nation. Although Utah is really nice and still has a really good program.

 

Lawrence averages quite a bit more than your location...I've never looked up Lawrence, but my wife grew up near Topeka and I looked up their average once and its around 30" I believe.

[Gradient Keeper]

....El Niño Watch....
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
December 29 2014

ENSO - neutral conditions continue.*
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the Pacific Ocean. There is an approximately 65% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.*

Last weeks SST Departures:
Niño 4: 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4: 0.8ºC
Niño 3: 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2: 0.0ºC

The new latest weekly SST Departures:
Niño 4: 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4: 0.7ºC
Niño 3: 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2: -0.2ºC

Full technical and detailed information can be found here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

[Phil]

Yeah, out of all of them my top choice is probably Utah. Yeah Norman's average is certainly lower than mine. Probably the only school on that list with a lower average. Kansas probably averages about the same as I do. Granted Oklahoma has wicked thunderstorms and the meteorology program there is best in the nation. Although Utah is really nice and still has a really good program.

School is great, but I wouldn't be able to handle the valley climate. Too arid, scraping the bottom of the barrel for precip.

 

Best of luck to you, whatever choice you decide to make.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF is underway!

[Gradient Keeper]

The CAA with this modified front is absolutely pathetic.

Modified front isn't here yet... It's just now moving westward through the eastern Gorge.. Strong NE winds east of The Dalles throughout the lower Columbia Basin. Today wasn't supposed to be cold with CAA taking not over until 4-6 PM. WRF shows that and the surge of coldest air arriving this evening through Tuesday. My temp has dropped to 39.7 with increasing E-NE wind.

[Phil]

Yeah, they average 4 more inches of snow a year than Utah. Although to my knowledge their atmospheric sciences program isnt the best.

School quality is always the top priority. But if you're weighting winter climate, I'd definitely go with Michigan or New York mostly due to better large scale storm dynamics. You get a lot of 1-2" snows that make up SLC's average.

 

Have you by chance considered U.M.D? That's where I graduated from..great program and a very dynamic climate. Only downfalls are insane rush hour traffic, stifling summer humidity, and the occasional dud winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Modified front isn't here yet... It's just now moving westward through the eastern Gorge.. Strong NE winds east of The Dalles throughout the Columbia Basin. Today wasn't supposed to be cold or CAA taking over until 4-6 PM. WRF shows that and the surgeo f coldest air arriving this evening through Tuesday. My temp has dropped to 39.7 with increasing E-NE wind.

 

I was talking more about BLI which has a howling NE wind a temp in the mid 30s still. Omak is still 29 for pete's sake! 

 

Just the late November push of cold air had a much more defined boundary.

[Gradient Keeper]

I was talking more about BLI which has a howling NE wind a temp in the mid 30s still. Omak is still 29 for pete's sake! 

 

Just the late November push of cold air had a much more defined boundary.

Good point

[MossMan]

Having lived in the Midwest as a weather geek, its great if you have a nice cellar and great insurance, other than that, I would rather live within a days drive. Minneapolis would be my top choice for that reason.

Would be one of my top choices as well if I ever had to move out of state. Would be quite hard to leave Washington, though. I do have family north of Minneapolis and really did enjoy that area. No so much in July though. We will one day move but it will most likely be the east slopes of the cascades, or the north east corner of the state. This area of northern Snohomish co is just getting too crazy with way too many people moving in here...and the crime and traffic that comes along with that. Sad to see the small town I grew up in (Smokey Point/Seven Lakes) turn into a Lynnwood north  

[MossMan]

Good point

DP's must be low, though, everything is freezing up at work over the last hour or so. I have been rushing around trying to get all the water out of the dog crates that were washed before they froze solid, and the slushy water I was dumping out was freezing to the concrete almost instantly.

We have clouds that seem to be forming right over my head as well, not sure if that is the arctic front or not though.

[HighlandExperience]

Would be one of my top choices as well if I ever had to move out of state. Would be quite hard to leave Washington, though. I do have family north of Minneapolis and really did enjoy that area. No so much in July though. We will one day move but it will most likely be the east slopes of the cascades, or the north east corner of the state. This area of northern Snohomish co is just getting too crazy with way too many people moving in here...and the crime and traffic that comes along with that. Sad to see the small town I grew up in (Smokey Point/Seven Lakes) turn into a Lynnwood north 

 

Honestly most "rural" areas and "suburbs" away from the core of metro areas are getting worse across America in terms of drug use and depressed economic conditions. Small towns used to be good places to lives. Not anymore.

 

If I were to choose the midwest, I would go with Minneapolis. Out of all the places mentioned it is the most clean, progressive, and great for jobs oppurtunities.

[ShawniganLake]

I was talking more about BLI which has a howling NE wind a temp in the mid 30s still. Omak is still 29 for pete's sake!

 

Just the late November push of cold air had a much more defined boundary.

Abbotsford is up to 37f with a NE wind gusting to 40. I am assuming pressure gradients are more easterly than northerly. More similar to the first November "event". Not a great setup for a Fraser river event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly most "rural" areas and "suburbs" away from the core of metro areas are getting worse across America in terms of drug use and depressed economic conditions. Small towns used to be good places to lives. Not anymore.

 

If I were to choose the midwest, I would go with Minneapolis. Out of all the places mentioned it is the most clean, progressive, and great for jobs oppurtunities.

 

Its true. While in Oklahoma recently I went out to the Tallgrass Prarie preserve in Osage County. Beautiful country with one of the largest bison herds in America. The town, Pawhuska, nearby is just a dump though. Sad really. For a town of a few thousand they have a large downtown core, but its mostly vacant now. 

[MossMan]

How's the Euro?

[MossMan]

Abbotsford is up to 37f with a NE wind gusting to 40. I am assuming pressure gradients are more easterly than northerly. More similar to the first November "event". Not a great setup for a Fraser river event.

Yes this seems very similar to the first dry November event. So glad I got 2.5" on the second event that stuck around for a week, otherwise 3 dry events in a row would have really been a heart breaker. I am very much looking forward to frozen ground this week, my yard was becoming quite mushy and muddy...don't have to clean off 16 muddy dog paws every time they come in from being outside!

[Snowman5678]

Lawrence averages quite a bit more than your location...I've never looked up Lawrence, but my wife grew up near Topeka and I looked up their average once and its around 30" I believe.

 

Topeka's average from 1980-2010 is 17.6" of snow. I average about 20" up here but i've only been here for about 10 years.

 

School is great, but I wouldn't be able to handle the valley climate. Too arid, scraping the bottom of the barrel for precip.

 

Best of luck to you, whatever choice you decide to make.

 

Yeah, I heard the inversions in the winter are pretty bad. Yeah their arid climate is a bit concerned. I don't know if I would like it or not, I do love the sun but it gets boring.

 

School quality is always the top priority. But if you're weighting winter climate, I'd definitely go with Michigan or New York mostly due to better large scale storm dynamics. You get a lot of 1-2" snows that make up SLC's average.

 

Have you by chance considered U.M.D? That's where I graduated from..great program and a very dynamic climate. Only downfalls are insane rush hour traffic, stifling summer humidity, and the occasional dud winter.

 

Yeah. Ideally I would like to end up back in new england (thats where I am from) but school quality is top priority. No, I didn't know that they had a good program, although I finished all my applications like a month in a half ago and im not sure if I want to do another one.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I won't contest the depressed economic conditions. However,  I'd take the crime rates of an eastern Oregon town over Portland's.  I know many people in John Day and none of them lock their houses or cars at night.

 

There have been some pretty high profile murders in Grant County. Crime happens everywhere there are people.

[Phil]

Best of luck to you, Matt. Choosing a school is one of the biggest decisions you'll make in your life. Don't follow your brain..follow your heart.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How bout those 12z GFS ensembles? Link anyone?

[Snowman5678]

Best of luck to you, Matt. Choosing a school is one of the biggest decisions you'll make in your life. Don't follow your brain..follow your heart.

 

Thank you very much Phil! Its a really difficult decision! At least I have 4ish more months to decide! I still have to tour a couple more schools too like SUNY Albany and the University of Alberta too before I decide. 

[Gradient Keeper]

How's the Euro?

Pretty bad... Westerlies break through after day 9

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty bad... Westerlies break through after day 9

Build some snow pack maybe.

[FroYoBro]

The fake front must be moving through. Getting very gusty winds all of a sudden. 

[paulstorm]

 

Stunningly gorgeous day in Seattle!

[liquidsnow]

The fake front must be moving through. Getting very gusty winds all of a sudden. 

It's warm rain as the storm track aims to the north.

[Deweydog]

It's warm rain as the storm track aims to the north.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Rav9ijyyZk

[MossMan]

Perhaps we will have a quick turn around much like what we had in November...arctic air, a week of zonal, then back in the icebox again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Arctic fronts with no temp gradient or drop behind the front are exciting aren't they!

[Deweydog]

Arctic fronts with no temp gradient or drop behind the front are exciting aren't they!

Not sure what you were expecting...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure what you were expecting...

 

IDK... Too much...

[Front Ranger]

I don't know. Depends on where I decide to go to college. Right now the possible locations are: 

Salt Lake City UT

Edmonton AB

Norman OK

Lawrence KS

Ann Arbor MI

Philadelphia PA

Albany NY

 

Pretty much all of them average more snow than Seattle.

 

Good lord, no. Any of the others would be better.

[Front Ranger]

The ONLY positive thing we got out of this cold shot was a decent dose of mountain snow. Other than that?....

.........

.....................

 

Some nice, crisp mid-winter sunshine? I know that was something I always enjoyed when I lived there.

 

Tomorrow night should be pretty chilly.

[BLI snowman]

Good lord, no. Any of the others would be better.

 

Edmonton is pretty cold. And they have a big mall.